You may recall that Osama’s video taped speech last January contained Al-Qaeda’s strategy for the near future. This article printed that same month describes the strategy and what success they have had:
Al-Qaeda has now achieved many of its targets, including the acquisition of various bases in the shape of small pockets. The leadership has safe havens in areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border areas, including Khost-North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Kunar-Chitral and Kunar-Bajur.
The areas in the South and North Waziristan tribal areas are the most significant as the Pakistan government has virtually lost its writ there. According to credible information, there is very little room left for Pakistani security agencies to move around beyond South Waziristan’s headquarters, Wana, and North Waziristan’s headquarters, Miramshah.
Pro-Taliban militants rule the roost here, and even local journalists cannot file stories without the prior approval of these militants. Other journalists simply are not allowed into the area. As a result, very little information filters out from North and South Waziristan.
Nonetheless, contacts in various jihadi organizations suggest that both North and South Waziristan have become hubs for all jihadi activities.
Hundreds of youths previously belonging to such organizations as the Laskhar-i-Toiba, Jaish-i-Mohammed, Harkat-i-Jihadi-i-Islami, Harkatul Mujahideen etc, left for bases in South and North Waziristan.
Here they receive fresh jihadi orientation, including both military and ideological training, and after a few months they are launched into Afghanistan. Their numbers run into the thousands.
The acquisition of these bases and fresh recruits are the prime successes of al-Qaeda as it prepares to wage its new battle. Bin Laden’s appearance confirms this to his followers.
Now that Pakistan has signed a truce with the Taliban in North Waziristan things look quite bleak. Three weeks ago I wrote about the fact that this truce may be Musharraf’s signal that our forces could enter Taliban terrirotory and engage Al-Qaeda but he made it clear soon after that this was not the case:
Visiting President Gen. Pervez Musharraf also said Pakistan would never allow U.S.-led coalition forces currently hunting al-Qaida and Taliban fighters on the Afghan side of the border into tribal areas on its side.
“On our side of the border there will be a total uprising if a foreigner enters that area,” he said. “It’s not possible at all, we will never allow any foreigners into that area. It’s against the culture of the people there.”
So what to do? Al-Qaeda already signed a truce with Pakistan in 2004 which quickly dissolved and they now control that area completely, even telling the Government that they cannot tax that which is un-Islamic:
The Taliban have warned federal government officials in South Waziristan against collecting import tax, as it is considered un-Islamic.
A senior administrative official on conditions of anonymity said Taliban commanders recently prevented them from collecting import tax from tribesmen.
“Taliban commanders visited the Jandola office of the political administration a few days ago, stopping them from collecting import tax from the tribesmen,” the Daily Times quoted a senior administration official as saying.
He said the Taliban considered tax collection as “un-Islamic” and told them in clear terms that tax collectors would face “serious consequences”.
And now he has signed a truce in North Waziristan, but with supposed conditions:
This deal is with the tribal elders of north Waziristan agency. And the deal has three bottom lines, which we fixed for ourselves. And this is very important, which I explained to the President.
Number one, there will be no al Qaeda activity in our tribal agency or across the border in Afghanistan. There will be no Taliban activity in our tribal agency or across in Afghanistan. There will be no Talibanization, which is an [obscurantist] way of life — no Talibanization. All these three have been agreed by the tribal elders who signed that deal. And when they signed the deal, they are honor-bound, and they have already strict honor code to not only abide by it, but also that whoever violates it, they’ll move against them.
But we saw how well the truce worked in the Southern portion of Waziristan, can we really believe him for this latest truce. I highly doubt it. I mean just look at his statement above where he says there will be NO Taliban activity…..but:
Three tribes along with the local Taliban have set up office in Miranshah to fight crime in the city, tribal sources said on Wednesday. “The Darpakhel, Burakhel and Miranshah tribes along with the Taliban have set up an office in Miranshah to bring law and order under control,” sources close to the Taliban told Daily Times. A senior leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) denied reports that the Taliban alone opened the office in violation of the peace agreement which aimed at preventing the Taliban from running a parallel administrative system.The office was opened on Wednesday and local residents expressed fears that the growing Taliban influence would undermine the tribal code of life. The locals criticised the government for “completely disappearing from the streets”. “There is no police to provide security which is why the crime rate has increased,”
So much for no Taliban activity huh? And this is just a few weeks after the truce was signed. Add in all this and the increased attacks against coalition forces on the border:
A U.S. military official said Wednesday that American troops on Afghanistan’s eastern border have seen a threefold increase in attacks since a recent truce between Pakistani troops and pro-Taliban tribesmen that was supposed to have stopped cross-border raids by the militants. The peace agreement, which followed a June 25 cease-fire, also has contributed to the Taliban’s resurgence, the U.S. official said, requesting anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Since the truce, ethnic Pashtun rebels are no longer fighting Pakistani troops but are using the North Waziristan border region as a control hub for launching attacks in Afghanistan, the official told The Associated Press.
And we can pretty much come to the conclusion that Al-Qaeda is gathering land and power in Pakistan, and we can’t do a damn thing about it except to invade that country.
Ed Morrissey believes we may not have much choice:
We refrained from pursuing terrorists into Pakistan for three reasons. First, it’s sovereign territory, and we didn’t want a war with Pakistan. Second, Musharraf assured us that he would pursue them himself, and for the first few years, he did. Lastly, any American incursions into Waziristan would have destabilized Musharraf and eliminated the assistance he provided us against the terrorists. Now that the second and third reasons no longer apply, it seems likely that we will not care anywhere near as much about Pakistani sovereignty or Musharraf’s status in Pakistan.
And I agree. We cannot let the Taliban and Al-Qaeda gain power in another country once again. They are slowly inching their way into Pakistan and with every passing day they gain power.
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