The Ukraine End Game

by The Z Man

One of the enduring truths about war is that the side that wins is usually the side that starts with a clear objective. That understanding of the goal allows for a strategy to accomplish the goal, which then becomes the framework for the tactics required to implement the strategy and win the war. Starting with the end in mind also allows for changes in strategy and tactics to account for the unknown unknowns that are always a part of a military conflict. No plan survives contact with the enemy.

We may be about to see this in the Ukraine war. From the start the Russians have had a very clear understanding of their interests in Ukraine. This predates the war by about a thousand years. Russia is a land power without natural barriers between itself and its neighbors, so the goal of Russian foreign policy since forever has been to maintain space between Russia and its neighbors. The Ukraine has always been part of that space controlled by the Russians.

This is why the Russians had clear demands at the start of the war. They wanted the Russian speaking areas liberated from Ukrainian control, they wanted Ukraine demilitarized and they wanted NATO out of Ukraine. When the war started, these goals did not have to change as they were the reason for the war. The Russians would simply have to do what was necessary to impose these ends. In other words, once the war started, the question was how not why.

This was not true on the other side. Ukraine did not want to go to war and was ready to take the deal on offer, until Washington sent Boris Johnson in to convince Zelensky to go to war in exchange for unlimited money and supplies. Ukraine started the war without any clear idea as to why they were fighting it because they had no clear objective, other than graft. Despite the rhetoric, “not losing” is not a goal that can lead to a successful and coherent war strategy.

The West has had a similar problem. Note that no one in the West is ever asked by the media why they are doing this. The reason for that is the answer would be incoherent jibber-jabber about abstract assertions. Defending a notorious kleptocracy in defense of democracy is obvious nonsense. The neocons, of course, have a real goal, but telling the world they want to bring about the end times is not good politics, so everyone just dances around the fact that there is no stated goal.

This is why the West is headed to a crisis over the war. Without a clear goal, there is no way to measure success. Without a way to measure success, there is no way to anticipate failure and adjust to it. The Russians avoided this my seeing early on that they had grossly miscalculated. They could see this because they had a clear understanding of what they wanted to achieve in the war. They set off on a yearlong process to revamp their strategy and tactics.

It is becoming clear even to the zombies in the Western media that Ukraine is going to lose the war on the battlefield. The Russians have been grinding away across the front and are now making increasingly swift advances. The reason for this is Ukraine is running out of men and material. Meanwhile, the Russian war machine continues to grow in size and lethality. There is growing speculation that the Russians are preparing a hammer blow this summer to break the Ukrainian army.

This is why we are seeing a growing panic in the West. They never imagined this as a possible outcome because they never thought about the end. They just assumed they could wish a loss on the Russians. It seems many in the West still think they can wish hard enough to change reality on the battlefield. The French actually initiated a call with the Russians, demanding the Russians quit and go home. Now the French want to send troops into Ukraine, which would be an act of madness.

Assuming the lunatics do not prevail and there is no nuclear war with Russia, the question now is what comes next? The one thing we know is the West will not have a lot of say in the outcome. This is not just because they are losing but primarily because they never imagined such a possibility. The reason for that is they have never been honest with themselves about why they are poking the bear. Like all the other pointless wars of choice, this one will end in adverse terms.

That is the question that will come to dominate this year. The Russians do have a plan and they have the means to implement it. While the Russians have not talked about what comes next, it is clear they will turn Ukraine into a demilitarized buffer zone with a government friendly to Moscow. This was the end they had in mind at the start of the war because it has been the Russian national interest for a millennium. How much of Ukraine remains in Ukraine at the end is unknown.

This is why the West is in a crisis. This war will make clear to everyone, especially Western citizens, that the West is in decline. France, Germany, and Britain are now on the same level as Denmark and Ecuador, as far as geopolitics. The real global powers will want to have friendly relations, but they will not consider them peers. In the new multipolar world, Europe is not one of the poles. Proof of that will be Russia dictating terms to the Europeans as to their future relations.

The psychological struggle that is about to unfold in the West is what is the great unknown in what is about to come. How will the typical Frenchman react when he realizes he is a citizen of a pipsqueak country? How will the typical flag-waving American feel when he realizes he no longer lives in a superpower, but in a regional power that is in steep decline? American exceptionalism takes on a whole new meaning when you are on the losing side of history.

The point is the end game in the Ukraine war will turn out to be much more than the final disposition of the country currently called Ukraine. The end game will be a reordering of the world and a necessary reordering of the Western view of itself and its role in the world. In other words, we are about to see a revolution in worldview, one no one anticipated in the West. Maybe this is why so many Western leaders seem to want a nuclear war. They cannot face what comes next.

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