‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached



Few prognosticators predicted a Donald Trump victory ahead of Tuesday night. Polls showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead, and much of America (chiefly the media) failed to anticipate the wave of pro-Trump support that propelled him to victory. But a Washington, D.C.-based professor insisted that Trump was lined up for a win — based on the idea that elections are “primarily a reflection on the performance of the party in power.”
Allan Lichtman uses a historically based system of what he calls “keys” to predict election results ahead of time. The keys are explained in-depth in Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016.” In our conversations in September and October, he outlined how President Obama’s second term set the Democrats up for a tight race, and his keys tipped the balance in Trump’s favor, even if just barely.
At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.
“I’m going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
So while Republican voters clearly came home before Nov. 8 — network exit polls show 90 percent of GOP voters cast ballots for Trump — it’s less clear that the party leadership is on board. (Lichtman actually isn’t the only person to predict a Trump impeachment; this morning, the New York Times’s David Brooks suggested a Trump impeachment or resignation was “probably” in the cards sometime within the next year.)
It’s worth noting that Lichtman’s predictions use very different methods than pollsters and data-based prognosticators. Some statisticians take issue with the structure of his system, a set of 13 true/false questions, saying that the binary nature of his keys leads to what’s called “overfitting,” which is basically creating a system that fits the data but has little statistical significance. But Lichtman counters by saying that the system has correctly predicted every election since 1984 (specifically, his predictions have picked the next president correctly in all of those elections but 2000, when he picked Al Gore, who won the popular vote). And Lichtman has his own criticism for data-based predictions.

Well….I wonder what the mystical monkey in China has to say on the impeachment prediction….

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someone needs to remind this intellecual pinhead the ingagartions not until january 2017

idiot is a registered deomrat. lost a senate race in maryland . Lichtman had a 17-show stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough. He won $100,000 during his time on the show. truly an academic lackey,

I knew in my heart Trump would win, hardly scientific. I also had a dream that I will win the power ball, not scientific either. Simply speculation and no different from this guy.

If Republicans get the opportunity to replace Trump with Pence, why wouldn’t they? Hell, if they could do it the first year, that could set up a R for the WH for a possible 11 years whereas Trump could very well toss it back to Dems in 2020.

And what’s to keep this undisaplined nightmare of a train wreck from giving then the opportunity to do so?

whats is going to be like during trumps ingaration in January 2017? mobs of uncivilized brutes storming through the streets rioting’ looting,burning and assualting the innocent? Thats the whole problem with the left their a violent bunch of spoiled little brats especialy these collage age idiots and their stupid adminastraors