Nate Silver Issues Dire Warning to Democrats About Biden

by Matt Margolis

Famed pollster Nate Silver isn’t kidding around anymore. He is now saying Democrats have a real problem on their hands with Joe Biden, and he’s admitting something publicly that many on the left have likely only been able to admit in private: Joe Biden should drop out.

“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday,” he wrote in a post on X/Twitter on Monday. “Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask.”

Silver had once considered Joe Biden the clear favorite in a rematch against Donald Trump. However, Silver’s outlook has shifted dramatically due to Biden’s persistently low approval ratings — despite economic improvements — and the undeniable issue of his advanced age.

This is hardly the first time Silver has warned that Joe Biden’s approval ratings were sub-par.

Back in February, Silver identified three key issues for Biden that have only gotten worse. First, Biden’s approval ratings are notably below the level that would typically secure re-election, and they show no improvement. Second, Biden lacks “contingencies that could improve his situation,” while Trump still dominated the polls despite his legal troubles. And, of course, Biden’s age was (and still is) a critical concern, with a substantial majority of Americans viewing him as too old for the presidency.

“If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite,” he said at the time. “But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he’s probably the underdog. If you’re someone who would rather not see Trump re-elected again or who cares about the election for other reasons, it’s time to face the facts. You need to adjust to the new reality and not be mired in anchoring bias by your previous impression of the race.”

It is now June, and can anyone say any of these problems have improved since? Not at all.

Though he didn’t say so explicitly, Silver appears to believe that it’s probably too late to replace Biden.

What's clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 10, 2024

Silver isn’t the only person stating publicly that Joe Biden shouldn’t have run. Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville told WABC on Sunday that Biden shouldn’t have run for reelection.

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