2012 Election Open Thread

The pre-election polls are hosed. I could believe it is close if the independents were closely divided but they aren’t. How does someone get 10% of the independents and be tied? I can’t recall ever seeing a close election where the independents were overwhelmingly for one candidate and that candidate lost.

Other, different polls show Obama getting more Republican support in 2012 than he got in 2008. I don’t buy that either. I would be perfectly willing to support that there was a tie IF the data internal to the poll supported it. It doesn’t.

Good to see you step back from your “I won’t support Romney” blather earlier this year, Curt.

We’ll put you down as inconsistent.

@Ivan: Nah, it’s a pretty liberal location. Looks like the population increased a little.

Only thing I can figure on some of these polls is that either we have some Democrats who are claiming to be Republicans voting for Obama or we have some Republicans who are claiming to be voting for Obama but really have no intention of doing that and are pulling the pollsters’ legs. That is the only thing that accounts for the number of crossovers the pollsters are reporting.

Romney – “Russia, this is, without question, our number one geopolitical foe. They – they fight every cause for the world’s worst actors.”

Blitzer – “But you think Russia is a bigger foe right now than, let’s say, Iran or China or North Korea? Is that – is that what you’re suggesting, Governor?”

Romney – “Well, I’m saying in terms of a geopolitical opponent, the nation that lines up with the world’s worst actors. Of course, the greatest threat that the world faces is a nuclear Iran. A nuclear North Korea is already troubling enough.

In the under-reported news department: A Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine cruised within 200 miles of the East Coast

One defense official said the submarine was believed to have been conducting anti-submarine warfare efforts against U.S. ballistic and cruise missile submarines based at Kings Bay, Georgia.

A second official said the submarine did not sail close to Kings Bay and also did not threaten a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group that was conducting exercises in the eastern Atlantic.

Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base, north of Jacksonville, Fla., is homeport for two guided missile submarines and six nuclear missile submarines. The submarines are known to be a target of Russian attack submarines.

Meanwhile, the officials also said that a Russian electronic intelligence-gathering vessel was granted safe harbor in the commercial port of Jacksonville, Fla., within listening range of Kings Bay.

The Russian AGI ship, or Auxiliary-General Intelligence, was allowed to stay in the port to avoid the superstorm that battered the U.S. East Coast last week. A Jacksonville Port Authority spokeswoman had no immediate comment on the Russian AGI at the port.

(Sigh)

Meanwhile, while Dems gripe about ID requirements “disenfranchising voters”A group of Republican senators said Monday that thousands of voter ballots are unlikely to reach military service members until after Nov. 6.

@Nathan Blue:

Tons of original thoughts. But today the time for debating issues is over, for now. I’m off to cast my vote. Hope you are too, or have already.

I just got back from voting. I’m in one of those swing states, Va. The polling place was busier than I had ever seen it. A number of comments to that effect from others nearby as we chatted and stood in line awaiting our chance. A steady stream of people coming in as the line progressed, with the looks on peoples faces of surprise when they came through the door and saw the crowd.
My area is usually a republican leaning area anyway, but this turnout is much more than I expected. Don’t know if it means anything but it’s what I saw.

Just got two reports from relatives and friends in other counties and neighboring state… Polling places are packed…unlike anything they’ve seen before as well… Something may be up…

This election will do more than elect people to office. It will answer questions as to the state of the national psyche and the reliability of media.

1. Where does America stand politically? The common argument is the country is slightly right of center politically. If Romney wins, that theory will be validated. An Obama victory is different. Unlike 2008, it is now well established that he is well to the left of center. Should he be re-elected, it will be safe to say that America is no longer slightly right of center, but has moved left of center.

2. How divided is America? There is no question this country is divided. Since the 1992 election, with the exception of 2008 which was probably a fluke, the person winning did so with a small majority or in the case of Clinton and Bush in 2000, less than 50% of the popular vote. Up until 1992, the majority of those winning the WH did so by comfortable margins. The last time the country was this divided was the 1800’s. During Antebellum America, the country was divided along economic and constitutional lines. Obviously the intensity of that division was high because it culminated in the Civil War. Post Civil War, the country was still divided but the reasons were more economic in nature such as farmers and ranchers vs. the railroad and industry. There were riots but no civil war so the intensity wasn’t as high. The closer this election, the more divided we will be. This division is along economic and constitutional lines. The left wants Eurosocialism, redistribution of wealth, and a weakened Constitution. The right wants to preserve the Constitution and traditional American values. The deeper the division, the only way for either to be happy and get their way would be splitsville. Yes, secession.

3. Has America lowered its standards? This election is a referendum on Obama. If re-elected it’ll mean the majority of Americans have accepted 8% plus stated unemployment, trillion dollar deficits, and a very divisive self centered style of leadership as the norm all of which are lower standards.

4. How accurate were the pundits? As late as yesterday, pundits on both sides were predicting landslide victories for their candidates. Should their candidate win by a small margin or worse yet lose, their reputations and credibility will be gone. The stakes for them are very high. Beware Dick Morris, Wayne Allyn Root, Paul Krugman, and the pundits at HuffPo to name a few.

5. What will the impact be on the MSM and pollsters? The results of the election will show if and how skewed the polls were. A Romney victory, especially if by a healthy margin, will show that pollsters and the MSM engaged in malicious polling and reporting. It could and should be the final nail in the coffin for them.

Off to vote.

Politico “Battleground” poll shows Romney up 15 points with indies but tied. Impossible. What is interesting about that final GMU poll is if you dig down into page 86 of the poll data crosstabs you see 24% of people who describe themselves as a “soft Dem” saying they are undecided along with 15% of “ticket splitters”. “Soft GOP” is only 9% undecided. That’s huge.

@another vet: Tom, I think that there is another issue regarding race and flimflam. Some were hoodwinked by the teleprompter. I think the popular vote rather than the electoral vote will determine which of your criteria is valid.

@Mully: Mully, you are in a swing states, Va. The polling place was busier than I had ever seen it.

Well, we are in a safe blue state for Obama.
And while we voted Absentee weeks ago, I have watched people here in the condos come and go to vote.
It is VERY FAST.
That indicates a scant line, if one at all.
Last election I drove Republicans to their polling places and back.
This year I can’t.
But if the lines are short in a left-leaning state it means turnout is going to be light.
Again, CA went for Obama in the 20% range in 2008.
Last poll I saw showed it going for him by “only” 14% this time.
As dispirited as Obamites here are with the high unemployment and high prices I wonder how many of them will sit home.

I GOT IT E.C BHO 277- Romney 261. Pop vote Romney 50.6- BHO 49.3 Senate 52D – 48R.

@Liberal1 (Objectivity):

Your point?
Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while…even you.

Tell me how great things are going in Greece right now…and the prospects for Spain, where the Reign is circling the Drain…to paraphrase the song.

@johngalt: You are a tad less cynical than I am with regards to #1. In 2008, Obama had everything going for him- Bush fatigue, a weak challenger who had little money and ran a bad campaign, and he a rock star status. Then he was an unknown commodity. Now he is not. Romney has run a good campaign overall and has looked and acted far more presidential than Obama. Therefore a loss wouldn’t be a reflection on a weak challenger but an embrace of the incumbent’s record. About the only explanation would be that the country is veering left and has accepted lower standards. Adding millions to the government handout rolls also helps because it buys votes.

As for a Romney victory, there is no doubt the media will begin to undermine him ASAP and they will come up with all sorts of excuses for their polls but their credibility (if they have any left amongst those of us who aren’t lefties) will be tarnished for a very long time. No matter who wins, the next POTUS will inherit a big mess with the deficits, unemployment, a nuclear armed Iran or war in the ME, a reinvigorated AQ, a possible recession, and he will have to deal with an obstructionist in charge of the Senate unless the R’s can manage to gain control or the D’s replace him as Majority Leader. This could be a case where the winner is the loser.

@Curt:

Ha! I don’t have the time to do some elaborate search function. You know damn well you ragged his ass in the winter/spring.

Go ahead, kick my ass off. See if I care. You think I’ll be busted up by your inconsistent neo-con threats?

Boo-phucking-hoo.