Last night our lawmakers got a deal done to balance the budget and raise the debt limit. A powerpoint was released by Boehner’s officer:
But here are the highlights from Jake Tapper:
- More than $900 billion in deficit reduction over 10 years through discretionary spending caps . $350 billion of that comes from the Pentagon;
- Debt limit increased by at least $2.1 trillion — through 2013…see below for more on how that happens;
- Bipartisan super-committee is tasked with finding $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction by November 23 presumably through tax and entitlement reform. There will be 12 members of the super-committee. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., each get to pick three members;
- Congress must vote on recommendations made by the bipartisan Congressional deficit reduction committee by December 23;
- If Congress fails to pass the committee proposal, triggers are enacted that spur at least $1.2 trillion in cuts and those will be close to 50/50 split between domestic/defense spending. But the triggers exempt cuts to Social Security, Medicare beneficiaries and low income programs. The cuts will take effect on January 2, 2013.
The way the debt ceiling is raised is very complicated:
- Immediately after passage of this bill, the president certifies the US government is within $100 billion of hitting the debt ceiling and is given authority to raise the debt ceiling by $400 billion.
- That also triggers a request to increase the debt ceiling by $500 billion — with a process in which Congress can vote to disapprove. The expected outcome: the president vetoes the disapproval, Congress fails to override the veto, and the President is given the authority to raise the debt ceiling by $500 billion.
- The second tranche comes in December. If the super-committee fails to produce a path to reduce the deficit by $1.5 trillion, or Congress fails to pass it, the president makes a request for the authority to raise the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion. Congress votes to disapprove, the president vetoes it, Congress fails to over-ride the veto, he gets the authority to raise the debt ceiling by $1.2 trillion.
- OR the super-committee succeeds in finding anywhere between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction and Congress passes it. The president automatically is given the authority to raise the debt ceiling by an equal amount, with no disapproval process.
Lots of people from both sides of the aisle like the deal, or like it just enough to give it a yes vote. Of course it hasn’t been voted on yet but I find it unlikely that they would even schedule a vote if they thought they couldn’t get it through. Biden was conferring with both chambers to ensure they have the necessary votes and Boehner has supposedly scheduled a vote for 2pm EST. But all that can change if it seems the votes aren’t there.
Like Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson:
“Even right now we are supposedly talking about a deal that will be $2.4-trillion worth,” Johnson said. “Think about what that is: $2.4-million-million worth. You just have a couple people negotiating this. I mean, it is ridiculous. We’re talking about the federal government’s budget here.”
One of the problems, he said, was that the deal didn’t meet the rating agencies’ requirements for the federal government to hold on to its pristine debt rating.
“Here’s the first problem — the rating agencies, everybody is keying in on that,” Johnson said. “You know, they say we need $4 trillion, you know, to afford it, to avoid a downgrade in our debt. This is only going to be about $2.4 trillion.”
The freshman Wisconsin Republican, who was an accountant before coming to Washington, said there was some fuzzy math in the first few years of the deal.
“Let’s put it a different way then: What is happening right now is we have doubled spending in just the last 10 years,” Johnson said. “Ten years ago we spent $1.8 trillion. This year we will spend $3.6 trillion, and more. What the president’s budget would do after 10 years: Increase that from $3.7 to $5.7 trillion. He would spend $46 trillion. And all we are doing is lowering that by, what, $900 billion?
“We have got to begin controlling spending in Washington. This is business as usual. I mean, this is a spending culture in Washington and it is bankrupting America. I came here to see if I could do something about changing this culture.”
The problem with the deal, he said, was that it was too small on a relative basis.
“This is totally inadequate,” Johnson said. “You know, it’s sad: It may be a step in the right direction but it is not fixing the problem.
In the House there are some conservatives who have already stated they will not vote for the bill such as Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.)
“I am probably a no,” freshman Rep. Joe Walsh, R-Ill., a tea party favorite, told Fox News. ” … We need a bold solution and this isn’t it.”
and Rep. Louis Gomert (R-Tex.).
Rep. Louie Gohmert, of Texas, one of the few remaining holdouts, emerged from a caucus meeting Wednesday feeling the pain McCarthy promised. “I’m a beat-up ‘no,'” he reported.
Much of the opposition is because of the possible cuts to defense which take effect if Congress fails to follow through with recommendations the “special commission” gives to reduce the deficit.
Completely understandable because any cuts to defense is totally inappropriate. But the Democrat yes votes will more then make up for any incoming no votes from conservatives so in the end I think we have a deal done and voted on by this evening.
UPDATE
Michael New from the Cato Institute likes the deal:
…I am on largely board with Speaker Boehner’s compromise debt-ceiling plan. Politics is the art of the possible, and this plan avoids a government shutdown while offering some spending cuts with no real tax hikes. As most NRO readers know, the long-term fiscal health of this country depends largely on entitlement reform. Unfortunately, the Obama administration never really proposed anything serious in this regard.
On the good side, the spending limits are a positive development. Spending limits can be useful at reinforcing a broad consensus to limit the growth of government. Furthermore, when budget deficits are a salient political issue, Congress has shown the ability to limit non-defense discretionary spending. Adjusting for inflation, non-defense discretionary spending actually fell during the 1980s. In fact, between 1981 and 1996, non-defense discretionary spending increased by only three percentage points in real terms.
…Overall, in the absence of Obamacare, I might have urged the Republicans to take a harder line in these negotiations. However, as I have argued previously, the best thing that could happen for the long-term fiscal health of this country is a repeal of Obamacare. If the 2012 elections are about the faltering economy and Obamacare, Republicans have a good chance to win. Conversely, a focus on Medicare and entitlement reform would not work to the advantage of Republican candidates. Since the window of opportunity to repeal Obamacare will probably close after the 2012 elections, Republicans would do well to accept this compromise and not risk the political fallout that might accompany a partial government shutdown.
UPDATE
Everyone is proud of Boehner it appears and some Republicans who said they were going to vote no yesterday, will vote yes today:
“I’m doing great.” So said Speaker John Boehner as he left this afternoon’s GOP conference meeting. He was all smiles, for good reason: Numerous House Republicans appear to be supportive of the debt-limit deal and of Boehner’s leadership, just days after his speakership was potentially in peril during a tense vote for his revised debt-ceiling plan. “I’m pretty amazed that he got the deal he got,” says Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), the Budget Committee chairman.
“We are going to be okay,” says Rep. Allen West (R., Fla.), a tea-party star who supports the deal. He denies that Boehner is in trouble with conservatives. “No, he is not,” West says. “The president is in trouble — the president surrendered.”
Freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.) admits to being disappointed with the final deal, “to a degree.” Still, he says, conservatives should not be throwing a tantrum. “We fought a fight as hard as we could fight,” he says. “This thing will probably pass today. I am not going to vote for it. But look at how the world has changed.” In that, he says, “I take heart.”
Looking at the big picture, Walsh adds, “this is clearly a win for all these troublesome conservative Republicans who came here to change the world.” Boehner, he notes, retains his popularity behind closed doors. “Everyone in that room loves him,” he says.
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R., Utah) confirmed the love-fest. “In fact, I stood up at the end and said, I could not be more proud of how our leadership has handled this,” he says. “Even to those of us who oppose the bill, he has been exceptionally good. I am a bigger supporter of John Boehner now than I’ve ever been.”
UPDATE
See author page
@MataHarley:
Mata, Thank you, thank you for showing that I called it.
Treason is a form of mental instability. I called it. Nailed it.
Let’s see who stuck up for the bastard, shall we?
I’ll let those who did admit their guilt now.
Don’t make me call you guys out.
;->
Aye said on post #33 of the January thread:
Ha! I knew Aye stuck up for the treasonous bastard!
Still want to stick up for the prick, Aye?
Tell you what, Aye, just admit you were wrong (again) and I’ll let it go.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
*sigh*
I guess Ivan really IS dumb as a bag of hammers…
…and too cowardly to post his “warnings” of Boehner, but no worries, Mata did the heavy lifting for him and showed us that instead of warning about Boehner & the Republicans, he gave them a pass:
You were close on that one, Ivan. Except the only joke here is you.
Why don’t you go sit at the kids’ table? The grownups are trying to talk.
As far as I saw in the archives, you’re johnny-come-lately-for your criticism, Ivan. You defended the GOP negotiations cave in by accepting additional spending during the Bush tax policies in Dec, as I posted. You gave no “warnings” about Boehner, save the man offends your personal sense of what a “real man” is. He’s the male version of Palin to you… want to watch Ivan reveal his true self? Post something about either Palin or Boehner. Ironic since, when it comes to them, you’re just a bundle of chaotic emotions yourself, and base your politics on the same. How very liberal and soft of you… that’s generally their trait – politics based on emotions and personalities.
Being an emotional RINO is not treason, oh naive one… and your reason for calling Boehner mentally unstable was based on nothing but the fact he tear’ed up. You didn’t bring up his specifics of leadership failure a month before… oh, that’s right. That’s because you defended him and the GOP. You simply didn’t like the idea that he cried.
You were labeled the cyber village idiot in that thread then, and still hold that title without competition.
Urban dictionary definition of both irony and chutzpah = Ivan, talking about any kind of honor or dishonor. You’re a cowardly ferret who likes to launch personal stabs as “the knife in the back” – i.e. against me on this thread, when I was not around – propelled by lies and mistruths. A lie that I have since corrected, and still you have no “honor” in correcting your error… let alone issuing an apology.
That you think any of us aren’t aware of the GOP failings is a testament to your lack of insight to others… Such lack of intuition also exhibits a huge vacuum in reading comprehension, combined with a desperate need to elevate yourself to a perceived intellectual pedestal you could only achieve in your dreams.
Quite frankly, IMHO, you aren’t worth the bandwidth you suck up in cyberspace with your drivel. If there’s one thing I’ve pegged about you already, Ivan, it’s that you are *not* the purveyor of sage quotable quotes… as you are wont to believe… but a peddler of hatred and disdain towards all.
@anticsrocks: #103
When you said, “Ivan IS dumb as a bag of hammers…” your are insulting the hammers. They are a USEFUL tool.
@Smorgasbord: Oops!
*stands up while at his computer*
I “stand” corrected!! 😆
Thanks Smorgs 🙂
@Smorgasbord:
Hey, Ivan IS a useful tool; for the Alinskyites.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
The US debt to GDP is not terrible by either historical or international standards. Its not great, but there are plenty of countries much worse.
@flooding (#108): I agree. It’s crazy how the debt/GDP ratio has been turned into a national EMERGENCY. Nothing will kick the debt/GDP into an accelerating upward spiral faster than a second recessionary dip. The debt is a long term problem. Congress and the President did the nation (and the economy) a huge disservice by wasting so much time (and further rattling the financial markets) on the interminable squabbles over spending and taxing policies, with resulting actions having minimal effects until off into the future.
They should have tabled this debate until the recovery was in full steam, once it was apparent that a true agreement wasn’t going to be forthcoming. All that was needed was a clean debt ceiling increase, unencumbered by the political add-ons. Same thing with the ongoing FAA debacle. Politicians shooting at each other but just shooting more holes into the economy.
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA
You’re dreaming, and over simplifying, Larry. Both rating agencies and investors cast wary eyes not just on the debt ceiling. In fact, there was never a doubt it would be raised… since it was made plain that both parties knew it had to be raised. The political party streetwalkers were merely negotiating their prices for that service, while creating a political farce for campaign purposes.
If you took some time to listen to the financial news coverage, they are quick to tell you that the market is responding to several things… that Bernanke isn’t obligating to QE3 (which gave it a mild bump when the rumor was floated), that the US debt is still out of control and that the future of increased taxes is still unfriendly to growth. And this includes increased costs because of O’healthcare, the promise to allow the Bush tax policies to expire, and the long projection of unemployment and stagnant growth. Needless to say Q2 economic figures, plus week after week of more bad economic stats, tend to belie that the Zero’s “recovery summer” ever arrived at all…. let alone late. Pile on with Europe in not much better shape, and the bailing is happening because they fear a global recession.
Not one of the above factors would be changed with what you call a “clean debt ceiling” raise.
Nor is the debt ceiling the only component of the US credit rating. Because S&P warned that anything less than $4 trillion in budget cuts will likely mean the U.S. loses its top AAA rating. Maybe with a bit of luck, the rest of the world will still look so bad that we’ll still smell like a fake plastic rose after all.
openid.aol.com/runnswim,
yes the y where trying the REPUBLICAN GOPS TEA PARTY THAT IS,
BUT THEY HAD A REFUSAL EVERY TIME FROM OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATS, WHO WANTED TO PLAY POLITIC AND CEASE THE OPPORTUNITY, WHILE THEY WHERE STALLING THE OTHER PARTYS,
YOU SAID THEY SHOULD HAVE HAD A CLEAR DEBT RAISE ARE YOU BOTH KIDDING?
WITH ALL THE ASTRONOMIC EXPENSES THEY WHERE TO RUIN THE COUNTRY IF NOT STOP,
AND THAT WAS NOT EVEN WHAT THE SHOULD HAVE HAD, THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE CUTS AS THIS TEAR END, BUT THE ONE WORKING ON THE PLAN ,THE CONSERVATIVES MUST HAVE WANTED TO REASSURED THE AMERICANS THAT HAD BEEN THREATEN FROM OBAMA AND DEMOCRATS ON THE MEDIA, AS BOEMER SAID BEFORE, THE DEAL WILL PASS BEFORE THE DATE OF AUGUST SECOND, AND THEY DID IT IN EXTREMIST FOR THE SAKE OF ALL WHO WHERE STRESSED BY THE PUBLICITY FULL OF WARNING FROM THE DEMOCRATS, A REAL FRENZY OF INSANITY COMING FROM DEMOCRATS TO SCARE THE PUBLIC
MATA, you said it better for sure, FUNNY I SWEAR i WAS STILL LISTENING TO DONALD TRUMPS
WITH GRETA ON FOX JUST NOW, AND HE REALY HAD SOMETHING ON THE TABLE FOR THEM
HE WAS PASSIONATE ABOUT HIS ANSWERS, AND I HEARD HIM SAY THAT IF HE FINDS THERE IS NO ONE SUITABLE TO TAKE THE PRESIDENCY, AT THE END , HE WILL GO FOR IT,
HE KNOWS THE ANSWERS AND SAID THAT AMERICA NEED A SUPER PRESIDENT TO MOVE THINGS AND THAT THIS ONE HAS TO GO, CHECK IT UP ON VIDEO WITH GRETA I THINK HE IS THE ONE TO MOVE THE CROWD AND WAKE UP EVERY BODY, HE SAID I LOVE MY WORK BUT I LOVE AMERICA FIRST.
BYE
Mata explains conventional wisdom:
Funny thing about luck — it’s a four letter word which sometimes happens, along with that other four letter word.
What the biggest news on a day when the Dow drops 500 points?
The rush to buy T bills. A T bill buying panic. Long term rates plunging. Short term rates dropping BELOW ZERO (i.e. financial institutions around the world paying the US Treasury to hold their money).
The Tea Party convinces the GOP that the debt increase is an EMERGENCY. It must be solved NOW. It must be solved TODAY. Nothing else matters. Government spending must be slashed to the bone. IN THE MIDDLE OF A STALLED ECONOMY.
The reason the economy is stalled isn’t because Corporate America and our indigenous oligarchs lack sufficient capital. They (large corporations, financial institutions — thanks to TARP — and oligarchs) are all rolling in dough.
Let’s have a thought experiment. Let me stipulate, for the purpose of a thought experiment, that the debt increase is a true EMERGENCY. But we are sliding into a recession, once again, because of a lack of consumer demand (consumption being the driver of the American economy for decades), and NOT because of a lack of corporate, financial, and individual capital. So, for purposes of the thought experiment, what’s more harmful to the economy?
1. Cutting government aid to state and local governments, leading to a rise in college tuitions, etc., and the need for more local fees and local taxes from ordinary Americans, who provide the consumption necessary to unstall the economy? Cutting unemployment benefits, putting more of burden on states which can’t sell T bills, the way the Federal government can? and so on. Laying off Federal workers, e.g. the FAA?
2. Or bringing higher end taxes back to where they were in the 90s?
Remember, this is just a thought experiment. If the the debt increase really was an EMERGENCY, which of the above would do more to prolong the economic stall?
Personally, at this precise moment in time, I’d be very selective. Very selective tax increases. Very selective spending cuts. Tax where it won’t harm the recovery. Don’t cut where it will harm the economy.
Were it politically impossible to to these things, then I’d just raise the dang debt ceiling and kick the can until after the next elections. That’s what the concept of the “clean” debt increase entails.
The economic EMERGENCY IS the stalled recovery. The economic EMERGENCY is NOT the rising debt.
The fight over the debt extension was a disgrace and a farce, in these hard economic times.
Warnings of America turning into Greece comprised the most intentionally scaremongering expressions of hysteria since the national theatrical opening of “An Inconvenient Truth.”
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
Just one small problem with your entire post, Larry. THERE ARE NO SPENDING CUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cutting the RATE of spending increases is not the same thing as cutting spending, and you know this.
Hence, the below will not happen next year, or the year after, or the year after that, or even the year after that, and so on, etc., infinity;
And, this;
is about the stupidest thing the government could possibly do at this point. The government is NOT the economy. Taking more money out of private enterprise, during the current economic climate, is just plain stupid.
And;
The reason companies are sitting on “piles of cash” at the moment is that despite the liberal/progressive talking point of the economy recovering, the uncertainty in the marketplace is driving companies to hold on to capital without investing in expansion in their companies, meaning no jobs.
@John: I tried to make it clear that I was only engaging in a thought experiment. IF the debt were an emergency, then what would be the best way to approach it? You can’t tell me that there are no loopholes which could be closed without harming the economy, anymore than I could claim that there is no spending which could be cut without harming the economy.
But if I couldn’t convince you and you couldn’t convince me, then the best thing would not have been spending the last three months scaremongering about morphing into Greece but to just pass a clean debt increase until after the election (when, hopefully, political sanity, meaning a modicum of pragmatic bipartisanship, may return or else where the GOP gets a mandate to do what it wants).
The last three months has been nothing but disgraceful pre-election posturing, to the detriment of the economy, through scaring would be consumers bat-s—. The economic problem is a consumption problem and everything which has happened during this particular cat fight has done nothing, save to scare would be consumers. That’s a far bigger problem than scaring investors and corporations with “uncertainty.”
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA
I call bullshit on the entire friggin process. Are you telling me that our government could not survive a 10%, across the board cut and a freeze in the increase of the baseline of the federal budget?
When I, or any other American is out of money at the end of the month, we don’t go to the bank and get them to raise our debt limit!!!
Grow up, politicians and live in the real world with the rest of us.
Or find a new job.
@Larry
Uh, No, that was President Obama Geitner and the MSM, not the Tea Party. The Tea Party is against debt increases.
Uh, No. It’s because corporate America is under regulatory attack by fanatical fer-left political appointees to federal regulatory agencies under the direction of an anti-business presidential administration. I notice that you don’t mind the scare tactics that the Democrats have been using for decades , telling the elderly that they want to take away their social security and that they want to trow poor people out on the street.
YVAN you have the 100 comment, congratulation ,
BYE
@ditto:
You misunderstood. I’m sorry. I wasn’t clear. My statement was that the increasing debt (not need for increased borrowing authority) was made by the Tea Party into an EMERGENCY. In other words, in the middle of the great economic stall, it’s a good idea to make job number one deficit reduction, to prevent further debt increase.
The rising debt is a very long term problem, which is in no way contributory to the current economic stall, which is a problem of consumer confidence, much more than a problem of investor confidence.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence
Please note the timing of the crash.
The Tea Party convinced the GOP that the EMERGENCY was long term debt increase. The true problem is that consumer confidence went down into the toilet, beginning in January, 2008, and it has yet to recover, and, therefore, consumer spending has yet to recover, and, therefore, the economy has yet to recover — consumption being the true driver of the American economy.
All this Tea Party driven scaremongering has done is to keep a big fat thumb down on the consumer confidence scale.
Quoting me:
You retort:
That’s a slogan, not an explanation. When — precisely — did the economy crash? Did it crash because of too much regulation?
That’s a straw man. We aren’t talking about tactics in prior political campaigns. If you want to talk tactics, I’ll agree that scaremongering is wrong. Entitlement scaremongering is wrong. Climate scaremongering is wrong. Terrorism scaremongering is wrong. Anti-Islamic scaremongering is wrong. Debt scaremongering is wrong.
What did I leave out? No matter, it’s wrong, whatever I left out. Scaremongering is wrong.
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA
Ditto, I was reading at fox news that OBAMA want to cut a big chunk in the MILITARY,he might even touch on the retired trilateral funds on one group of them,he start with them, before cutting on civilians
government jobs that are duplicated and some triplicated, like MATA mentioned before,
imagine in a time of them putting their life on danger in the war he himself is keeping alive and duplicating in other places, that is the ultimate of selfishsness and cowardise.
I think he doesn’t want to cut in government jobs because he doesn’t want to go against the UNIONS, HIS FRIENDS AND SUPPORTER ON ELECTION DAY WITH LOTS OF MONEY.
@Larry
That’s funny, I don’t think anything in my post said that the economy had crashed. (looking again) Nope, look’s like Larry’s putting words in my mouth. Yes, the stock market just took a big hit, but the economy did not crash. And by the way, it wasn’t a “slogan” (I don’t use “talking points”) it’s the facts Jack, and you will find ample corporate executives who have been quite vocal about the Presidency’s increased regulatory agenda. I guess you don’t read Forbes or US News And World Report or The Hill or you can read the words of the National Association of Manufacturers (You will note that I left out conservative reports,) This administration’s policies are anti-corporate, pro-union, and are purposely firing up the flames of class warfare.
It a “straw man” argument only if you want to evade the truth in that all during this “Debt Crisis” Democrats (including Obama,) made ample use of the very same form of scare tactics. They brought them in, that makes it relevant to the discussion.
This “Debt Crisis” became an “EMERGENCY” because Obama needed another crisis to take the press’ attention off the gunrunner scandal.
That’s what you said. The economy is stalling because of far left regulation and anti-business stuff.
No, that’s not the reason. It’s a consumer economy and consumers aren’t spending because they are afraid of the future. The Tea Party has done all it could to foster this fear. They’ve done far more harm to the current economy than anything Obama and the Dems have done.
– Larry W/HB
@floodingupeconomics: #108
Don’t take this the wrong way. If we use other country’s standards, then we have NOTHING to complain about. If we use that philosophy, then we would also have to incorporate all of the world’s laws into our laws. We have always been the greatest country in the world BECAUSE we didn’t use other country’s standards. At least, not until recently.
@anticsrocks: #116
Hopefully, there will be a lot of politicians looking for a new job after their next election.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim: #119
Let’s keep in mind that the Tea Party is not one organization. The main Tea Party is called the Tea Party Patriots. All other Tea Parties look to them for guidance, but each Tea Party is separate and can leave the Tea Party Patriots organization any time. If any of the Tea Parties disagrees with the Tea Party Patriots, then they can disassociate themselves from it any time. The fact that there are many thousand of groups staying with them means that there are many millions of us who agree with them. There are many other organizations who havent’t joined the Tea Parties, but agree with their idea of less government and lower taxes.
When over 1,000,000 and possibly 2,000,000 of us went to Washington DC 0n 9-12-2009, that means there are many times more than that that want less government and lower taxes but couldn’t make it. In my opinion, the only ones who want the increase in the borrowing and increase in spending are, Federal workers who want to keep their jobs (at 40% higher than the civilian average for the same job), those on welfare, and those who want the USA to spend itself into bankruptcy so it can be overthrown.
@ilovebeeswarzone: #120
Let’s look at it differently. Let’s pretend that Obama wants to overthrow the USA. How would he do it? Think about that for a while before you read any further. How would he do it?
Now, look at what he IS doing and compare it to what you came up with.
SMORGASBORD,
HI, the fact that is preventing many AMERICANS and among them ,even some we think are working fo the interest of AMERICA’s fondation pillars of CENTURIES THAT HAS KEPT ALL SAFE, AT THE COST OF SO MUCH BLOOD AND DEATH OF THE BRAVEST TO SUPPORT IT AND PUT THEIR LIFE ON THE FRONT LINE TO KEEP THEIR OATH TO STAND FOR AMERICA’S FREEDOM AND WRITTEN IN THE CONSTITUTION AND THE BILL OF RIGHT,
the fact is , It’s unbelieveble this could happen, It never occur in the mind of AMERICAN THAT THE POSSIBILITY TO HAPPEN IS THERE, SO , IF SOME SAY IT WILL, AND ON THE PATH TO HAPPEN,
THE NEXT LOGIC THOUGHT IS VERBALIZE BY A RESPONSE ,NEGATIVE,
AND THEREFOR SOME ARE CONCERNED EVEN IF THEY NEGATE IT, AND BEGIN TO OBSERVE THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF HAVING AMERICA CHANGE FOREVER, AS OBAMA SAID IN HIS MANY SPEECHS THIS AS FAR AS WHEN HE SEEK TO BE THE LEADER, WITH THE DEMOCRATS TO PROPULSE HIM TO A WIN THAT WAS NOT NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE DELIRIUM OF THE VOTERS,
THERE WAS THE NUMBER ONE FACT, THAT RANG THE BELL FOR THE SMART CONSERVATIVES WHO SAW THAT FROM ALL PART OF AMERICA, AND COULD NOT AVERT THE OUTCOME BECAUSE OF THE SELLING TACTICS EMPLOYED BY DISHONEST SUBLIMINAL MESSAGES BOMBARDING THE MASSES
MIX WITH MESSAGES OF THE RACE CARD, THAT IT’S NOT PROPER TO QUESTION A PERSON WHICH IS BLACK, NOT TO OFFEND HIM AND THE BLACK AMERICANS ,EVEN IF HIS IDENTITY WAS NOT SHOWN CLEARLY WITHOUT A DOUBT, EVEN THAT HE REFUSE TO DO IT, AS THEY QUESTION MR MCAIN WHO STATED HIS PROOF OF BEING ELLIGIBLE TO SEEK THE HIGHEST POSITION OF THIS LAND
NO WE MUST BELIEVE IN HIM THAT REPEATED THE MESSAGE OF THE CHANGE AMERICA,
HIS INTENT WAS CLEAR BUT THEY HIDE IT IF THERE WAS DOUBT FROM OTHER, THEY THE MEDIA DEMONYZE THE PERSON, JUST REMEMBER SARAH PALIN BEING SO DEMONISE BY THOSE IN THE MEDIA THAT WANTED TO SILENCE HER, BECAUSE SHE DARED TO TELL THE TRUTH
AND STATED THE DOUBTS SHE SAW TO WARN THE MASSES,
THEY WOULDN’T LISTEN, THEY HAD SOLD THEIR SOUL TO HIM THE SAVIOR
PROMISSING TO PAY FOR THEIR GAZ AND OTHER,
THE MEDIA HAD DONE THEIR JOBS THEY WHERE EXTATIC
AND NOW YOU CANNOT SEE THE POSSIBILITY THAT AMERICA IS SELF DESTROYING,
AND THE TEA PARTY ARE NOT EXISTING , THEY ARE NOT REAL PEOPLE WHO LOVE AMERICA,
THOSE WHO HAVE WARNED BEFORE ARE NOT THERE WORKING TO TO TELL THE PEOPLE OF THE RED LIGHT ON NOW, NO THEY ARE HOBBIT LIVING IN THE MIDDLE EARTH,
THE PEOPLE IS STILL UNDER THE CLOUD OF INFACTUATION, ALTHOUGH
MANY ARE COMING OUT OF IT AND ARE SEEING THE REAL PERSON IS JUST NOT QUALIFIED FOR THIS,
AMERICA’S BORDERS ARE STILL WIDE OPEN AND THEY WANT TO GIVE THEM THE RIGHT TO VOTE WHO? ; THE ILLEGALS,
TAKE IT OUT OF THE MILITARY AND GIVE IT TO ILLEGALS
SO THEY CAN VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS
@ilovebeeswarzone: #128
The liberals have many things on their side, the propaganda media, the TV shows and movies that throw in jabs at conservatives and are using more cuss words than ever, even some churches are promoting liberals. As I have mentioned before, this is how the USA and other countries have overthrown other countries without firing a shot. If we can do it to other countries, why can’t they do it to us, and are they?
Smorg and Bees Gonna start calling you Oliver.
Larry, I’m not chagrined the Dow is down in the low to mid 11’s. Could be considerably worse, and this bull run of the past was always bolstered up by free government injected cash, parlayed with little risk by corporations benefitting from that injected cash. As the financial talking heads point out today, those flush with cash are buying back shares instead of hiring…. a safer bet in their opinion.
It was that four letter word of “luck” that staved off a true emergency… a mass exodus from the t-note. And that luck, unfortunately, lies with cheering on the fiscal woes of the Euro-zone. As long as we look better than them, we will remain on top. But it’s still the top of the dung heap where we are crowing from gleefully.
Fact is, the business powers are still reiterating the same as I espoused… that they aren’t doing full time hiring or expanding because of the uncertainty of taxes and cost of doing business, that there is no demonstrated will in Congress (either party) to reign in the spending, and that the global fall makes them nervous about another global recession looming.
Oh horse manure. The TP convinced NO ONE that the debt increase is an emergency. The fact remains that the GOP, the Dem and this POTUS…. in the most strident terms of all… predicted fiscal Armaggedon if the debt ceiling was not raised. If you thought for even a second that it wasn’t going to be upped, then you are one of the fools I wrote about in my July 14th post…. the only one I had the patience to pen about this political charade.
I find it amazing that you think the TP – a grassroots movement with a tiny bit of representation in Congress only as of last Nov – has any such power. Yet you don’t decry the power of the unions, the banks, pharma on those elected leaders. The simple fact remains is that the TP got nothing… the debt ceiling should not have been raised, and it was stated by both parties upfront at the beginning that it would, indeed, be raised. The trade off was supposed to be a demonstration of some fiscal discipline in spending.
It’s now abundantly clear that ain’t going to happen with the current crop of elected ins sitting under the Capitol dome… from either party.
Just because the US may have a bit more time before our “Greece/Portugual/Spain” moment, does not mean that we are not on track for the same. IOW… it’s another punt down the playing field, and a Scarlett O’Hara classic moment of worrying about it tomorrow.
Pardon me, but what makes you think you hold a monopoly on cogent ideas about selective increases and spending cuts? Especially when it is you who demonstrates the extremist views of “cuts” (i.e. throwing granny off the cliff with Medicare, or stiffing grandpa on his SS check) and conflating “cuts” with “reforms”. They are two different approaches, and both include alternations in how services are delivered, how many it takes to administer the programs, and how the programs should be applied for future generations. You simply cannot perpetuate these ponzi schemes… that you continually insist are not ponzi schemes.
The tax cuts I’d like to see are for all individuals’ income taxes. The tax hikes I’d like to see is IRS reform of credits, etc. While “corporation” entities will find their overhead increase, the individuals will benefit for having more “kitchen table” funds at their disposal. And I think that everyone should pay some taxes…. Half the nation should not be carrying the load for the other half and their freebies. Something the guy who talks about “skin in the game” never likes to approach.
The cuts in the size of central government cannot be avoided as well. Your income or mine do not increase 7-8% automatically a year as a “baseline”. And in fact, this bloated behemoth is unbelievable inefficient. The amount of federal employees, agencies, subagencies, and sub sub agencies etal all is staggering. Not one of those employees generates a dime of original revenue. They only recycle the private sectors money.
This “baseline” crap of 7% annual increase of costs is pure bunk, and should be eliminated. Alas, I think you’ll find harmony between the rival parties in the beltway, standing shoulder to should to fight tooth and nail for their automatic spending raises every year. This is a serious problem. Most especially since this dwindling private sector is incapable of providing 7% more annually to sustain the DC machine… and that’s without any additional growth in federal agencies.
This is the reason that a capitalist based society ceases to function when public sector is out of balance with private sector. As far as I’m concerned, more than half of the federal employees should be thrown back into the private sector pool to generate new revenue and contribute instead of being a recycling drain.
And considering that I believe most of these agencies operate far outside the scope of the original central government’s finite Constitutional authority (i.e. they are not to be insurance companies, loan guarantors, tuition lenders, welfare handout agencies, pension plans, etc), I find their services quite expendable. If there is a genuine need for what they do, the private sector will support a private business or non profit entity doing the same. Capitalism and market demand continue to work… where there is a need and demand, an entrepreneur will fill that need. It should not be done on the taxpayer’s dime.
So what you view as “deep cuts”, I see as future growth. What will hurt at first – until these federal leeches turn around, and actually become productive and contributing taxpayers instead – will then begin to grow the private sector and original revenues. There will be pain before gain.
Larry, I think we’ve all figured out you’re all for regular “punting”… and that you see no sky falling. Unfortunately you are the icon of what is the problem in Washington.
What the market and global rating agencies were looking to see was not another can bouncing down the road. Thus the reason that we remain fragile, despite the Obama/GOP/Dem demand the debt ceiling be raised (against the wishes of the majority of Americans, according to polls). Since they knew the debt ceiling would be raised, what they were looking for was a glimpse of acknowledgement that spending is, indeed, the problem. That’s by passing your hysterical and extreme portrayal of it as an “emergency”.
Just because we aren’t Greece/Spain/Portugual/Ireland yet, doesn’t mean it’s not evident we’re on the same path. While others are forced into immediate austerity measures, the US has time to implement a reversal. However the markets are reflecting that while the Eurozone is in worse shape, the US not exactly handling their future economic growth with sage policy. We may still be considered the “safe haven” for now, but it’s because we are the least of bad choices. They can ride the US outgoing tide, and if the Eurozone’s austerity measures works, transfer their cash loyalty to them while the US handles it johnny-come-lately.
Yes, the economy is stalled. Here’s a heads up for you… it’s going to remain stalled, if not head into another recession. Personally, I’d call it a double dip. However according to strict definitions, we’ve been experiencing a “recovery”… laughable as it is. However a strong economy operates on four principles, as Gary Shillings points out:
Consumer spending is unlikely to increase because families, like corporations, are listening to voices like you who demand the turnips bleed more blood for the good of the country. So people are, finally, socking cash away.
Employment? Well, there’s no one predicting anything good on any foreseeable horizon. Two out of four cylinders pretty much with no rosy future.
Shilling and I are on the same page in housing as well…. eliminating the third cylinder. He forecasts another 20% drop before we even near the bottom… with luck, perhaps in 2013. I’m not that exact, or even that confident. I sure don’t see any end to the free fall as long as rates are low, and unemployment is high.
Right now about 20% of all US homeowners are a toxic asset – under water in value to mortgage. The moment the rates go up… and they have to in order to control inflation eventually… that 20% will go up to about 40% of homes underwater in LTV. This means families will have to sit tight.. unable to refinance out of a 4-5% mortgage to the newer rates. That will be reflected in a sharp decline in lending… and translate to lender employment layoffs as well. Any sale the toxic assets attempt is a new tide of short sales and/or foreclosures. The cycle will repeat because our 2008 housing crisis was founded on overpriced homes and toxic assets/out of balance LTVs.
Needless to say, there are a lot of cans bouncing down the road. And unfortunately, they are central factors in economic recovery.
As far as all the chicken little voices out there. You can first turn to this POTUS and Congress, dutifully hyped by the media, who jumps from one armaggedon and doom to another each and every day. There are ways to fix it.
Those like me, who are pessimistic, are so because we see all of Congress – both parties – fleeing from all the hard tasks and correct decisions it will take to fix it. And it isn’t by simply robbing the taxpayer of more cash. There is just no will for them to yield their spending money and refuse to grow the central government, let alone downsize.
Connie Mack’s “Penny Plan”, Larry Whether or not the debt is an immediate emergency, or the tsunami still half way across the ocean, it’s the only way I can see to approach the problem. Oddly enough, it’s the plan that very few… Congressional, POTUS or media… want to discuss. That should, in itself, be proof that it has the most merit.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
I will say to you the same thing I said to Greg, Larry. It’s about perspective. Greg says that it was the right, and particularly the conservative right, that was “holding the economy hostage” during this entire debt ceiling debate and process. He says that based on a belief that the TEA Party types were “threatening to shutdown government” if they didn’t get their way. The fact is that the other side, Obama, Reid, and the liberal/progressive Democrats were threatening the same thing if they didn’t get their tax increases, or if they felt the spending cuts were too high. Like I said, it’s about perspective.
The same thing goes for your post in #113.
-From the opposite perspective, it was Obama and Reid claiming that it was an emergency if we didn’t raise the debt ceiling, and raise it sufficient enough to take the government beyond the 2012 elections.
-From the opposite perspective, as I stated to Greg, it was Obama, Reid and the Democrats who were threatening vetoes and stoppage(happened several times btw) of bills from the house if none of the legislation had tax increases, or the spending “cuts” were too high.
-From the opposite perspective, the demagoguing about the debt ceiling fight was horrible, with Obama claiming kids would be cut off the roles of government healthcare programs and Reid claiming granny would be left do deal with life by herself, amongst many other untrue accusations.
Perspective, Larry. It is an important aspect of a discussion.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
I also found this statement, meaning the bold highlighted statement, to be quite disingenuous considering you advocate for the raising of taxes on people during this same period in the economy.
Let’s just get one small truth out of the way, so that there isn’t any misunderstanding. THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT THE ECONOMY. They are, in fact, just one small part of it. The other, larger part, is made up of private individuals and entities that you promote increased taxation upon.
Let’s assume that taxes ARE increased, Larry. That does, without a doubt, take away from the total amount of money being spent in the economy. Consider this, when more money is taken out of private individuals and businesses hands, and then taken in by government, there is less that private individuals and businesses spend in the economy. Now, while most of that money gets spent by the government, it reduces the amount that must be borrowed(and spent), meaning less overall money, between all entities, both private and government, gets spent within the economy.
So, I say it is a disingenuous statement, Larry, because on the one hand you argue against the reduction in the amount of money to be spent within the economy, if government spending is reduced, while promoting the reduction in the amount of money to be spent in the economy, by taking more money out of private individuals and businesses hands. Quite the contradiction there, Larry.
BTW, add Roubini to the economists who see that the chances for a recession next year are good, but that a QE3 is apt to be no more effective than QE2.
Embed code was disabled, so you’ll just have to view on YouTube direct. Saw it on Bloomberg this AM.
@rich wheeler: #129
I don’t know what that means, but I am guessing it ain’t a compliment.
@Larry
We were discussing the business side of the equation which has far more impact. Did I say those were the only reasons the economy is stalled? No, but they are pivotal, and you are deluded if you think that the Tea Party had anything to do with creating this situation. Aside from those reasons Mata has given you above, there are a plethora additional of cause and effect situations that have created a stalled economy.
(1) Many small business would like to expand beyond fifty employees, but will not because of Obamacare regulations will change the healthcare they have to provide. Some small business above 50 employees have cut back to fall under the regulation.
(2) Other businesses have been targeted by much more aggressive regulatory agencies, and constant messages by the Administration who states that they want to raise taxes on corporate profits. While at the same time the President’s appointed pro-union lackeys are are stirring up trouble between management and labor. Both are typical socialist class warfare tactics. and with easier pro-unionization atmosphere rules by a now biased regulatory agency, many companies don’t want to add more employees who will be hostile towards management. Add to that another classic socialist move in the unprecedented unilateral seizing of control of General Motors by the government, without any clear constitutional legality, and business suddenly have to fear something that they never expected in the United States. (Such aggressive seizing of companies are more typical to banana republics and communist nations.) Nor did it help the consideration of investing when stockholder’s were wiped out when the government forced GM into bankruptcy, then when GM issued new stock it gave a generous percentage of stock to the union workers, but none to the previous stockholders. Businessmen and would be corporate investors can not consider a government which takes such actions, to be friendly to business, and they have little choice but to stand pat until a more reasonable government is put in power. That is why most business are spending their money, not on making jobs, or expanding, but on modernizing their equipment and systems so that they will be leaner and more efficient once the market situation turns around.
(3) The Stock Market has never really stabilized since the crash following 9/11. Many people lost their retirement nest eggs, and have been hesitant about putting their money in the market again, especially with the volatility of the market every time there is a “crisis”. So, people began instead to invest in real estate which has always been considered a more conservative investment. We all know what happened to the housing market. The result was more loss of retirement nest eggs, while the nefarious banks that bought and sold these loans as triple-A investments, were bailed of their losses, the small investors lost. Having been hit twice, those few who still would like to invest but they don’t want to gamble any more with their retirements. With a government that so can’t get it’s own spending under control that it has began printing money, bond and T-Bills are not considered a wise investment, because if the government goes bankrupt, the public doesn’t trust that the bonds and bills will be any more secure. So those few who can afford to save are mostly sitting on their money.
(4) Obamas “energy agenda” has been pivotal in increasing the costs of fuel, electricity, which is resulting in creation inflation while wages and income remain stagnant. That means it hurts the poor and middle-class who are struggling to meet their immediate existence needs and their financial obligations. For them their is little “hope”fulness from these heartless “change”s.
(6) Yet in Washington, the President and Congressional Democrats (and Progressive Republicans) want to continue to 3expand the size and scope of government and deficit spend beyond our ability to pay. Ignoring warnings given at the start of the “Debt Crisis” by the credit agencies, that unless the government stops deficit spending and reduces it’s debt by $4-trillion, that they will have no choice but downgrade the US credit rating. If that happens, interest rates will have to go up, and this will be detrimental to any recovery.
The net result is that the economy will continue to be “stalled” until our leaders in Washington get their heads out of their orifices. With the current crop, (with the exception of the Tea Party elected ones, who can see the both the forest and the trees and actually “get it”,) it will most likely require a full flushing of all the other incompetent political critters including the socialist-in-chief.
SMORGASBORD, I”m included so it might not be,
do you know any OLIVER?
OLIVER STONE ? NO, DUNNO ANY
@Ditto:
Don’t forget what this administration has done to the domestic oil industry in the Gulf.
First they imposed the drilling moratorium. Then, they defied a federal judge and were ultimately found in contempt of court as a result.
After finally, and grudgingly, complying with the judge’s order, they instituted a drastic slow down in permitting which has resulted in multiple rigs pulling up anchor and going elsewhere.
A recent study has shown that a reversal of these actions in the Gulf would result in 430,000 new jobs and a jolt of energy into a struggling GDP.
IT look so much like it is done deliberative to ruin the economy ,and rushing to
paralyse the market and chase the companies away,
and so to take full control all for them self as proclaiming him to be a dictator for life,
and by executive order nullify the next election
before the 2012 election,
Ms.Bees (aka Oliver) #138 Absolutely your best to date.
rich wheeler,
I’m learning from y’all,
THERE is also OLIVER NORTH, which I respect a lot,. which one is your OLIVER?
Larry, you owe both a mea culpa and an apology to your fellow citizens who ID themselves as “tea party”.
I have tried to tell you over and over that our credit rating and int’l perspective has everything to do with even a modicum attempt to reign in spending. You have ignored that, and blamed the Tea Party… a grassroots movement with barely a blip of representation in the Congress as of last year.
Additionally, I have repeatedly told you that the failure to address the spending… most of which entails tackling the entitlement ponzi schemes… yes, I said ponzi schemes and I will continue to describe them accurately as ponzi schemes… is the reason this nation is going down the fiscal toilet.
BREAKING NEWS: S&P’s has officially spoken out, downgrading the US credit rating.
Was it because of the politicos whining? As a byproduct yes. What was it really for? Because they could see there was no will to reduce spending and address the largest drain on the US budget… entitlements.
Now… lest ye think this is a GOP rah rah cheer… it’s not. “Raising taxes” can be included in IRS reform, however both parties… most especially the Dems… refuse to come to reform (not cuts… REFORM) on entitlements. GOP royally PO’d me when they took those off the table, and I did a rant/op-ed when the GOP decided to abandon even tackling the subject after Ryan’s attempt.
Who have been the only voices for both reforming the entitlements and promoting a notable effort in reining in spending?
The Tea Party. The only one’s who had it right in the base concept, and the ones who lost everything in this bogus “compromise”… right along with every other US taxpayer of all political stripes.
As I said, both the GOP and Dems were playing us all for fools. Of course they’d raise the debt ceiling…. they said they would. However without adequate demonstration of attacking the debt drainers… entitlements.. and meaningful spending cuts, the downgrading was inevitable.
I say it again… you should humbly apologize to every fiscally conservative Tea Party believer who stuck to their guns, and retract all your vicious and erroneous political statement about them being to blame. They were right. Your precious POTUS and idiot party members, right along with the GOP, were clueless.
And we all play the price.
Signed:
to you, the “ultimate fool”, from me, the “observant, unwilling and protesting” fool.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim:
No, Larry, the TEA Party rose into being because of that fear. Consumer confidence is low due to things like Obamacare and it’s myriad of “hidden” and blatant taxes. One of the first acts Obama did was to raise the taxes on cigarettes by nearly a dollar a pack(fine if one doesn’t smoke, a difficulty if one does). His actions in regards to the Gulf Oil Spill, which ended essentially in a severe shortage of drilling operations not only in the gulf, but all around the country, is seen and felt by people to be the reason for such high fuel prices(the true cause can be argued as that, or something else, but it doesn’t matter). Along with the high fuel prices goes food prices, and the prices of everything that requires some sort of transportation from raw material to on the shelf at a store(so, pretty much everything).
You have confused the cause with the effect, Larry.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim: You said – in response to Ditto:
Do you really not believe that crushing regulations have anything to do with the poor economy??
Consider this:
@MataHarley: You said to Larry:
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Larry, not to talk about you as if you weren’t in the room, but Mata, you hit the nail on the head. When and if Larry ever gets his head out of the sand, he will realize that our dear old Uncle Sam is on an unsustainable course with the present “leaders” in DC at wheel.
@ilovebeeswarzone: #36
You and I live in the world of reality. We don’t want to know most of the people in the other world.
@ilovebeeswarzone: #138
Where could you have gotten an idea like that?
SMORGASBORD, HI,
THAT IDEAS COME FROM OBSERVING THE WARNING AND TO MATCH IT WITH THE OBSERVING THE ACTIONS from the other side of the warning, which give me the answer to my own questions
I pose to my brain, and I process it with my logical answer,
and after deliberating between logic and emotion,
the heaviest one, tell me the answer to write my comment ,waiting for being challenge as
a possible reality or not, by smarter than me which is
all my friends here
just saying
bye
@ilovebeeswarzone: #147
I call myself a “neutralist” because I want a lot of information before I decide anything.
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Bees, you want to stop shouting all the time? It’s quite annoying and means I rarely read your posts.
PurpleDragon, okay, I got your message,
funny because I don’t have a big mouth vocaly, and I type with emotion and forget the key,
but I will try to do it, promised
@Aye (137)
I haven’t forgotten all that, I just include it in the terrible energy policies of this administration. More facts that Larry refuses to consider in his defense of the Democrat and Obama agendas.