Thread via Will Schryver
Russia Has Been Winning This War All Along — And Winning it Big
I’ve written extensively on this question since it became apparent the Russians had eviscerated the original AFU by late spring 2022.
One of my earliest articles explains in detail:
From the moment in early April when Russian forces on the perimeter of Kiev began to withdraw to new positions in eastern Ukraine, western war propagandists have been trumpeting what they characterized as Russia’s “humiliating defeat”. As one who recognized as early as February 28th that the Russian army was executing a strategic feint in and around the Ukrainian capital, I could only shake my head and laugh at the cluelessness of most of the so-called “experts” who have attempted to sell this interpretation of events to hopelessly ignorant western audiences.
I am reminded of how, during the US Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was ceaselessly frustrated with his early cadre of generals.
Much as the vast majority of current western military “experts” have been fixated on conquering “territory” as a measure of progress, or the lack thereof, Lincoln’s early generals were illogically focused on the objective of “taking Richmond” – the capital of the Confederacy. This obsession dominated the strategic focus of the Union high command for most of the war.
Lincoln, on the other hand – notwithstanding there is no evidence he ever read von Clausewitz – intuitively and correctly understood that it was not a city, nor any piece of territory, per se, that was the objective upon which his West Point-trained generals should focus.
Rather, he repeatedly (and vainly) urged his generals to come to understand it was the destruction of the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia, commanded by General Robert E. Lee, that constituted the only valid objective of their actions.
A few weeks after I published that seminal blog post, the legendary USMC general, Paul K. Van Riper (with a few others) published in the Marine Corps Gazette a highly controversial analysis of the war which affirmed most of what I had written in July.
In 2002, Van Riper was the “Red Team” commander of the biggest military exercise in Pentagon history, code-named “Millennium Challenge”, which war-gamed a conflict with Iran in the Persian Gulf. The “Blue Team” force was destroyed in a matter of hours.
In late 2022, war historian Dr. Michael Vlahos (@Michalis_Vlahos) interviewed Col. Douglas Macgregor in relation to the destruction of AFU Version 2, which NATO had assembled to replace Ukraine’s original army.
This is *ESSENTIAL* viewing.
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Those who have closely followed me will recognize in Macgregor’s analysis numerous confirmations of my own observations dating back to the beginning – particularly my constant mantra that:
THE OBJECT OF WAR IS *NOT* TO SEIZE/HOLD TERRITORY, BUT TO DESTROY THE ENEMY ARMY.
Destroying the enemy army is PRECISELY what the Russians have done in this war – not once, but twice!
Now we are about to find out how well the NATO-constructed AFU Version 3 will fare against a Russian military that is – by far – at its peak of strength.
To outfit AFU v.3, the US/NATO has literally drained all their surplus stocks of equipment and ammunition, and are now depleting their active inventories. Germany and the Baltics are quite literally “demilitarized”; they have virtually no war-making capacity remaining.
And while Russia has ramped up its military / industrial capacity to Cold War levels, the US and NATO countries have no such “surge capacity”. Russia expends 2x – 4x more artillery rounds EVERY SINGLE DAY than the US can produce in a month!
As I originally wrote in my July 10, 2022 article Wunderwaffe Du Jour:
“The US military is not built nor equipped for protracted high-intensity conflict. Nor can it supply a depleted proxy army with the means to prosecute a protracted high-intensity conflict.”
The incontrovertible reality is that the US and its NATO allies are presently incapable of supplying the massive material demands of modern industrial warfare, as Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) Alex Vershinin articulated so well in this essential June 2022 analysis: The Return of Industrial Warfare.
And yet the public discussion of potential war always includes convinced voices proclaiming that, just like in the Second World War, US industry could very rapidly ramp up to produce armaments of surpassing quality, and in overwhelming quantities.
This titillates the biases of American exceptionalists in general, and is a particularly seductive fantasy of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult drones propagandizing for filthy lucre at the countless armaments-industry-funded “think tanks” in Washington and London.
But the notion that the rapidly declining empire can resurrect the Arsenal of Democracy band for one final farewell tour is a singularly delusional vanity.
You see, for all its massive plunder of the public purse, the US armaments industry is effectively a modestly scaled high-end boutique.
And there is simply no way this domestic US industry can expeditiously expand its production. It would literally take years – probably a full decade – for the US to expand its military production to a seriously potent industrial scale.
It is also essential to understand that Russia has fought this entire war with one hand tied behind its back. Its strategy has long been predicated on the understanding that it may very well have to face direct NATO intervention in the conflict.
Once it became clear the Russians had no intention to launch a winter offensive, I’ve steadily come to believe they concluded no later than summer 2022 that they must prioritize preparations to face a possible direct NATO intervention in this war.
I am increasingly persuaded the introduction of the American “wunderwaffen” (M-777 and HIMARS) has overridingly influenced Russian prosecution of this war — not on account of these particular systems’ battlefield efficacy, but by what they symbolized:
The US having “raised the stakes” in this fashion, the war was instantly transformed into an escalatory duel.
And that realization has, in my estimation, strongly influenced everything we have seen the Russians do since then.
It must also be understood that the US/NATO and its Ukrainian proxies have, since the beginning, been engaged in a disinformation war that has been predicated on the axiom that “If you can’t win a real war, win an imaginary one.”
This is, BY FAR, the most propagandized war in human history. Beginning even before the war commenced, the western intel apparatus has flooded the media with constant disinformation. Virtually everything the majority of the western public believes about this war is a lie.
The plain and demonstrable truth is that Russia has been winning this war all along – and winning it *decisively* while yet utilizing an extraordinary economy of force and inflicting the most disproportionate casualty ratio of any major war in modern times.
Russia has engaged in a military strategy that is intended to reduce the fighting capacity manpower of ukraine to a level where they(ukraine) will be unable to fight. Ukraine will be forced to accept peace terms they should have accepted early on but were stymied by both the UK and the US.
What seems to be obviously absent from this conflict are the demands for diplomacy to end the innocent killing of civilians and destruction of infrastructure. The objectives of the west seem to be inconsiderate of the well being of the Ukraine. The NATO/US coalition has as its intention to cause regime change in Russia in furtherance of the globalists desire to have a global hegemony. Russia and Putin have made it clear they oppose the global cabal and its intention to conquer Russia, ergo the continued conflict.
zelensky made that clear in early March that the time may come when it is necessary for America’s sons and daughters to die fighing in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1654102785414053890?t=f_ourEVSgZKi1qiD0lA3sg&s=19
https://twitter.com/tretter50001/status/1654087664797200386?t=9WoHYM2KD_xmJLl6dyz6gw&s=19
This idiot is so screwed…
No the GOP will use it for fund raising,while congress does nothing to impeach, nothing, Get rid of “Sure we can send all our taxpayer dollars to Ukraine” Mc Carthy then maybe.
Yeah, I know. But we the People don’t follow this impostor.
He was installed, and will never be a legal president.
That’s a good start.
“I’m sure if Donald Trump was president today, there would be no war in Ukraine, or in Europe. Mr. President, come back, make America great again and bring peace back to Europe.” – Viktor Orban Prime Minister .
Based.
Winning without Territory: Russia’s Focus on Destroying the Enemy Army (Putin’s propagandists, re-branding failure)
The Trump/pro-Putin connection is obvious to everyone who isn’t afflicted with it.
There’s no connection.
Never was.
Russia is winning and has been from the start.
The comedian president is in exile in Finland.
The stupid bastard expected to win in a week. 435 days later he’s facing a Ukrainian counteroffensive and about to piss his pants.
Nah. The “if you don’t win a war in a fews days, you lost…even if you win” is the f*cking stupidist thing I’ve ever heard.
You’re an idiot.
Russia is winning, and has been from the start.
Putin was going to subdue Ukraine in just a few days. That was 435 days and 200,000 dead Russians ago.
Citation?
Again,
“if you don’t win a war in a fews days, you lost…even if you win” is the f*cking stupidist thing I’ve ever heard.
Russia is winning.
Russian casualties number closer to 50,000, while Ukraine dead are upwards of 300,000.
You’re losing your war, son.
Own it.
Talk about stupid bastards:
Russia says U.S. was behind Kremlin drone attack, drawing quick denial – It should be drawing uncontrollable laughter.
If the drone in the video wasn’t Russian, Russian air defenses are an even bigger joke.
Seriously we just saw a Balloon from China fly over the US, only reported after sited by a citizen.
A drifting balloon 11 miles up is a bit less noticeable than a low-speed drone buzzing along at treetop level. If Russian air cover is that incompetent, Ukraine should launch them in swarms. They could buy them in bulk on Amazon.
Reminder:
The U.S. General who is the Supreme Leader in Europe said Russian forces have not been significantly impacted by this war.
They are winning.
Ukraine has already lost. The only question we have is which dictator will be removed first, Putin or Biden?
My money is in biden.
Putin is saving Russia from the globalists and we need to get rid of biden to save America.
Putin is a dead man walking. He’s a liability to everybody. My money is on a false flag assassination that Kremlin insiders will blame on the US and Ukraine.
We all die sooner or later but Bidens number may be closer than Putin.
It’s probably going to be more obvious than even Epstein…
Are you threatening the life of a world leader?
I don’t think that’s legal, greg.
I’d be careful putting that on the internet.
I just told you that Kremlin insiders are likely to kill him. There are 200,000 reasons why they would, and more are coming. Putin is a threat to RUSSIA. His war has become a disaster that could turn catastrophic.
Uh….maybe. Probably not.
Actually no.
Why are you still pushing this? It’s stupid.
Greg you know those robots that were supposed to replace working men?
biden will not be the democrat nominee for 2024. The behind the scenes puppet masters are plotting his demise.
More noise from Gateway Putin. They follow the Russian “Fire Hose of Falsehood” propaganda model.
And more noise from you.
Dismissed.
Signal not noise.
You do not have the intelligence to refute any story on this news site. All you have is worn out platitudes and boilerplates.
Gateway Putin is not a “news site”. It’s an online propaganda tabloid that floods its victims’ brains with mind-numbing b.s.
More winning and bad news for you.
This is news.
It’s a national story.
Biden must be removed from office, today. He’s never legally had the right to pollute the Resolute Desk.
bidens legal problems are just starting. It won’t be long now, time will tell.
They probably had to clean off the magic marker stains, cheeseburger grease, and orange face powder before Biden moved in…
How many more young Russians must die to prop up a Russian war criminal? Russia can’t sustain their offensive. Ukraine is going to drive them out. The Russians should leave and save their own lives. Putin isn’t worth dying for. Putin isn’t worth killing for.
Speaking of biden not being the democrat nominee, who will the left put up to go against President Trump?
Putin’s shelling and missile attacks on civilian targets have killed over 500 Ukrainian children.
Far less than those Ukrainians propping up a failed globalist takeover.
He could have left off “relative,” and still been right.
Here you go, genius.
Russia is at war with AMERICA, not Ukraine.
“Attempts to disown this (attack on the Kremlin), both in Kiev and in Washington, are, of course, absolutely ridiculous. We know very well that decisions about such actions, about such terrorist attacks, are made not in Kiev but in Washington,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
We would have flown in a smart bomb with a B-21, not a hobby drone with a firework charge. We would have bombed Putin’s after-hours location, not the Kremlin flagpole.
You don’t know what we would have done, civvy.
Here. This made me think of you and stupid you are:
We know what the White house had to go through after Barry and the first gentleman moved out, pest control, fact pal. It wasnt fit for the first lady and Barron for months. No stories of pests and theft, the mansion left in ruins after Trump had it restored and cleaned.
More like install the extra toilet in the Oval office.
Always Party before country, print money like madmen, raise the debt ceiling, cause inflation, raise interest rates, crash banks. This is the Democrat plan a depression like no other. Then World war.
Read a damn history book.
Well Comrade Greggie, it seems you not only hate Putin, you hate ALL things American. So here is your challenge;
tell us why you worry more about Ukraine’s borders, and the deaths of its citizens more than you do our borders and the deaths of our citizens via Chinese/Mexican Fentanyl.
Come on, Comrade Scumbag, give us your answer. But I doubt you have the courage to not only answer, but be honest in your answer.
You remain a major idiot.
You notice how he doesn’t comment on the bribery story… Or any other story about the Biden family corruption anymore.
Just rah rah Nazi 24/7
Curt, you also notice how he ragged on Trump over Covid but NEVER on China? Or how for the four years Trump was in office ragged on the Trump children? But NEVER on Hunter Biden who is an absolute slug.
Comrade Greggie loves him some crooked Zalenskyy and the Ukrainian Nazis.
greg is a coward. I pummel him with all things biden and he never comments in defense of biden
My world doesn’t revolve around President Biden.
Have you changed professions, Comrade Greggie? It seems you now want to be a comedian.
Yet it as reported by a citizen to a local paper.
You aint to bright.
Russian lines in Ukraine are about to be overrun.
There was a lot of jabber in the news over the past few weeks about critical ammunition shortages, wasn’t there? I’m guessing that was intended for Russian consumption.
As the counteroffensive approaches, there are no indications of shortages. Ukrainian forces have pushed Russians back from positions in the occupied territories the invaders have held for nine years.
Russian claims about an assassination attempt with a hobby shop drone are ludicrous. Watch for rising Kremlin hysteria as the counteroffensive begins.
The jabber was from you about critical ammunition shortages to Wagner.
Remember, loser?
Ukrainians aren’t pushing back the Russians…at all.
Watch out for increasingly unhinged blather from dumb trolls like greg in the future.
They are losing.
We all see it, and know it.
04/06/23 – Novaya-Europe
05/04/23 – All civilians to be evacuated from Avdiivka soon
Citation of the quote from Putin saying they would win in two days. Your insane cheerleading for the Nazi losers who WILL lose this fight does not answer my citation request
https://twitter.com/tretter50001/status/1654213957907894273?t=lWJ_sIPTRYHBHkC-aijbzg&s=19
Ukraine shot down its drone after control was lost. No doubt Musk understands the response.
Says who?
Ukraine doesn’t even have an army any more.
It’s all Nato troops.
Ukraine isn’t yet a NATO member, but they’ve earned membership.
Putin really screwed the pooch. His lunacy has enlarged and unified NATO.