By Austin Alonzo
Republicans are closing the gap on voter registrations in key swing states. Political observers say it could be a sign the party will perform well in November.
The gap between registered voters in the Democratic Party and Republican Party shrank significantly in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, according to voter registration statistics collected in April.
Taking the combined voter totals in the three states, Republicans have eroded the Democratic registration advantage by more than 54 percent between 2019 and 2024.
In Arizona, a fourth critical state, Republicans extended their lead in registered voters by more than 71 percent during the same period.
The four states are among the most prized possessions in presidential politics. Collectively, they represent 52 electoral votes. In 2020, Joe Biden carried all except North Carolina. In 2016, Donald Trump took everything but Nevada.
The registration trends don’t necessarily mean Republicans will sweep the states, but they’re a sign that the GOP will be able to more easily target and turn out its voters in those states than it did in 2020.
“On balance, you’d certainly rather have more registrations in your direction than the other direction,” Daniel Hopkins, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science and Economics, told The Epoch Times.
Pennsylvania
The largest numerical shift occurred in the Keystone State where the Democrat lead has shrunk by some 400,000 votes since May 2019.
In May 2019, more than 4 million were registered as Democrats, and about 3.2 million were registered Republicans, according to voter registration data collected by the Pennsylvania Department of State.
By the end of April, almost 3.9 million Pennsylvanians were registered as Democrats, while nearly 3.5 million were registered as Republicans.
During the same period, the total number of registered voters increased to more than 8.7 million from nearly 8.5 million. The electorate registered with the Libertarian Party or “other parties,” as the state identifies them, remained relatively stable at 1.2 million during the same period.
Along with the rematch between President Biden and former President Trump, Pennsylvania voters will consider a Senate race crucial to the balance of power in Washington. Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) will square off against Republican businessman Dave McCormick.
Mr. Hopkins said the seismic change in voter registration could be linked to a growing number of what he called “ancestral Democrats” in rural Pennsylvania either falling off the rolls or registering with another party. These moderate voters are just as likely to vote Democratic as Republican, he predicts.
Nevertheless, Mr. Hopkins said the statistics indicate the state’s voters are moving toward the right and there is more parity in the electorate than in previous cycles. This aligns with the Republican Party’s growing appeal with white, high-school-educated voters, he said.
Pennsylvania GOP chairman Lawrence Tabas said erasing the voter registration deficit is a “top priority” in the state.
Mr. Tabas said volunteers are knocking on doors and making phone calls in efforts to register more Republican voters.
“So far this year, all 67 counties have registered more Republican voters than any other party,” Mr. Tabas said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.
“These numbers, coupled with our mail-in ballot increases, are sure to help set up Republican victories in all regions of the Commonwealth this November.”
Representatives of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party didn’t respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.
North Carolina
The biggest percentage change occurred in the Tarheel State and the most significant statistic is that unaffiliated voters now exceed those of either major party.
