The Islamic Republic of Iran, long a thorn in America’s side, is encountering a high degree of what historians will probably refer to as ‘bad luck.’ As Iran’s latest round of national protests play out, with widespread reports that the regime has brutally cracked down on protestors —with some public executions reportedly scheduled to begin tomorrow— President Trump dialed up his tariff dashboard to ‘11.’ The Washington Post reported the story, headlined, “Trump announces 25 percent tariff on countries that trade with Iran.” He is getting pretty handy with that thing.
By all accounts, Iran’s economy is on the ropes. The country is experiencing something that may not technically be hyperinflation, but is the next closest thing. The protests this time are over what most commentators agree is profound economic mismanagement. Iranian officials have shut off the entire country’s Internet access, even deploying military-grade electronic jammers to block Starlink signals. Human rights groups claim that hundreds of protestors have been killed by police (some reports claim the figure is in the thousands).
For Iran’s part, officials have produced videos showing some of the slain and arrested protestors provoked the regime with violent attacks on police, and showing evidence of large, pro-regime counter-protests by supportive citizens who know what’s good for them. All the figures and videos and statistics from both sides of the conflict are hotly debated.
My guess is that there’s as much propaganda about Iran on social media as reliable information.
Yesterday, Iran announced it was “open” to further talks with the US —appearing to blame America for the unrest— but pre-emptively rejected any “maximalist demands,” and offered no concessions. This was widely seen as a stalling tactic. As pressure mounted, with reporters repeatedly asking the President and other US officials whether military intervention was imminent, yesterday, President Trump posted this announcement:
Rather than tariff Iran directly —which would probably be useless, since Iran already lies under lasagna-like layers of sanctions— Trump announced “effective immediately” tariffs of 25% on “any country doing business with” Iran. Nobody seems to know which countries will be affected, what “doing business with” means, or any other details. We await clarification of the Presidential post. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Iran’s main trading partners are China, India, Turkey, UAE, and Iraq. Presumably, these countries lie in the tariff dashboard’s economic crosshairs. But either way, it isn’t good news for Iran. Once again, we see regime isolation: the truly remarkable lack of any international support for the Iranian regime. You might think the Europeans or the United Nations would take advantage of this sterling opportunity to resist Trump a little, but you’d be wrong.
🚀 This morning, the BBC reported that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “we are now witnessing the final days and weeks” of the Iranian regime, and that other European countries are summoning Iran’s ambassadors over the increasing violence against protestors. “When a regime can only maintain power through violence, then it is effectively at its end. The population is now rising up against this regime,” Merz added.
French President Emmanuel Macron did the same, complaining about Iran’s crackdown on protestors, not about America’s potential role:
The United Nations has also officially condemned Iran. Not the US.
Even Iran’s friends are being remarkably quiet. Russia —Iran’s key geopolitical ally— hasn’t issued any public position statement, confining its remarks to general condemnations of “foreign interference” with Iran, without mentioning the United States directly. China did the same, offering lukewarm expressions of concern about foreign interference, but again without criticizing the U.S. in any cognizable way.
An impenetrable fog of war blankets the conflict. It is impossible to know what is truly going on. Whatever it is, though, it is happening at breakneck speed. Take a moment and try to imagine how Iranian officials must be feeling. It probably feels like they’re caught on a malfunctioning Tilt-a-whirl at a traveling fair in a mall parking lot. They’re probably wondering whether they are going to live through the ordeal, and if so, how long their wife will remind them that she told them the fair looked sketchy.
🚀 At home and around the world, America’s adversaries are feeling the fierce rush of January’s events. It’s all happening so fast that the globalist swamp can’t decide what to do. Sun Tzu said, “Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots.”
The military master encouraged surprise attacks, all at once, to force the enemy to pick his battles. “The spot where we intend to fight must not be made known … Appear at points which the enemy must hasten to defend; march swiftly to places where you are not expected. If the enemy sends reinforcements everywhere, he will everywhere be weak.”
Nobody knows what President Trump plans to do about Iran next. The Iranians are left guessing. But whatever the President does, it will probably happen fast. The hapless Iranians never saw the tariff move coming; but in hindsight, it plainly reminds us of Sun Tzu’s admonition to weaken your enemy’s alliances. It is remarkably similar to how the U.S. Navy cut off Venezuela— except instead of using a carrier convoy, using tariffs.
I don’t need to remind you that major geopolitical history is being made this month. The world is being re-engineered in real time. I’ll do my utmost to keep you not only informed about what happens, but hopefully aware of what it all means.
