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Why Obama Will Win the Election – And One Reason to Believe he Won’t [Reader Post]

This is another one of those topics I’ve had kicking around for a while and since it will become irrelevant in 48 hours now seemed as good a time as any to wrap things up. This will be one of my posts that will give everyone something to hate. Most of this post is things I’ve been saying since 2009 – the subject has angered my conservative friends for obvious reasons, while the reasons behind my conclusions don’t go over well with my leftist friends. Since early in his presidency I have asserted that President Obama would get re-elected in 2012 no matter who he ran against, and regardless of how badly he does the job of president.

First off, my belief that Obama would win based on two basic points about Obama himself – his greatest passion and his greatest skill set. What is the one thing that Obama loves deeply and more passionately than anything else in this world? Barack Obama, of course. Look back to the early days of his presidency and how Obama reacted to criticism. He lashed out at Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh for criticizing his policies. Contrast that with how Obama reacted to Daniel Ortega’s angry rant against the US back in 2009, with a chuckle of “I’m grateful that President Ortega did not blame me for things that happened when I was three months old.” Or take when Hugo Chavez decided to embarrass an amateur by publicly presenting Obama with a “gift” of a book (written in Spanish, a language the president doesn’t know) that was highly critical of the United States. Obama just shrugged this insult off by saying, “You know, I thought it was one of Chavez’s books,” Obama answered. “I was going to give him one of mine.” So why would the president fire back at critics while ignoring the insults against his country on an international stage? It’s simple, Ortega and Chavez only insulted America, something that the president could care less about or whose history he has no appreciation for, at least not until the president is done

“…fundamentally transforming the United States of America.” But critics of Obama and his policies, well that hit something that the president truly cares about – Barack Obama. And of course he shot back when someone dared criticize the greatest love of his life. Which takes me to the second part of my theory on Obama…

What is the president’s single most, greatest skill? He is skilled at speaking passionately and getting crowds excited about the one subject that Obama wants them to love as much as he does – Barack Obama. Sadly, his spell is still working too well over our country’s biggest Super Pac over influencing public opinion, the mainstream media. No matter how badly our economy might be performing the left will still have no shortage of excuses or random data points that will allow them to convince themselves that the president is doing a good job. No blunder that the president makes, no matter how egregious, can’t be swept under the rug or given excuses to justify. Or even more disturbing, the press will rush to defend the president they worked so hard to elect by treating criticism of the president that journalists used to do as “politicizing” or “gaffes”. While he may not know how to govern, the president is truly a campaigning machine, which is convenient since lie a single-minded Terminator it’s all he seems to have done since entering office.


You still don’t get it, do you? That’s what he does! That’s ALL he does!

And it’s worked quite well, despite a dismal economy and a foreign policy that has left us at a point where our friends don’t trust us and the bad guys don’t respect us. A president who promised to bring this country together has run a relentless campaign of resentment and division as the cornerstone of his re-election campaign. This is the natural progression of the empty promises of Hope and Change naturally evolving into anger and resentment. In fact, there is nothing that the president can do that the left isn’t ready to try to explain away:

After the last few years of arguing with various lefties about Obama I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that the president can do that could possibly lead them to criticize, much less cease to support him. They have too much emotionally invested in our president to be able to apply any objective measures of his performance. In fact, I would argue that there is no act so egregious that could push the left to fail to turn to his defense. I truly believe that if, at a campaign stop today, Obama were to defecate on the Constitution and clean his posterior with the American flag the left’s defense would go something like this:

*Profanity warning – there is some rough language in the next paragraph (in italics). As I mentioned the one other time I did this in a political post, I avoid profanity in my blog since it focuses attention on the cuss words rather than my point, but sometimes it’s the best way to make your point. Like now. Feel free to skip ahead one paragraph if said language offends.

This is the part where conservatives can only shake their heads in disbelief when you want to get in their faces and scream, “The only reason we are talking about this is because Obama just took a shit on the Constitution and wiped his ass with the American flag!!! What the Hell is wrong with you that you can’t see this?!?” Never mind. Bad economy? Burning embassy? Lies about a promise to close Guantanamo? Whatever – hope and change, hope and change.

So we have Obama starting out with a blindly loyal, unconditional base of nearly half of the country. What could stop Obama from getting re-elected? I had been arguing for a while that only two things could have accomplished this, regardless of opponent: Either two 9-11 scale attacks on the US or a terrorist attack with the magnitude to leave a city in the US uninhabitable. If there was one 9-11 in the US the country would rally around Obama as it did with Bush – a second would kill even the press’ ability to protect Obama. An attack that destroys a city would have the same effect – even the press couldn’t find away to deflect blame from the president. Hopefully nobody reading this thinks that what I just wrote would be a good idea – if you need me to explain why there’s nothing I say could make you see sense anyway.

Where does all of this leave us? I see Obama having spent the last four years of campaigning with a heavier dose at the end convincing enough people to elect him. Yes, I’ve watched both campaigns, Obama’s missteps, most of the debates, and I’ve seen the polls. I just can’t get past the fact that campaigning and winning elections (or having them handed to him) is the one things that the president does well and I believe he will do it again on November 6th.

And yet…

I can’t ignore the very disciplined, methodical campaign that Romney has run since the primaries. While Obama threw everything he had at Romney over the summer Mitt resisted the natural instinct to spend heavily to counter the president’s paid propaganda on commercials and unpaid propaganda in the media. The blogosphere and Twitterverse have been relentless in attacking Obama’s many missteps, another very un-Obama like tendency while campaigning. That’s still not enough to convince me that Romney has a chance of winning, so what did?

During the 2008 democratic primaries Jeff Greenfield over at Salon.com wrote an entertaining piece called “Bugs Bunny vs. Daffy Duck – Why voters always choose the wascally wabbit for president.” Obviously this wasn’t the most scientific article, but it made enough of an impression that I still remember it today. The article compared the candidates in the last few presidential elections and the one who kept his cool like Bugs Bunny would end up winning, while the one who lost his composure and acted a little bit goofy like Daffy Duck wound up on the losing end. This was his basis for predicting Obama would win the primary race against Clinton – click on the article, as it’s well worth five minutes of your time. When did I see the parallel today?

Over the summer as Obama and the press relentlessly assaulted Romney he kept his cool. Reporters showing their lack of professionalism by screaming at him outside the Tomb of the Unknowns in Poland? Romney ignored them. And endless chorus of libelous accusations over Romney’s tax returns as if the American people are more concerned with how a private citizen spends his own money versus how the president is spending theirs? Romney just munched on his carrot. The clincher for me though, came in the final debate. Obama had already looked somewhat “Daffy” over the summer, with idiotic campaign themes like “The Life of Julia” or “Lady Parts”. But in the third debate, the contrast couldn’t be more clear. After the pounding he took in the first debate knew he had to come out swinging and swinging hard. He was furious in his attacks, while Romney remained calm and even congenial toward the president. While Obama was generally scored as the winner based on points and punches landed, that didn’t seem to be Romney’s objective for this debate. When people stood back and looked at how the non-talking head set viewed the debate most people saw Romney as the calm, collected, and more importantly, more presidential compared to an angry and petulant Obama. You could almost see the president pulling the duck bill that had spun to the back of his head from an exploding cigar, setting it straight on the front of his face and hissing at Romney “Youuurrrr’e DesPICable!”

I still haven’t decided yet if I’m going to go on a media blackout on presidential election night as I did for the last two elections or not. I still believe I’ll wake up on Wednesday morning with Obama as president for the many reasons I gave, but where there are Bugs and Daffy, there is hope.

Of course, this could have all been avoided and the GOP could be gearing up for a landslide had it had the sense to nominate the one man worthy of getting the all important endorsement of Brother Bob’s Blog. Unfortunately, the US Constitution prohibits citizens born in the land of Westeros from becoming president. I am of course, referring to none other than the great Stannis Baratheon!

Cross Posted from Brother Bob’s Blog

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