Iran has been much in the news lately, with its atomic bomb, er, energy program, its nuclear scientist short lifespan, its “Close the Strait of Hormuz” exercise, its telling the US that an aircraft carrier had better not come back into the Persian Gulf, and its test firing of a home built missile. So I thought a look at its internal politics may prove interesting.
The power struggle in Iran between the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, could lead to Ahmadinejad’s resignation. It was predictable that when Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi resigned (or was dismissed) from Ahmadinejad’s cabinet in April, 2011, it would be costly for Ahmadinejad. The extent of the damage for Ahmadinejad’s defiance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now becoming clear. According to the Tehran Etedaal newspaper, several people close to Ahmadinejad and his chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, have been arrested by security services. Moslehi defied Ahmadinejad by being more loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Got that? It has always been difficult to be a player in Iranian politics/religion.
The attack on the British embassy in Tehran in November, 2011, by Iranian “youths” is another example of this situation. Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament, condemned Great Britain and said that the action of Iranian “youth” was reflecting the view of all Iranians. This line had to have been transmitted through Khamenei’s office that already supported the embassy attack as “the people’s reaction” to Britain’s hostile economic action (sanctions).
Ahmadinejad attempted to undermine Larijani, a political competitor and possible presidential candidate in 2013. Ahmadinejad took a big political chance and went against the already established line by opposing the diplomatic sanctions already called for against Great Britain. A more cynical interpretation of the Iranian president’s tactic would suggest he recognizes that Ayatollah Khamenei does not support him or his political future, and in consequence Ahmadinejad decided to seek political support from the more moderate elements in Iranian politics. His turning to those who represent a less confrontational wing of Iran’s political life may be his only hope of continuing to remain a major player.
From a practical point of view the internal security service of VEVAK, the al Quds force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Council of Guardians are the operative instruments of Ayatollah Khamenei that hold the physical and ideological reins of power. If an individual or group seeks to wrest power from the existing structure militarily, judicially, or politically, they seemingly have an insurmountable obstacle to overcome. If a politician (in this case Ahmadinejad) takes a line contrary to that which is generally approved by the supreme leader’s office, but can point to a form of consent from one of the power centers (in this case, the Council of Guardians), he has covered himself.
The ultimate question then becomes whether or not Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can remain as the supreme leader, and the answer is in the hands of the religious hierarchy, not the electoral process. And the answer to this question has some very real implications for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Just what the rest of the world needs – a political power struggle in Iran while it develops nuclear weapons and buys delivery systems from North Korea.
But that’s just my opinion.
Add to that our own dear leader’s letter to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicating American weakness.
Iran’s state media, Mehr News*, ran this:
MP Ali Motahhari said that in President Obama’s letter the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is a red line, but at the same time, but that Obama is ready to negotiate to find a resolution to their mutual disagreements.
MP Hojjatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi disclosed more details from Obama’s letter.
He stated that Obama clearly indicated that U.S. will not take any hostile action against Iran and is interested in cooperation.
MP Hojjatoleslam Hossein Ebbrahimi continued, Obama said that cooperation and negotiation is based on the mutual interests of the two countries, and assured Iran that America will not take any action against the Islamic regime.
MP Hojjatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi concluded that, the letter shows the power of the Islamic republic and how America fears it.
An embarrassed Obama is now denying that he even sent this letter.
And it could be a pack of lies.
A few years ago Germany’s ex-chancellor was in an elevator with an Iranian.
Later the Iranian press ran stories picked up in the entire Muslim world to the effect that – when the two men were alone in that elevator – he had denied there ever was a Holocaust.
It took three weeks before the ex-chancellor even learned of this lie and debunked it.
But the damage was already done.
* My computer is now refusing to open that web site, although it had in the past.
Here is another Iranian source of this same information:
http://tehrantimes.com/politics/94692-details-of-obamas-letter-to-iran-released
A-jad is just a pawn, as is any Iranian “president.” The Mullahs are the ones in control.
Be cautious about visiting Iranian web sites. Many reports of attempted virus and Trojan insertions from those places.
Iran’s economy has been in ruins for thirty years. It’s kept that way by a political religious class that routinely skims, siphons, and extorts money from nearly everything. They also insist on being deeply involved in management decisions that they don’t have the background to understand. It’s sort of like a Communist country in that respect. The hacks steal and interfere, keep the economy captive, and don’t care about widespread destitution as long as they get theirs. Come to think of it, we’ve been moving in the same direction ourselves lately.
I think the talk about nuking Israel may be intentional misdirection. They are not going to do anything like that as long as 300 Israeli nuclear weapons are staring right back at them; no, for all their talk of not fearing death, they clearly care for worldly things. They might wish to take credit for bringing Israel down in some other way, but only to build up their own reputation, as a means to something else. The real target of Iranian intimidation is the nearby oil-producing Arab countries, because that’s where the money is. They want a Persian Empire redux, styled as a caliphate.
I think the leadership there live one step ahead of the Devil, insecure and scheming all their lives. The population must be distracted with external enemies, and made to live in fear. A stream of outrageous bluster towards other countries, Kaddaffi style, is like cloud of squid ink — camoflage — nobody can figure out exactly where they stand inside the Crazy Cloud.
WmT Sherman
It make sense to me, that is one machiavelik leader would think, he look like one
bye