Nancy Kanwisher has an interesting post where she measures who broke the ‘lull’ in the fighting between Israel and Hamas.
She presents charts showing who killed first after a lull of various lengths duration. Of course Israel has killed first in the majority of cases.
She claims:
The lessons from these data are clear:
First, Hamas can indeed control the rockets, when it is in their interest. The data shows that ceasefires can work, reducing the violence to nearly zero for months at a time.
In fact, it does NOT prove that “Hamas can control the rockets”. Her statistics include NO measure of rocket fire. Saying they prove something not measured and not directly related is dishonest.
She also claims the result was violence reduced to zero. Again the classic case of misdirection – present believable statistics about A and then conclude totally unrelated B. DEATHs might have been reduced to zero, but rocket attacks and homicide bombs certainly constitute violence, even if no one dies.
I challenge Nancy to compile a similar chart based upon “attack” rather than “kills”. I suspect that : a) there will be much fewer or no ‘lulls’; b) you will see a complete reversal of her 80/20. And Nancy, since you will have the data anyway, go ahead and indicate on a daily basis, exactly which party attacked the other. Lets see a count of how many days Hamas attacked Israel and how many days Israelattacked Hamas. This would show who is the aggressor, who is starting the fight.
Again, you will see Hamas on the attack MUCH more frequently than Israel and Israel turning the other cheek most days.
Just like in the current escalation, Hamas is simply not as good at killing their opponent. It is not from lack of trying. They WANT to kill. They TRY to kill. They PRAY to be able to kill. But they are incompetent. Once Israel finally gets tired of ducking rockets and fights back, they DO kill their opponent.
So yes, I believe your measure that Israel ‘kills’ first, but think that your conclusion is erroneous and not at all supported by your evidence. Your premise (only a death breaks a truce) is likewise flawed.
But I would love to see you try again!
And why did israel kill the palestinians first???
Could it be because the palestinians attacked israelis???? If you shoot at me but miss, then I shoot you down, it means I killed first????
This brain-bereft girl’s stats are dubious and I question her honesty. Another study might well show that it is hamas is TRYING to kill israeli citizens first.
Let’s not forget that Israel wants a 2-nation solution while Hamas seeks to murder genocide-style all israelis. This half-assed girl has forgotten this simple truth.
Okay. Is this (quite possibly anti-semitic) idiot aware of what a cease-fire actually is? Cease-fires are supposed to see an end of violence completely between parties, even if temporarily – not see it nearly reduced to zero. That’s why they’re called “cease-fires!” Bottom line, Hamas was firing rockets into Israel… repeatedly for the last three years (and don’t forget the stuff they were pulling before that). And, y’know, if they went time without launching rockets, it wasn’t a cease-fire – it was them simply re-loading. And it doesn’t matter if only a relative handful of Israelis were killed in those rocket attacks. Not a single one of them should’ve been killed in the first place. All of the violence and death on both sides is because of Hamas. Hamas started it. Hopefully, Israel will finish it and them.
And that is only thing I fault Israel for in this entire situation. They shouldn’t have spent most days turning the other cheek. They should’ve instead spent that time trying to blow off Hamas’ entire face.
I’m reminded of what Marvel’s Wolverine once said – “You always were second best! And in this business, second best don’t cut it!”
Oh, gee, someone at the Huffington Post not interested in evidence. Here’s another quote for ya from Transformers’ Dinobot – “What a startling revelation!” (quote’s sarcasm should, of course, be obvious.)
Incompetent? Far from it.
If Hamas rockets, lobbed regularly into Israel, actually resulted in high death counts of Israelis, they have no credible grounds on which to stand in the international world. They would lose their “victim status”, from where they find their strength. They use these low death rates to influence the gullible… like Huffpo Nancy.
“We are just trying to make a statement about humanitarian conditions” they say…. So they do it by launching rockets randomly into civilian areas, but meant to have a low death rate.
So I think you completely miss Hamas strategy, Mr. O.
Hamas much prefers to hang Israel in the int’l media…and at that they succeed regularly. This lends their cause support, and gives them credibility.
Any deaths are good for the global Islamic jihad movement. A dead Israeli is cause for their celebration, but gets them no closer to their goals.
But dead civilians … (assuming we can get an honest account of who was a “citizen” and who was a Hamas/terrorist supporter and collaborator) … resulting from Israeli attacks is a victory in their PR war.
Not being as well armed and hi tech as Israel, it is a very “competent” strategy to first win the PR war. Then the physical warfare is that much less demanding to win. Thus they attack, provoke… and if a few Israeli deaths happen enroute? Oh well… But body bags aren’t the objective. Provocation, response, and int’l “tut tut, Israel” is the object.
Nice looking graphs Nancy, but can you please chart hate and desire to push Israelis into the Mediterranean Sea… because pretty much unless Hamas is destroyed that will be their goal.
Israel lives in a dangerous neighborhood. If they allow Hamas or anyone to make unfettered attacks they will eventually be destroyed. It is not an academic argument for them, it is life and death. No doubt in Israel, and here, there are people who are concerned to the damage the attacks are having on innocent populations, which of course is proper to be concerned about. Lets just not get all caught up on civilian casualties since the civil leadership in Gaza is Hamas and ultimately in war is responsible for the safety of their populations. If Hamas was truly interested in keeping their people safe they would not provoke attacks nor keep their forces in populated areas.
Hamas uses the people of Gaza as canon fodder.
Please tell me Nancy hasn’t reproduced.
Wow, you guys at FA are tough. I really did not expect to have to go to that level (examining her reproductive history ! YIKES )
But then I am newly single and my standards are still pretty low so maybe I should take on the research . . . nahhhh!
They can dish it out, but not everyone can take it. Hard Right’s still mad at women since his mom suggested he kick in some rent for living in her basement.
Yes fit, how dare I criticize someone like you, but with a bigger penis. Lefties like fit are only brave behind a keyboard.
You had 800+ posts last month, you never even leave your keyboard.
whoever fired the first shot is the insigator if ya ask me. doesn’t matter who killed first, if you fired first and missed then you are a sucky shot and should just pack it in. i think isreal has every right to defend itself against hamas and to use whatever means they have at their disposal.
This goes along with the canard that Hamas rockets are crude and they “rarely hit what they’re aimed at” as one writer in our paper put it. As if they aim at all (except in the general direction of Israeli civilians). It’s the intent that matters, not the competence. But these knuckleheads will never see it. I’m just glad that the IDF & IAF are competent. I’m not so sure about their diplomats, though.
WHO BREAKS THE TRUCE?
Well, lets see, it couldn’t possibly be the Hamas Taliban that attacks a wedding celebration because they were singing, and who kills the groom and a number of the wedding guests. I mean, THEY wouldn’t DREAM of violating any agreements THEY made, would they?
from here…
http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/195773.php
referenced from here…
http://israelmatzav.blogspot.com/2009/01/video-hamas-killing-palestinians.html
These are the demons with whom Carter sympathizes, and on who’s behalf he advocates concessioins by Jews that will lead not only to Jewish deaths, but an escalation of terrorism worldwide due to Carter’s encouragement.
UPDATE – You’ve got to be properly taught…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTGbP55HGi8
h/t commenter “mohammed” over at gateway pundit