My take is this. If McCain can win the same states as Bush did in 2000, he will win. Therefore the battle ground states (IMO) are:
VA
PA
MI
CO
NM
NV
I think the big one will be Colorado….followed by NV.
VA might be an early test.
If, by the end of the night, McCain’s “Bush 2000” scenario is on track, and he takes CO (then NV), Obama will have to run-the-table (CA, OR, WA, HI and AK).
I don’t think He’ll take AK 🙂
FUN!
I see it as completely coming down to OH and FL again (maybe because I am in FL and met my wife in HS in OH)… I believe most of the states you list will go just like they did in 04:
Obama has leads in MI and PA and I think he will win those. The others that you mention are all McCain states in most polls and I think Palin helps in everyone of those states so his lead will grow. Plus most of the red states there are single digit electorally and will not be as big as FL combined. The beauty is that FL is still upset with the Dem party because of the moved primary date and Hillary won big as she did in OH. Those two combine to 47 votes, nearly 20% of what is needed to get elected!
McCain and Obama are virtually tied in each state too. It will definately be up to those two states to elect the next president in my opinion.
Interesting Curling.
You left off Florida. Obama has been spending a great deal of time and money there as this map which shows:
http://politicalmaps.org/rival-tickets-are-redrawing-battlegrounds/
And the latest polls show Florida very close.
A good map with lots of state by state info is here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/icon.html
roll the cursor over each state to see the latest poll result and compare it to elections in 2004 and 2000. Which way is the trend heading?
Ohio will also be hotly contested, but as of now, it looks like the weakness Obama had against Hillary in the southern portion of the state is giving a strong lead to Mccain.
Interesting that in the last few elections the gap in Pennsylvania favoring Democrats has narrowed and Obama is weaker there than either Kerry or Gore.
I see it being CO and OH. Ohio has a rather interesting quirk this time. New voters will be able to vote early when they register. Those lazy college kids will have several weeks to get their butts to the polls.
<a href=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/palin_doesnt_matter_numbers_do.html<Some numbers to ponder.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/palin_doesnt_matter_numbers_do.html
Ignore the editorializing, note the numbers.
Don’t get too excited about your chances in Ohio F.F. I’ve campaigned for one cause or candidate across half Ohio’s 88 counties and know the electorate like the back of my hand.
Hillary got over 80% in the Southern counties that border the Applachian region and those folks are going strong for Obama. Without them, Obama doesn’t stand a chance.