You just have to chuckle at these numbers:
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) kicks off his general-election campaign trailing both potential Democratic nominees in hypothetical matchups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) leads McCain, who captured the delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination Tuesday night, by 12 percentage points among all adults in the poll; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) holds a six-point lead over the GOP nominee. Both Democrats are buoyed by moderates and independents when going head to head with McCain and benefit from sustained negative public assessments of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
When you check out the data page:
901. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
| Democrat | Republican | Independent | Other | No op. | |
| 3/2/08 | 40 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 1 |
904. Do you lean more towards the:
| Democratic Party | Republican Party | (VOL) Neither | No op. | |
| 3/2/08 | 46 | 26 | 22 | 5 |
NET LEANED PARTY:
| Democrat | Republican | Independent | Other | No op. | |
| 3/2/08 | 55 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
With that kind of lopsided polling its a wonder Barack wasn’t 30 points ahead of McCain…
Sigh….
UPDATE
A reader left some other interesting facts about the numbers of this poll:
About 22% of the electorate sampled was between 18 and 29 years old.
About 17% of the electorate sampled was over 65 years old.
Even as bad as the exit polls have been, I haven’t seen the 18 to 29 year old vote equal 22% of the vote. It is probably closer to 15%, if that.
That age discrepancy accounts for a major bias towards Obama vs. Clinton. The results with respect to Clinton vs. McCain are close to other polls I have seen. The results with respect to Obama vs. McCain are not as close. But the poll is absolute garbage with respect to Clinton vs. Obama and Obama vs. McCain.
I would disagree with the reader on the numbers a bit. RCP averages have Hillary/McCain in a dead heat. But he does bring up an issue I didn’t look at. The ages of those polled, and historically those youngsters never show up to vote. They talk a good game but then move on to Wii or something else.
See author page
After Kerry, you would think the pollsters would be more careful.
Looking at the poll mechanics, it should terrify the left. With such a slanted poll, as Curt noted, the numbers are still very slim. One wonders what the poll would be like if Democratic and Republican voters were equally represented?
Not that I will hold my breath and as Gregory stated, after Kerry and Dean before him, you would think these pollsters would have rethought their methodology.
Gallup has also published similar numbers.
“In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent ?
(Asked of Independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)
Republicans (including leaners) Democrats (including leaners)
Feb 21-24 38% 53%
Feb 11-14 38% 54%
Of course as I have said before it is ALWAYS better to average a number of different polls such as Realclearpolitics.com
In the 2006 Federal elections the Democrats had about 16% total vote margin of victory in total of the races in the House, 42 million vs 35 million. This is the reason that “equal” numbers of Democrats and Republicans were not considered in the poll.
It’s gonna be harder for Democrats this fall than they imagine. Congressional candidates who were elected on the promise of ending the war in Iraq not only will have to be held ACCOUNTABLE for their failure and misleading, but will also have to explain how they’re gonna support a Democratic Presidential nominee who is committed to keeping the war going until 2013 unless the Bush Admin objectives are met. That’ll be interesting to watch. They’ll also have to explain how they were elected with the promise of fewer earmarks, and open pork barrel accountability when neither has happened. Fixing Social Security, medicare, etc? Nope. They failed there too. In fact, this Congress has been a worse failure than almost any other in history. Even the Iraqis are passing more legislation. Meanwhile, whether its Obama or Clinton, the empty hat promises of curbing spending as a means of fixing Social Security will have to have its contrast to the uber promised spending increases. And then there’s the war. John McCain hit the nail on the head-by making even the Dems forward-focused Obama use the left’s run-home-to-momma rhetoric about decisions made five years ago rather than 1 year ahead.
This doesn’t even touch on the internal divides over the Florida/Michigan primaries, the super-delegate influence rendering all previous votes irrelevant, and the increasing polarization between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters.
About 22% of the electorate sampled was between 18 and 29 years old. About 17% of the electorate sampled was over 65 years old. Even as bad as the exit polls have been, I haven’t seen the 18 to 29 year old vote equal 22% of the vote. It is probably closer to 15%, if that. That age discrepancy accounts for a major bias towards Obama vs. Clinton. The results with respect to Clinton vs. McCain are close to other polls I have seen. The results with respect to Obama vs. McCain are not as close. But the poll is absolute garbage with respect to Clinton vs. Obama and Obama vs. McCain.
Look, polls don’t matter a lot right now for the Dems. What they’ve got to look forward to overcoming is the internal party divide, the complete failure of their congressional candidates (something that has only started to be touched on for their Presidential senators), and the focus on their Presidential candidates once they get around to picking one. If it’s Hillary, you can bet cash money that every single bad thing that happened in the Clinton years, every scandal, every fubar, every unflattering video and audio is gonna be brought back from hiding. If it’s Obama, he’s gonna have to explain how he can be more bi-partisan and unifying than McCain despite the fact that their political records clearly show the opposite.
No matter what, 1/4 Floridians are gonna be pissed about how the DNC resolves their delegates, and that is all that is needed to give the state to a Republican.
No matter what, 1/2 Democrats is not gonna be happy with the Presidential nominee
No matter what, every Republican running to unseat a Democrat in Congress will be able to run comparison/contrast commercials showing the Democrat’s 2006 promises, and their failures.
These problems grow bigger every day.
Ramussen has McCain ahead daily since the NYT story. However they also show there has been a big shift of self identified Democrats. But that will only matter for Congress not the Presidential election.
Nobody wins through their party votes alone. Independents put people into office.
I take no “comfort” from these polls. The GOP slime machine has not kicked into high gear yet, and we all know how effective it is. Wait until the “Obama is Osmam” ads start gushing from TV’s all over the country, and the internet rumours of “Obama is a secret Muslim terrorist” e-mails start goign out on a dialy basis.
When enough dirt flows out, some of it always sticks. Lee Atwater knew it, and that lesson has not been lost on a single Republican since then.
Steve,
Looking in the mirror and projecting as usual. It is not the “GOP slime machine” which has to do anything. The Clinton and Obama “slime Machines” will do it for them.
Your predictions have already happened, but not as your typical two minutes hate against conservatives wispers in your ear. It is not the RNC that unleashed the emails/photos/insinuations, but the campaigns of Clinton and Obama tearing at each other.
Will you develope leftist “amnesia” (to use your own words from another post) and forget the Democratic primaries with their superdelegates/disenfranchised votes/attacks and blame it all on us “evil conservatives” who love to torture children?
He shouldbe talking about theClinton Slime Machine, they hav already put outthe memo that Obama is a Muslim, he is unfit tobe dog catcher andevenmadehim darkerina campaign video.
You need to look to the Left for all the smears. When the Republicans produce evidence and truth about a candidate that is called being slimed, hardly. Just look at the Swift Boats, they have not been refuted, but being Swiftboated is a bad thing. Well , Hells Bells, I thought telling the Truth was a good thing. But not if it is about a Democrat. Because you know they do everything for the children and never do anything wrong. theyare complete angels.
(the first) Scott (6), you are touching on a subject that needs a lot more attention: what happens when one of the Dems win: 1/2 the party is unhappy.
Suppose Obama wins. Will Hispanics migrate to McCain? After all, we are assured by the media that Hispanics are Hillary’s firewall, which is read: Hispanics don’t like blacks. Is it simply the racism of the Clinton campaign, or is it correct? Obama loses a big chunk of the vote. If the border issue is as important to Hispanics as the polls seem to think it is, then McCain already has big props with them.
Suppose Clinton wins. Blacks are completely unhappy. Some might even decide to vote Republican. Most will stay home “on the plantation” like Hillary told them to do. That oh-so vital under 30 vote? Hung down and brung down. It’s just politics as usual. The enthusiasm is gone.
It looks bad for the Dems.
Steve from Philadelphia, what a maroon you are! You want racism and slime? Look in the Clinton campaign. Major case of projection here, bud. But, hey, it’s all about the narrative, right. Fake but true.
Regarding my previous comment, there are certainly more 65+ people in the country now than there are 18-29 year olds or 30-39 year olds. So they are going to make up more of the vote. For example, life expectancy of women is about 83. There are more 50-64 year olds (baby boom generation) than 18-29 year old citizens of this country.
If age weren’t a factor in voting patterns, then this wouldn’t be a problem. But age has been a major factor in the Obama/Clinton race and would be in the event of an Obama/McCain race.
I never said that Democrats are innocent: Claiming that one’s own political party is incapable of sin is the province or Republicans.
What I did say, or at least imply, was that anything that came from Senator Clinton’s campaign is miniscule compared to the smears that will come from Conservatives in the Fall. The party that spread rumours about John McCain fathering illegitimate (African American) children after he dared to challenge George W. Bush will not stop at anything when it comes time to aim their mud throwers at those outside of The Party.
No big surprise here. And, it wouldn’t be surprising if this poll was recycled from 2000 and 2004.
By the time the newly-energized Hillary is done with Hussein even the young idealists will turn on him.