Thanks to Christine for bringing my attention to this interesting article that is alleging the recent Al-Qaeda video is a sign a major US attack is imminent:
The recently released video message from al Qaeda’s number two leader is part of a pattern that signals a countdown to a major terrorist attack within the next 30 days, warns a Washington D.C.-based analyst.
The new video was aired by the Qatar-based al-Jazeera satellite network on Jan. 6. In it Ayman al-Zawahiri portrays U.S. government discussion of troop withdrawal from Iraq as a victory for Islam.
“If your forces with all its aircraft, missiles, tanks and fleets are moaning, bleeding and looking for an escape from Iraq, then will the hypocrites, conspirators, infidels (the Iraqi government) resist what the ‘greatest power in the world’ has failed to resist?” al-Zawahiri asked.
But it is not the content of the video that is a sign of a possible imminent strike, said terrorism expert Christopher L. Brown. Instead, it is the timing of the video that is consistent with previous patterns. Brown, a researcher with a Washington think tank, has briefed members of Congress and senior administration officials on key threats, and he has prepared testimony and briefing materials for officials at the Department of Defense, State Department, CIA, National Security Council and the White House.
The pattern Brown observed is that each Zawahiri video appears to be part of a pair, with the second video followed by a significant attack within 30 days, outside of the major combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan.
The videos released on Sept. 9 and Nov. 9, 2004, were the first “set” and were followed by the Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, bombings on Dec. 6, 2004. The second “set” of videos was released Feb. 20 and June 26, 2005, followed by the July 7 London bombings. A third set of videos was released Aug. 4 and Sept 1, 2005, followed by the bombings in Bali, Indonesia, on Oct. 1, 2005.
A Cybercast News Service exclusive report on Sept. 8 of last year detailed Brown’s warning regarding an impending October attack.
The fourth set of videos, according to Brown’s theory was released on Oct. 23, 2005 and last week — Jan. 6.
“This pattern has held for at least three of al Qaeda’s last large-scale attacks,” said Brown, “This most recent video is likely a signal that a large-scale operation is about to be launched within the next 30 days. The question is where.”
A clue may be found in the Internet postings of the enigmatic Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades, said Brown. The brigades appear to be ‘green-lighting’ coming attacks prior to the release of the second video of each pair, Brown said.
The video that preceded the London bombings was itself preceded by a post by the “European division” of the brigades under the title, “Letter to mujahedeen in Europe.” The posting stated in part, “We now call on the mujahedeen around the world to launch the expected attack.” The message appeared on an al Qaeda-linked Internet forum.
Brown believes the larger pattern of two videos sandwiching an Internet posting by the Abu-Hafs al-Masri Brigades was repeated when a November web message declared that the upcoming attack would occur in the “land of the Romans,” widely seen as a reference to Italy.
The Internet posting, under the name of al Qaeda’s reputed military commander Saif al-Adel, mentioned future attacks involving unidentified poisonous substances and surface-to-air missiles procured from Chechnya. Brown notes that the Abu-Hafs Al-Masri Brigades are overseen by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the top al Qaeda terrorist in Iraq who is also known to have ties to Chechnya.
“It is even more interesting to note that Western intelligence officials believe that al Qaeda has had some of the most advanced Russian man-portable surface-to-air missile systems (the SA-18) within Europe for at least one year.”
[…]About Brown’s theory of a timing pattern and imminent strike, Dan Darling said “I definitely think there’s something behind this theory. One of my earliest observations about al Qaeda is that when people look for patterns they tend to forget to include events in places like Kashmir, Chechnya, Iraq. “Darling also noted that analysts often fail to take into account thwarted attacks. “Italy has arrested several members of GSPC cells intent on attacking Italy or U.S.-related installations,” said Darling. The GSPC is also known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Algerian group linked to al Qaeda. Italian officials announced on Dec. 23 that the suspected terrorists had plans to carry out attacks against the U.S. that would have surpassed 9/11.
Mighty interesting.? Not so sure I’m sold on this but I thought I should throw it out.? I believe they would love nothing better then to attack us on our soil once again but the measures Bush has put into place have made it VERY difficult to actually go through with it.? Of course the Democrats want nothing better then to make sure Al-Qaeda has a easy time of it.
See author page
If you count 30 days from Jan 6th you get Feb 5th. What happens on Feb 5th in Detroit? The Super Bowl.
http://www.sbxl.org/
very scarry analysis Mike beat me to the cell phone thing. especialy since they used that type of phone in the Madrid train bombings. just think what 150 cell phone bombs in several US cities would do.