What a 2024 Election Black Swan Sequence Looks Like

by CAPT. SETH KESHEL

As Election 2024 bears down upon us, you’ve undoubtedly heard the term Black Swan flung around.  An unfortunate reality of living in the post-2020 world is that we have come to expect government-inflicted bullshit that has no place in a free society, like ours was founded to be.  You remember this drill – while many of your friends who still won’t fess up today were diving under their beds to hide from a virus that only infects you while you are walking into a restaurant or boarding an aircraft, you were watching local small business die on the vine because the nations of the world decided the big, bad mean Tweeter had to go, and your feckless local leaders and businesses complied because they didn’t want to suffer the left-wing commentariat ripping them online, as if they would have had the power to malign and subsequently cancel thousands of like-minded professing patriots who could have chosen to stand together.

If you’re like me, you remember taking vicious hits from people who questioned the hardness of your heart, and how you could dare let grandmas die because you wanted to go out to eat or take your children to a play date or ballgame.  To them, nothing was more vital than not dying from COVID-19, even if you died from it while being sandwiched between semitrucks while riding a crotch rocket – even if it meant starvation related to economic decline, a spike in mental disease and depression that would lead to excess deaths from suicide, or the loss of several years’ worth of normalcy and childhood development critical for making functioning, well-adjusted adults.  That was the Black Swan event of 2020, and it went from Corona beer-related memes to cancelled sports seasons to contrived national emergency all in the span of about six weeks.  You remember where you were when the world shut down.  I was in Madison, Wisconsin, trying to get home from a sales trip when the Wuhan Flu pierced the collective national consciousness.

What is a Black Swan event, you ask?

A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict.  In other words, black swan events are events that are unexpected and unknowable.  The term was popularized by former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote about the concept in his 2001 book Fooled by Randomness (source linked above).

Lately, you’ve heard the still-brilliant Ron Paul and Lt. General (Ret.) Michael Flynn publicly warn of an inevitable Black Swan event taking America hostage in the very near future, perhaps within weeks of this writing.  My friends Master Sergeant (Ret.) Jack Dona and Lt. Colonel (Ret.) Steve Murray are also vocal about this topic, though their expectations for the severity, execution, and longevity of said event vary.  The rest of this article will be based around my Ten Bold Predictions for 2024, which I published on January 1. I have already nailed two of these predictions and need only time as my ally to nail two others in the process of being proven correct.  I highly recommend you familiarize yourself with my predictions before proceeding from here.

I’ll shoot straight – No, I do not believe Donald J. Trump will simply waltz into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue on January 20, 2025, with no serious effort to stop what would constitute an inevitable change of power in any timeframe prior to 2020.

So, how would a 2024 Black Swan designed to impact the U.S. General Election, or offer up a narrative for Congress to discard its results, look in light of how I believe 2024 will shake out as guided by my predictions?

Follow along:

I. Trump Challengers are Out

My third prediction, “GOP Primary Hindenburg,” is completely fulfilled. Ron DeSantis dropped out exactly when I thought he would, and Nikki Haley was propped up as the next option, treading water hoping for the two other contingencies to play out. The plan to avoid Trump via diplomatic means (beating him in the GOP primary) failed.

II. Cases Against Trump are Failing

Jack Smith’s crusade against Trump is losing steam and the little public support it had, barely getting any coverage in the mainstream press anymore, and is being delayed and pushed away to the extreme likelihood nothing can come to fruition until after November 5. Other cases are failing to land any impact whatsoever other than to make Trump a martyr and push people who may never again back a Republican candidate in his direction for one special occasion. This prediction, “All Judicial Persecution Against Trump Will Fail,” is in process of being nailed and was the bedrock upon which the hopes of the Trump challenges in the previous point laid their hopes for the nomination.

III. Trump Will Be on the Ballots

My fifth prediction, “The U.S. Supreme Court will Invalidate All Moves to Remove Trump from Ballots,” has come to fruition and was delightfully fulfilled when Jena Griswold had her plans for disenfranchising more than a million Coloradans slammed right back in her face by a 9-0 vote. The plan to make a path to 270 electoral votes impossible for Trump, thereby pressuring the GOP to play party games to select its own nominee, failed bigly.

IV. Trump Has Clinched the GOP Presidential Nomination

Trump will be officially nominated at the Republican National Convention, July 15-18 in Milwaukee. That means there are 115 days remaining to force a new nominee upon the GOP, and the first three options listed above failed to prevent a re-match against Biden.

V. No Plan to Remove Trump as GOP Nominee Makes Sense

Trump’s delegate count is too vast for any faithless delegate games to work. Any action to prevent Trump’s rise to the Presidency will need to take place after he is the nominee.

VI. Preparation is Underway to Rebut a Trump Victory

Some have forgotten John Podesta’s meetings “wargaming” potential 2020 election outcomes in Summer 2020. In one scenario, it was Team Biden who could refuse to acknowledge a Trump electoral victory, especially with a Democrat popular vote win that is made possible by having such a distorted result out of California, the ballot harvesting mother ship of the west.

Rolling Stone is out with a new article suggesting Team Biden is concerned it will be Trump attempting to “steal” the 2024 election, though the article is bereft of any technical explanation of just how said theft will be set in motion. Perhaps most concerning are the tiered resignations of dirtbag Republican Congressmen like Ken Buck and Mike Gallagher, which further erodes a slim GOP majority that has been dwindling since the expulsion of George Santos. Democrats are likely to add members to Congress with a few special elections, and it is within the realm of possibility that the Republicans will lose the House majority and turn over the keys to a Democrat Speaker, almost certainly Hakeem Jeffries. This new Democrat majority would have the benefit of incumbency and therefore have better odds of holding those seats in November, thereby enhancing the odds of it being a Democrat-majority House seated on January 6, 2025, when 538 electoral votes are counted and certified.

While fact has never stood in the way of a good Uniparty plan to defraud the nation, it is likely that justifying a non-certification of a Trump victory, which would likely take 90 million or more ballots to offset, will require an impetus for execution of such a plan.

VII. The Art of Projection

What do you do when five out of eight American likely voters believe your entire presidency was decided by widespread electoral fraud, and even at that, you only “won” by 42,918 strategically placed ballots in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, your opponent is polling better with every single voting Demographic except for one (post-grad Whites) than he did in 2020, is now consistently ahead of you in national and swing state polling, and voters everywhere are deeply convinced they increasingly have no legitimate voice when it comes to elections?

You accuse your enemy of what you did.

See, no voter fraud in Georgia or Arizona, Trump won those states.

We knew Trump would try and steal this election (see Rolling Stone article).

The conversation about fraudulent elections is in the air, and this time it has been raised by Mr. 81 million votes himself.

VIII. The Act of Chaos

In my predictions, number six states, “Violence (or War) will be the ‘COVID’ of 2024.” Just last week, Barack Obama appeared in London, arguably a Hatch Act violation, and shortly thereafter, ISIS claimed responsibility for a terror attack in Moscow, seemingly for no other reason than to goad Vladimir Putin into an overwhelming military response that would demand a response from the West, and risk plunging the United States into a global conflict. If you need a refresher, tensions in Eastern Europe escalated into a full-blown World War within six weeks of the assassination of the Franz Ferdinand in 1914. The world is one giant tinderbox and responds accordingly when provoked. One major strike against global conflict is the fact that war hasn’t been a boon for incumbent presidents since World War II, if not before.

Domestically, we have a 1,954-mile long gushing wound known as our border with Mexico along the southern end of our country. Just last week, our National Guard troops in El Paso were overrun by a horde with strikingly few (read: none) women and children, which would have been mowed down with machine guns and Claymore mines if they were attempting to trespass into Mexico from Guatemala. Violence, or the potential for it, is a constant presence in this Fourth Turning, and the likelihood of its occurrence is only expedited thanks to instant provocation available through social media and Artificial Intelligence. Think Zimmermann Telegram propaganda on technologically enhanced steroids.

I don’t believe another virus outbreak will have the same impact and would very likely lead to an impenetrable union of sheriffs or law enforcement officials that completely disregards the wishes of the federal government. They played that card, and the fallout has crippled small businesses, particularly those owned by minorities who will be voting for the other party for the first time ever this fall. Mass, organized violence and other chaos committed on our soil by the millions of imported military-aged males originating from countless nations is a much more likely option for controlling the public and dictating nefarious outcomes than the release of a manmade virus.

IX. Center of the Universe

It is no secret that the Democrats control the nation from a disproportionately small footprint of coastal enclaves and a few random islands throughout the heartland, such as Chicago or Denver. In fact, I’ve written repeatedly that the Democrat Party controls the electoral votes of 18 states with a single county in each. It should come as no surprise, then, that America’s perpetual “guests” from south of our border come to settle in their concrete shitholes, safe from any serious effort to enforce immigration laws and eligible to benefit from tax dollars coerced out of U.S. citizens. The map below, by Colonel (Ret.) Jack Pryor, highlights the mostly urban counties in which cartel cells are rooted. In three-quarters of those counties (107 out of 143), cartel presence coincides with counties rated as critical for election manipulation in the 2020 race. Cartels thrive under corruption, and they largely seek out lawless, Democrat-run hellscapes within which they do business under cover of darkness.

With criminal cells (cartels and others) active, it is possible that Americans in every corner of the country, especially those in urban or suburban areas, where most Americans live, will be subject to attacks like those executed in Israel on October 7, 2023, with violence as common as any Tuesday in Chechnya.  The impact would call for further alteration of the way elections are run on the fly, just like it was done in 2020 without legislative approval in almost every state that did so, starting with more states adopting shotgun-blasted mail ballots for all, and culminating in the big, fat mess brought about us by ballot harvesting taking root in more states.  Uncontrollable gang violence would also mandate further proliferation of unsupervised drop boxes to limit exposure to the outside world and any potential for being physically harmed, revisiting the psychology of injecting fear in the hearts of the people so as to extend control over human behavior, and therefore, outcomes.

In the event of an apparent Trump win, a case could easily be made thanks to the presence of cartels in major urban areas, that the win was illegitimate because of depressed turnout in the disparately impacted areas, or even worse, that Republican involvement in ballot harvesting, or any other accusation that may stick, in less-impacted Republican areas provided the needed margins for Trump to carry the pivotal states on the path to 270 electoral votes.  In recent news, Democrat judges in Democrat states have been upending Democrat wins caused by Democrat ballot harvesting.  He who lives by the sword dies by the sword.

X.                         Fine Print

The 12^th Amendment requires the President and Vice President to be elected with a majority of 538 electoral votes, which equals 270.  Given that roughly 367 electoral votes are all but decided going into a modern election (191-176 in favor of Democrats), 1980s level landslides are a thing of the distant past.  I consider it highly likely that President Trump will hold all states he was certified as having won in 2020, which is now a hand worth 235 electoral votes, meaning Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (19) would make an even 270 majority.

If no ticket is certified by Congress as having lawfully received 270 electoral votes, then the election is thrown to the House for the Presidency, and to the Senate for the Vice Presidency.  The Senate chooses among the top two candidates who received electoral votes (presumably Kamala Harris and Trump’s running mate), with each Senator casting a single vote, but the election in the House is tricky.  Each state delegation casts a single vote based on a majority vote by that state’s delegation.  For example, Ohio has 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats in the U.S. House.  One would expect Ohio’s vote would go for Donald Trump, with the vote likely coming out to 10-5 internally before being counted in the House as one of 26 votes needed for election.

Republicans have the majority delegation of these 26 states:

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Minnesota and North Carolina are split.

The rest are majority Democrat, including Alaska, which botched its own elections by instituting Ranked Choice Voting.

What this means is that you can bet your bottom dollar there will be widespread cheating in Minnesota and North Carolina to not only potentially turn Trump away (and in states with hot Senate races, like Arizona), but to unsplit the House delegations in their favor to draw the House to 26-24 in favor of Republican delegations, and then every effort to pressure, coerce, and threaten states with little or weak-spined representation to not stick with the party line vote will be expended.

How does this look in practice?  After a week of counting, Trump has apparent victories in every state he carried in 2020 (235 electoral votes), plus Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), and Wisconsin (10), for a presumptive total of 306 electoral votes.

Allegations of fraud and widespread suppression, perhaps exacerbated by orchestrated violence and chaos, are levied against Team Trump with regard to victories in the Midwest, impacting the 44 electoral votes of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  The House certified Trump’s victories in Arizona and Georgia, but upholds challenges to the 44 contested electors, leaving Trump stranded at 262 and triggering the Contingent Election.

Conclusion

As scenarios play out and disqualify previously feared sequences of events (like Trump being removed from ballots), potential options for any shock events, or sequence of events, that may alter the course of the 2024 presidential race emerge by default.  While what I have described here is very specific and therefore capable of being set aside by the slightest event, it is clear that narratives are being set to manage and attempt to neutralize an apparent Trump victory in November.  To believe there will be no resistance to a second Trump term is to be as naïve as your friends who believed a cloth mask with spaces in the fabric larger than the virus particles themselves would be sufficient to prevent infection and spread.

Stay alert and pay attention to the narratives spun by those who wish to relegate you to the dustbin of human history.

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