Ukraine’s Offensive Strategy: A Recipe for Disaster

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

What kind of madness is the Ukrainian ‘offensive’ attempt? They are going against one of the densest prepared defenses in history, while pretty much either evenly matched or even outnumbered numerically, and having zero air cover. And that’s not to even mention having a 1:10 artillery disparity not in their favor. There is no sane general in history who would even attempt such a thing. In order to have a successful offensive even with a peer-level force you’re equally matched to in armament you need to have a huge numerical advantage in troops to stand a chance.

Here’s Pepe on the AFU’s losses from his ‘source’:

 
Also, retired French general Jean-Bernard Pinatel gave his own detailed assessment that there is zero chance for Ukraine to succeed as Russia is superior “in every possible way”:

[metaslider id=173818]
 
In fact, Ukrainian defense secretary Danilov even announced that the goal of the offensive is no longer to “move forward” but rather simple attrition:

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov announced a change in the counteroffensive strategy of the country’s armed forces. According to him, at this stage of the offensive, moving forward is not the main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He specified that the defense forces of Ukraine now see the number one task as ” maximum destruction of manpower and equipment.”

An ex-commander of Chechen troops came short of dismissing the ‘offensive’ entirely:

⚡️⚡️⚡️Ex-commander of a group of troops in Chechnya, Lieutenant General Pulikovsky – about the reasons for the futility of the APU offensive:⚡️⚡️⚡️

❗️I do not consider this offensive dangerous. Yes, heavy fighting is underway, but if it were an offensive, it implies, firstly, the creation of a strike force. Someone comes in the first echelon, someone in the second, someone develops success. There is no such strike force in Ukraine.

❗️They have about five more brigades of fresh ones somewhere. But in order to develop the offensive, the second element after the creation of the grouping is the fire defeat of the enemy. And artillery, and aviation, and missile strikes. It is impossible to advance without it.

❗️They are looking for weaknesses in our defense on a wide front, sending small detachments, poking their noses into our defense and looking for a weak spot. They haven’t found him yet, and they’re unlikely to find him. Therefore, indeed, the defense of our troops is prepared very, very qualitatively.

So now that the inevitable is obvious, there’s more rumor and talk of secret negotiations happening behind the scenes for a ceasefire.

💥💥💥According to NBC television, the former US officials met secretly with Russian officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in an attempt to advance the basis for the possibility of negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine.💥💥💥

[metaslider id=173823]
 
Read the article here.

On the agenda of the April meeting were some of the thorniest issues in the war in Ukraine, like the fate of Russian-held territory that Ukraine may never be able to liberate, and the search for an elusive diplomatic off-ramp that could be tolerable to both sides.

So, the U.S. apparently is looking for a way out that ‘saves face’ for both itself and Russia.

Most interesting was, the talks were allegedly helmed by the very same CFR president Richard N. Haass I recently profiled:

Sitting down with Lavrov were Richard Haass, a former diplomat and the outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations, current and former officials said. The group was joined by Europe expert Charles Kupchan and Russia expert Thomas Graham, both former White House and State Department officials who are Council on Foreign Relations fellows.

As you can see, this guy gets around. Of course, it’s all CFR alumni who are secretly negotiating on the U.S.’s behalf. It goes to show the CFR’s true underhanded power in world politics.

The article goes to note that when CIA director Burns went to Kiev recently, he also listened to ideas around the prospect of establishing ‘peace talks’ by year’s end. If you recall, I had months ago predicted this would be the course simply due to the fact that the democrats would need to wrap the war up by the time of the ‘Big Show’ of the election cycle next year.

But before anyone panics, such talks are not indicative of Russia necessarily acquiescing or even being open to compromises. No where has Russia yet signaled such a thing, and in fact every single top Russian official is signaling the complete opposite: increasingly maximalist goals.

A recent Op-ed by Medvedev himself was unequivocal in its demands.

 
I urge everyone to read the fire-and-brimstone piece. In the article, Medvedev names the “top three things the Anglo-Saxons must come to realize”:

1. The confrontation with the West has become global. It is a total confrontation between the West and the rest of the global east and south rebelling against their hegemony.
2. The confrontation will be very long, and it is too late to tame the mutineers. In short, he’s saying that they are dug in for the long haul and nothing the West can do will change Russia or the rest of the world’s mind. He says this confrontation will last for ‘decades’ and urges the West to accept it now to lessen the shock.
3. What is Russia willing to do to ‘compromise’ or end the confrontation: the only thing that will end it, according to Medvedev, is that all anti-Russian initiatives must be completely revoked, and the Kiev Nazi regime should be totally “annihilated”.

 
Read the rest of the article to see his other points, but the short of it is: Russia will not stop until the entire Kiev Nazi regime is completely destroyed, uprooted, extirpated, deracinated, and fumigated.

There is no way, of course, that U.S. would openly support such a measure, however, one possible long-shot prediction I can make is the following. If things progress much worse by the end of this year, and the U.S. begins to get desperate as the 2024 election cycle grows near, and the festering sore of this war is still not comfortably cleaned up and threatens to become a major lightning rod and open wound for Biden’s campaign, then there is a possibility that U.S. can make a secret agreement with Russia to ‘throw Zelensky under the bus’.

The reason this would work is because we know there’s already been months of rumors of Zaluzhny butting heads with him and secret power struggles within Bankova, with rumors swirling that Zaluzhny himself could overthrow Zelensky who’s increasingly unpopular with the actual armed forces. It’s said that Zaluzhny is the second most popular figure in Ukraine. So it could be possible that if brought close enough to the brink, U.S. will secretly sponsor a coup to get rid of Zelensky and wrap up the war with a secret agreement with Russia to partly save face on both sides. Russia would get their desired effect of having ‘brought down Zelensky’s regime’ while making some concessions to make U.S. not look as bad.

Of course, in many ways it’s improbable from Russia’s side simply because there are many other maximalist goals Russia likely still holds, like regaining Odessa and other territories, but you never know. It all depends on what the U.S. controllers are willing to give up on Ukraine’s behalf.

Read more