by Matt Margolis
A new Suffolk poll of black voters in two crucial swing states has come out and to say the news is devastating for Joe Biden is an understatement.
We’ve talked about how Joe Biden has been losing significant support from black voters since 2020, and this new poll continues to show the same trend.
In Pennsylvania, Biden gets 56% of the black vote, with Donald Trump getting 11%. Third party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein collectively get 16%.
In Michigan, another must-win state for Joe Biden, he captures only 55% of the black vote, compared to Donald Trump’s 15% with another 15% going to the third party candidates.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: [Among Black voters]
Pennsylvania
🟦 Biden: 56%
🟥 Trump: 11%
🟨 West: 8%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 13%
—
Michigan
🟦 Biden: 55%
🟥 Trump: 15%
🟨 West: 8%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 15%
—
76% of those surveyed in each state said they…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2024
As USA Today notes, these numbers show that Biden “has suffered significant losses among Black voters who supported him in 2020.”
Seventy-six percent of those surveyed in each state said they voted for Biden four years ago. Now, his support has fallen 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania (to 56%) and 22 points in Michigan (to 54%).
Exit polls in 2020 showed Biden received 92% of the Black vote in each state, making his decline now even more precipitous.
The top reason volunteered by respondents in the survey was discontent with the job he’s done in the White House, followed by worries about his age and mental acuity. Third was concern about wars, including his support for Israel in the conflict in Gaza.
Biden was viewed favorably by 61% to 31% in Michigan and 59% to 33% in Pennsylvania. While a net positive, it’s an anemic showing for a candidate among a part of the electorate that for decades has overwhelmingly supported his party.
To compare, former president Barack Obama, the nation’s only Black president, had favorable ratings of 88% to 9% in Michigan and 84% to 11% in Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Trump received increased support among black voters compared to four years ago. He’s up six points in Michigan with black voters compare to 2020, and up eight points in Pennsylvania.
While this doesn’t sound like much, even USA Today concedes that slight shifts in support like this could sway a closely contested election—and both states appear to be close.
