The Z Man
Since the failure of the Ukrainian offensive last summer, the question that remains unanswered is how does the war in Ukraine end? All wars end eventually, with most ending in a negotiated settlement. If the Ukrainians armed with everything NATO can supply are unable to push back the Russians, then their most logical next step is to find a solution at the negotiating table. The West should also be looking for a way out of what has become a quagmire for them.
To date, Ukraine has showed no signs of understanding their position in the war, instead demanding more weapons and the unconditional surrender of Russia. The West has also ruled out a negotiated settlement. Europe is still talking about finding new weapons to send to Ukraine and Washington just secured a new aid package. Ukraine has also passed a new mobilization bill with the aim of press-ganging what amounts to a new army while not demobilizing existing forces.
That is the first clue as to where things are heading. Various Ukrainian sources have made statements about the current state of the army. Military sources say the army is forty percent short of men. They need 100,000 new soldiers to fill the front lines and another 150,000 for reserves. Do a little math and that means they need an army of 625,000 to match the Russians and currently have 375,000. In other words, they are currently outnumbered by at least two-to-one.
The first thing to note here is that the Ukrainian government, Zelensky himself, has claimed to have mobilized one million men. This is explains this Washington Post story last month focusing on the 700,000 missing men. This works out to be about thirty thousand men per month, which lines up with Russian figures on the Ukrainian losses, both killed and severely wounded. It also explains why Western intelligence sources have said Ukraine could collapse this summer.
This would also explain the fanaticism with which the regime pushed to get the Ukraine spending package through Congress. The administration is now haunted by a much larger version of the Afghanistan debacle unfolding in Europe. Imagine millions of Ukrainian refugees flooding into Europe right around when Trump is doing a presidential debate from prison. The hope is that an influx of aid will hold off the inevitable for long enough to drag Biden’s carcass across the finish line.
The spending package itself is the typical boondoggle. Most of the money is going to friends of government to help them further rob the middle-class. Another ten billion will go to Ukraine to pay salaries and pensions. Much of it will be stolen. Another fifteen billion could pay for weapons, but the warehouses are empty, and the West lacks the things Ukraine needs. There are no air defense systems or artillery tubes sitting around waiting to be sent to Ukraine.
There is a bigger problem with sending aid to Ukraine. it appears the political situation inside the Ukraine military is becoming unstable. The Azov battalion, for example, has become increasingly insubordinate. An ultranationalist brigade made up of Right Sector volunteers had to be disbanded due to insubordination. Some elite units have chosen to surrender rather than fight. These are all signs of an army that is exhausted from two years of fighting a war of attrition.
Another clue as to where things are heading emerged recently when the Russian U.N. representative, Vasily Nebenzya, warned the West that not only would further military aid to Ukraine make no difference, but it would mean “the only peace discussion it would have was of Ukraine’s unconditional surrender.” Additionally, members of the Putin government have now made it clear that there will be no negotiations with Zelensky or Ukraine as long as Zelensky is president.
Up to this point, the Russians have been careful to keep the door open to sitting down with the Ukrainians to hammer out a deal. Their position in 2023 was that they would like to return to the deal worked out in Istanbul in 2022. That changed this winter to that deal being the starting point of a new potential deal. Now it is clear that there is no interest in dealing with Zelensky at all and that soon the Russians will abandon the idea of a negotiated settlement entirely.
These three data points now frame what can happen next. Washington is not interested in any deal with the Russians. The Russians have concluded they cannot deal directly with the Ukrainians and there may be no deal with the West. The rapidly deteriorating condition of the Ukrainian military means it will break in the next year but could also collapse at any time. In other words, the war is now a game of chicken in which the West just assumes the Russians will blink.
What this suggests is that inside Washington has evolved an absolutist point of view in which the only tolerable outcome is the absolute position. In the case of the Ukraine war, the only acceptable outcome is the total submission of Russia. All other scenarios are ruled out as intolerable. We saw this with the Ukraine spending bill. There was no room for negotiations. Attempts to negotiate resulted in greater demands until the Republicans folded and submitted to everything.
In other words, even as conditions in Ukraine deteriorate, it is unlikely the West will seek out a deal with the Russians. Instead, they will seek ways to drag out the inevitable, operating on the assumption that the Russians will eventually blink. This is an irrational position, as the Russians have no reason to change course. If anything, they have new motivations to find additional pressure points on the West. Based on recent statements, the Russians seem to understand this.
This may be a foreshadowing for what lies ahead for the West. The adoption of an absolutist position is a sign of fear. Instead of adapting to changing conditions, the leadership is becoming paranoid and delusional. There is a Hitler in the bunker vibe to what we are seeing in Washington. That means the end game in Ukraine may be a clue as to how things unfold for the American empire across a range of things. The end game of the empire is coming into focus.
