NATO’s Escalating Rhetoric: A Desperate Response to Russian Military Successes

by Simplicius The Thinker

We continue to ask: why these desperate threats from NATO? Let’s examine that some more.

Zelensky just arrived in Turkey, where some believe he may be in secret talks regarding a settlement of the conflict. It’s been pointed out, for instance, that he recently issued a decree of partial de-mobilization for conscripts:

 
The gist of it is people mobilized during the early period may be released into the reserve, however the “catch”—at least as I understand it—is that they are then prevented from being re-mobilized for 12 months. So it’s—in effect—a ‘rotation’ that would give them a potential 12 month respite. Some have taken this to mean Zelensky is winding down the war, but in reality it seems more a measure to cool the furor on this issue, which has resulted in many protests from soldiers’ families.

However, the pressure on Zelensky is clearly rising. Right Sector leader Yarosh recently appeared to threaten Zelensky:

 
He in essence states that Zelensky is destroying Ukraine, and that the opposition must soon come together as one patriotic force and spend the entire calendar year of 2024 fashioning a unification of this vanguard to engineer a new maidan.

The general direction was echoed by Aidar’s Mosiychuk, who said that Zelensky’s presidential term has a few months left, and forces are slowly consolidating around Zaluzhny:

 
As for the rumors of secret peace talks in Turkey, Zelensky issued a statement completely rejecting any peace summit with Russia:

 
However, he seemed to imply that he will allow the West to take the lead and create some sort of conditions to parley with Russian representatives.

This was after the Pope urged Ukraine to hoist the white flag:

 

 
Of course, next we have the fact that the Matron of Maidan—or is that the Maiden of Maidan?—Nuland is getting the boot:

 

 
And is being replaced with the guy who was hurriedly ad hoc’d into helming the ‘disastrous’ Afghanistan pullout:

 
Which of course has led many to naturally conclude the ‘clean up guy’ is being brought in to put the toe tags on the Ukrainian project. However, he’s only the ‘temporary’ replacement, and Biden has in fact nominated Asia-expert Kurt Campbell for the top spot. This further insinuates a Biden administration pivot toward the Chinese theater and away from the disastrous Ukrainian one.

“Kurt Campbell played a key role in developing President Barack Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ into President Biden’s Indo-Pacific strategy,” Yuri Tavrovsky, chairman of the expert council of the Russian-Chinese Friendship, Peace and Development Committee, told Kommersant.

“In practical terms, he was particularly active in the creation of the anti-Chinese military bloc AUKUS (Australia, the UK and the US) and in strengthening the military component of the QUAD group (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – Australia, India, the US and Japan,” Tavrovsky said. “The appointment of Campbell to the second-highest post in the State Department demonstrates the White House’s long-term course of containing China, despite words and gestures that look like a desire for reconciliation.”

Thus, according to Mr Tavrovsky, “the second place in the State Department went not to the greatest hater of Russia, but to the greatest hater of China.”

Some, like Russia’s Zakharova, believe that Nuland’s ouster is a sign that, internally, it’s been recognized within the Biden administration that the neocon course on Ukraine had become a dead end, particularly when Nuland was given such a ‘free hand’ to conduct that theater to her wishes.

Now, in further exploring the question of NATO’s suddenly escalating rhetoric, let’s skim the fecund field of the latest MSM headlines, to get a temperature gauge on where things are at:

“The armed forces of Ukraine will not survive the conflict with Russia without the help of the West. The Russians have more of everything. Tanks, artillery, manpower and aircraft. “We have much less. And they have been preparing for this conflict for a long time. Unfortunately, we didn’t do this. We can only survive if the West comes to our aid and gives us more weapons,” said a Ukrainian Armed Forces officer.

The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces mercilessly compared the Russian President to Machiavelli.

“Putin is deceiving. He wants to achieve results. He believes that the end justifies the means,” he noted. He stated that democratic Kyiv is fighting totalitarian Moscow. He predicted that the outcome of the biggest war in Europe since 1945 would determine which political system or “pole” would dominate the next century.”

 

 

 

 

 

 
The above headline, by the way, comes from this fascinating CNN report which details just how badly Russia’s supposedly “destroyed” and “inept” airforce is wrecking the AFU:

 
Then we have the Abrams, the fourth specimen of which has been destroyed today, with Russian fighters reportedly posing for selfies in front of it:

 

 
That’s not to mention reports that Russia captured a fully intact Leopard 2A6:

 
Russian UN rep Polyanskiy:

 
Then we have the biggest developments of all:

Russia has been on an absolute killing spree of NATO air defense and other ‘prestige’ systems, with the Patriot reportedly being the latest victim yesterday—confirmed by Forbes:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
By the way, isn’t it interesting how Patriots easily “shot down” all those Kinzhals—a far superior, upgraded version of the Iskander—over Kiev, yet here a measly Iskander put the Patriot out to pasture? Just food for thought.

But what is my point here? HIMARS, Abrams, Patriots, and everything in between are now getting obliterated each day. Time is running out, with Ukrainian opposition openly plotting against Zelensky who many expect to be overthrown come May. Meanwhile, Russia continues to only get stronger, with production ramping up all the time.

Thus, it’s only natural that NATO is looking at all the emergency options available to them to save Ukraine at the final hour. The only question is, when will that hour be, exactly? Judging by the sheer urgency of NATO’s recent actions it feels like it’s coming up within months.

One of the reasons for that is there continue to be rumors, now including from the West, that Russia intends to launch a new mass-scale offensive at the start of spring, after Rasputitsa wears off:

From Rezident UA:

MI6 has transmitted new intelligence to the Office of the President and the General Staff that the Russian army is increasing its stockpile of missiles and UAVs for a major counter-offensive, which could begin in May-June this year. British intelligence assumes that the main blow will be made on Selidovo-Pokrovsk, to create a springboard for a future operation to cut the Ukrainian front.”

And the recent Bloomberg piece quotes infamously dilatory Michael Kofman with the urgent remark that Ukraine could start losing the war this year for good.

 
Polish general Bohuslav Pacek likewise opined that Russia will start breaking through by April:

 

Very soon, Russian troops will fully seize the initiative in the free defense zone. Polish General Bohuslav Pacek expressed confidence in this in an interview with RMF FM radio station.

“The turning point of the situation in favor of Russia will occur, in my opinion, at the end of April — in May, when there will be favorable weather conditions for this,” the general said.

Bohuslav Pacek noted that the military assistance of American and European allies to Ukraine is clearly not enough.

Couple that with rumors of Russia opening up a new line of attack from the north and it’s easy to see why NATO may be so pressed to scramble for contingencies to save their precious milking goat.

Recall the predictions from U.S. congressmen like Schumer and co. who said Ukraine could start facing a ‘catastrophic’ situation within two or so more months, and would begin having to make critical decisions on “which cities to hold and which to give up”.

But even if that were to become the case by May-June, and Russia were to launch a robust series of offensives, Ukraine’s lines may begin to crumble, but Odessa and Kiev would likely not be at threat for quite a while longer. Even with totally collapsing lines, the most Russia could hope for in the medium term future is to reach the Dnieper River—and the likelihood of even that happening this year is very low.

That’s all to say that NATO still has time before the situation turns so critical as for Odessa to be in the crosshairs. But as one of the earlier rumors said, if things got really bad for Ukraine, there’s a possibility NATO could provide an escape route by positioning its forces at the Dnieper, allowing the AFU to escape behind the river, and drawing the new Korean-style DMZ demarcation at the river.

 
That all being said, here’s one recent take from a Ukrainian military account about a potential new Russian incursion from the north—the AFU claims they have everything under control:

Who hasn’t called me or written to me about the threat of a Russian invasion from the direction of Sumy.

Yes, there is a group of several tens of thousands of Russian troops there. We, of course, see this and strengthen our forces, they see that we strengthen ours and also become more active. Our soldiers near the borders see activity, call their relatives and that’s how rumors are born.

I already wrote that in the era of satellites and UAVs, it is impossible to hide anything (especially the movement of equipment).

Will they go there across the border?

And who knows them. After February 24, 2022, nothing can be surprising.

Given that the West funds Ukraine entirely, the war hasn’t had as much of a disruption on Ukrainian society as would normally be the case. That means as long as Zelensky—or whoever’s in charge a few months down the line—can keep a semblance of control, Ukraine could potentially weather some of the storm and eke out just enough mobilizations to hamper Russian advances.

New packages continue being discussed:

 

US Republican lawmakers are drafting a bill that would dole out some non-military aid to Ukraine as a loan, rather than a gift, NBC News reported on Friday. While the GOP views the plan as a compromise between the party’s pro- and anti-Kiev factions, Democrats insist that their no-strings-attached $60 billion aid bill is “the only way forward.”

 
And France is reportedly scrambling to get more equipment to Ukraine by ungifting their stuff from other countries—a very telling move that reveals the depletion of France’s own remaining gear:

France is negotiating with Arab countries about the return of the sold French weapons for their further transfer to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron announced this during a press conference. Macron said his country would no longer supply shells and artillery systems to Qatar and Saudi Arabia to focus on supporting Ukraine.

A Ukrainian fighter writes that even if a new round of mobilization were to occur now, its effects would not be felt for months. He says he leaves it to the reader to conclude what that would mean, relaying an anecdote about how things are so bad on the front AFU commanders are lying about their positions:

 
Well, judging by his final comment: hope springs eternal—or so they say.

Beyond that, Ukraine has been ratcheting up its stop-and-go attempts at building their version of the Surovikin line. You can see some of the alleged results here:

 

 
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