The news keeps getting better regarding the Hoffman, Scozzafava, Owens race. Scott Johnson from Powerline relates a conversation he had with a friend and “principal of the political consulting firm of Red Sea LLC and the polling firm Basswood Research,” Jon Lerner.
Following up on Rothenberg’s column, I called Jon to ask for his take on the congressional election. He made so many interesting points that I asked him to reiterate them briefly in a message for Power Line readers. Jon writes:
To recap our discussion of NY-23, I have done three surveys for the Club for Growth. The initial survey was conducted at the very outset of the race, before any advertising was done by anyone. At that time, “Republican” Dede Scozzafava held a narrow lead. But it was apparent that her lead would not withstand the heat of battle.
About half of her support came from Democrats in the Watertown area who knew her pro-labor, liberal voting record and liked it. The other half came from Republicans who did not know about her liberal record but were supporting her because she was the Republican candidate. Once Democrats quickly learned that they could vote for a real Democrat, Bill Owens, they left Scozzafava. And once Republicans learned how liberal her record was, and that they had a conservative alternative in Doug Hoffman, they also left Scozzafava.
What remains is a close race between Owens and Hoffman, with Scozzafava continuing to collapse. Financially, Hoffman is in good shape, thanks largely to the Club for Growth and online donations. The DCCC, AFSCME, and SEIU are now 100 percent negative against Hoffman in their TV ads, which is proof of the closeness of the race.
What remains of Scozzafava’s vote is still about 2:1 Republican, so Hoffman has a good chance of growing further. But it’s a close one that could go either way.
Ironically, the one person who is doing the most harm in the race is Newt Gingrich. Scozzafava has no chance to win any longer. By Newt signaling to conservatives that it’s okay to support Scozzafava, he is making it more likely that Owens wins.
Even the NRCC understands this, as they have wisely limited their advertising message to attacking Owens rather than promoting Scozzafava. If Hoffman wins, and he very well might, it will be a great victory for the conservative movement, and a great lesson to the Republican Party.
Not sure what in the hell Newt is thinking. When the day comes that conservatives vote for someone just because he is Republican, and for no other reason ie: having a real conservative background, then we know we are sunk as a party.
UPDATE
That is why tonight, I’m proud to endorse Doug Hoffman, a Republican, running on the Conservative line for Congress in the 23rd Congressional District.
His endorsement comes on his other recent endorsements from Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, Congressman Todd Tiahrt, Congressman John Linder, Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, Senator Jim DeMint, Dick Armey, and many others.
See author page