The insanity of “approval” polls

It never fails that approval polls for Congress or Obama pops up here in the FA threads. Personally, I don’t put much stock in them myself. The notion that asking 1000 or so people in a nation of over 300,000,000 strikes me as a narrow sampling at best.

But even more baffling are why those that place such faith in polls – perhaps to give themselves a needed confidence boost to justify their own opinions via the “herd” mentality – don’t bother to explain the glaring contradiction in the very polls they love to quote.

And that is… why do these poll responders supposedly overwhelmingly approve of Obama, when they so overwhelmingly *disapprove* of Congressional spending as per the Obama agenda?

Let’s take, for example, the Stimulus… known as it’s official name, The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

For professional consistency in the processes, let’s take a single reputable pollster, Rasmussen Reports, and their Feb 16th analysis of the ARRA.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters nationwide believe the $787-billion stimulus plan passed by Congress will help the economy. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 29% believe the plan will hurt and 24% believe it will have little impact.

When Rasmussen breaks down their numbers, the class of America Obama claims to advocate *for*… middle-income America – are more likely to believe the bill will cause more harm than good. Those that hold the most optimism are household incomes below $40K, or above $100K.

It’s also not surprising… since the stimulus grows more government than the private sector… that 49% of government employees are dancing in the streets with joy. That’s because 50% of the responders believe the bill consists primarily of new government spending… and they are correct.

The private sector is split evenly, and investors are the skeptics vs non-investors.

Needless to say, those celebrating “victory” on the talking head circuits for it’s passage were not middle America, but Congress, their official mouthpieces and WH policy wonks. Public opinion didn’t matter to Congress. Just as the bailout passed last fall, despite a majority of unfavorable public sentiment, Congress and a then candidate Barack Obama took a my-way-or-the-highway attitude. Obama was on record saying “Democrats and Republicans in Washington have agreed on an emergency rescue plan that is our best and only way to prevent an economic catastrophe.”

Well, *some* Republicans anyway. And so much for the “catastrophe” that he, to this day, still holds over the nation’s head.

Now we’re facing Obama’s next spending debacle – HASP… his Homeowners Affordability and Stabilization Act. Again, in the now predictable Obama’esque fashion, the PR rolls out strong *far* in advance of the details. And if it’s anything like the stimulus, Congress considers reading the details in the bill optional.

As I pointed out in my Feb 19th analysis of this proposal, it’s an attempt by Congress and the Obama admin to reinflate the housing bubble by preventing housing prices from falling lower. It’s a financial “affirmative action” plan guaranteed not to cure the problem, but postpone it… and at quite an expense to the public and banking industry.

Since one of our largest problems is over valued assets in default, the taxpayers and banking industry funding massive loan rate buy downs to accommodate for loan modifications does nothing to cure the over valued asset problem. And, in fact, since these buy down are akin to a five year “government ARM”, they still lock distressed homeowners into an overvalued mortgage… preventing any kind of a sale other than a short sale down line. To boot, they force a situation where the interest rates cannot be used to control housing and inflation.

Is the public catching on to this latest spending misstep? With the press that Rick Santelli’s public protest is receiving, as well as the increasing bipartisan outcry of “foul” gaining speed, I’d have to say yes. This despite the WH’s attempt to use the bully pulpit via Press Sec’y Gibbs in denouncing Santelli as one who “doesn’t know what he’s talking about”.

Back to a Rasmussen Reports Feb 23rd report on HASP…

Fifty-five percent (55%) of American adults say the federal government would be rewarding bad behavior by providing mortgage subsidies to financially troubled homeowners. Among investors, 65% hold that view.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that, among all adults, just 32% disagree.

Will this negative public opinion stop Obama and an unstoppable Congress? Unlikely. As they’ve already demonstrated, they believe we… the peons of the nation… don’t know what we are talking about. Despite their rhetoric, they don’t give a flying fart about what we think.

But, back to the original subject at hand… the utter insanity of these polls. On one hand, we are constantly reminded of Obama’s popularity in the polls by the faithful. On the other, we have polls with strong disapproval of Congress, this spending… all of which is doing Obama’s bidding PLUS tagging on their own spending wishes to boot.

How can this be reconciled? That’s like saying you hate Ford pickup trucks, but then brag incessantly about your black, shiny F-150 with the flame paint job.

I suggest it’s an electorate, extremely reluctant to give up the “hope” and euphoria of their dreams. But, as many other authors here have pointed out multiple times, they might be catching on… albeit slowly.

This is indicated in the movement in the Obama approval rating. From Rasmussen’s site, a graph of the Presidential Approval Index since the Inauguration. The “strongly approve” is in green, the “strongly disapprove” is the red.

Note that the “hope” and euphoria reigned supreme on that historic day… with 40% “strongly” approving, and only about 12% “strongly” disapproving.

Also note Obama’s approval for that first week has never been higher…

Instead, there is a jagged “strongly” approval rating, but ever slowly working it’s way down the longer he occupies the Oval Office.

Also notice those that “strongly” disapprove is on a steady increase.

A particularly interesting observation… sometime between Feb 16th and 18th, the “approve” was near or at it’s lowest, and the “disapprove” was near or at it’s highest. Coincidently, that was the time the ARRA – aka the “stimulus” – was passed in both Congressional chambers, and waiting for Obama’s road show to sign the bill against the Denver back drop. (BTW, did anyone ever figure out the carbon footprint for that PR stunt??)

These approval polls, when viewed in snapshots, provide a lot of political BS fodder. Yet when you view the true extremes in reality… i.e. disapproval of this composite omnipotent government spending vs love and adoration for the guy heading up the spending spree … they don’t make sense.

Well, they don’t make sense until you see the increasing disapproval on the rise, and the euphoric approval on the decline.

The American public may be a little slow. Afterall, it’s hard to admit you got snookered, and the man of your dreams is turning out to be a political toad. But at least they are *starting* to notice the warts appearing.

It’s been stated by admirers that Obama is a “skillful politician”. I’ll add to that, he is masterfully staged at every public event. As a past worker in the film/TV biz, this glitz stuff doesn’t carry much weight with me. But apparently, there is only so much time that the more easily influenced public can be blinded by Hollywood political flash.

Eventually they figure out that, no matter how good a Ferrari kit car looks, it’s still a Volkswagon engine under the hood.