My take is this. If McCain can win the same states as Bush did in 2000, he will win. Therefore the battle ground states (IMO) are:
VA
PA
MI
CO
NM
NV
I think the big one will be Colorado….followed by NV.
VA might be an early test.
If, by the end of the night, McCain’s “Bush 2000” scenario is on track, and he takes CO (then NV), Obama will have to run-the-table (CA, OR, WA, HI and AK).
I don’t think He’ll take AK 🙂