Forbes:
Denialism may be too strong a term.[1] But there seem to be a lot of people arguing that Obamacare has little or nothing to do with the rise in part-time employment. Some deny the rise is even happening, while others are content to deny that Obamacare is the culprit. Admittedly, it takes a little detective work, but if we systematically review the available empirical evidence in an even-handed fashion, the conclusion seems inescapable: Obamacare is accelerating a disturbing trend towards “a nation of part-timers.” This is not good news for America.
Why There is Doubt About Obamacare’s Impact on Part-Time Employment
Part-Time Employment for Economic Reasons Surged Due to the Recession. Let me start by conceding that Slate’s Matt Yglesias is quite correct about broad trends in those working part-time involuntarily. That measure surged during the recession and subsequently has declined at an admittedly erratic pace that is not uncommon post-recession. Whether the most recent uptick in this indicator is statistical noise or the start of an Obamacare-induced “surge” may not be obvious for another year. It should be clear that barring another recession (which, unfortunately, some are predicting for 2014), seeing this measure return above 9 million within the next year would be historically anamolous. Should that happen, it would be hard to avoid the conclusion that Obamacare’s employer mandate had something to do with this reversal.
Part-Time Employment Has Grown for Decades. Economist Scott Anderson of the Bank of the West also is correct that in June part-time jobs accounted for 19.5 percent of total employment, “exactly the average share … since January 2009.” He’s right that part-time jobs sometimes surge for a few months, but then the rapid gains have been reversed (in my graph, I calculate the ratio of PT to FT workers, which is slightly different than the percent of total employment accounted for by PT workers, but both measures tell the same story). So again, we cannot be certain that the most recently uptick is statistical noise or a signal of Obamacare’s impact.
Obamacare-Induced Part-Time Employment is Too Trivial to Worry About.Researchers at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) offer a more pernicious argument. Sure, some workers are losing hours of work as employers seek to evade Obamacare, but this impact is too small to worry about. It’s essentially invisible in a statistical sense. I will credit CEPR researchers with having done a well-conceived study. They used Current Population Survey data to compare the first four months of 2013 with the first four months of 2012, examining the numbers and percent of workers who reported working 26-29 hours a week. Their reasoning was that if Obamacare were pushing more employees into part-time status, it would show up as a surge in the number of workers in this work-hour category. They found that only a small number of workers (0.6 percent of the workforce) report working just below the 30-hour per week threshold used to determine eligibility for employer-provided coverage under the Obamacare mandate. Perhaps more surprisingly they found that the number of workers who fall in this category was actually lower in 2013 (852,296) than in 2012 (853,124). Likewise, as a percentage of the workforce, the 2013 figure (0.5968%) was slightly lower (0.6037%) than in 2012. Ergo, no adverse effect of Obamacare.
Proof Positive Obamacare is Accelerating the Move Towards Part-Time Employment
Anecdotal Evidence. But there’s been a tsunami of stories about real-world employers who in fact have shifted to part-time workers precisely to avoid the Obamacare mandate. These include:
And for all the leftists spewing their nonsense about Obamacare reducing insurance costs:
http://savannahnow.com/news/2013-07-31/georgia-requests-emergency-delay-health-exchange#.Ufpf_1OKmdz
Georgia Insurance Commissioner Ralph Hudgens asked U.S. Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius for another 30 days beyond tomorrow’s deadline to approve the health plans submitted by seven insurance companies wanting to do business in the state. He said some rates were 198 percent higher than current plans available in the state. “Georgia consumers cannot afford these massive rate increases,” Hudgens wrote in his letter to her.
Even Sebelius has had to admit that Obamacare is going to raise the cost of health insurance.
http://www.humanevents.com/2013/03/27/hhs-secretary-finally-admits-obamacare-is-raising-insurance-costs/
“These folks will be moving into a really fully insured product for the first time, and so there may be a higher cost associated with getting into that market,” she said. “But we feel pretty strongly that with subsidies available to a lot of that population that they are really going to see much better benefit for the money that they’re spending.”
So where is all the subsidy money coming from? Do you leftists understand how utterly evil this kind of obfuscation and blatant subterfuge is? This marxist administration is raising the cost of health care, but trying to convince people (who don’t pay attention to this vile shell game) that there is some mythical pot of money that will magically pay for health care subsidies for people…because the actual COST of this socialist shibboleth is TOO EXPENSIVE.
The right is bound and determined to blame everything on Obamacare, lol! No, it couldn’t be that the only jobs left in America are mostly part time after the GOP sent jobs overseas, gave massive tax cuts to those who don’t need them and did a record number of filibusters to kill many jobs bill.
Obamacare is working. It’s bringing health care costs down in 11 states. It prevents insurance companies from dropping or deny you coverage you if you get sick forcing you to sell your house to pay for treatment. It allows young adult to remain on their parents polices until they are 26. It has save lives already and when preventive check ups are fully covered it will save millions.
Get used to it. Until we have a single payer system, Obamacare here and it works.
I wonder if any on the left have considered the effect that Obama’s unilateral reduction of full time to 30 hours, has had on those who used to work 40 hours a week, but have had their employment cut to 30 hours or below. With most Americans having tight budgets, this presidential move may have financially ruined a good many. What if you bought a car or house counting on that 38-39 hours (occasionally 40 hours) you were paid before, and then you have your hours and pay reduced by 1/4?