Western Officials Increasingly Pushing “Peace Talks” In Ukraine

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

It seems every day there’s a new bombshell as the Ukrainian project tailspins out of control. The new one making waves is from NBC, which has broached what was already being ‘whispered’ of in closed circles:

 
There were several reports I’ve relayed in the past few weeks which spoke of “secret” ongoing negotiations. For instance, this video of Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen from two weeks when he spilled the beans to the famed Russian pranksters about secret talks:

‼️Danish Foreign Minister Lars Rasmussen said that zelensky is preparing for negotiations with the Russian Federation.

A secret negotiation process is underway on Kiev’s agreement to part with the territories.

“This discussion is taking place among European states, and France plays a leading role in it. I think that at a certain point the President of Ukraine will correct the situation and say that the time has come to start negotiations,” Rasmussen emphasized.‼️

The NBC article begins by confirming this with the admission that European officials have begun ‘quietly’ talking to the Ukrainian government about what exactly the peace talks might entail—this is all according to a “senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.”

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

But most of this news is passé as always. The real nuggets are the small, sometimes indirect, revelations like the following:

Biden administration officials also are worried that Ukraine is running out of forces, while Russia has a seemingly endless supply, officials said. Ukraine is also struggling with recruiting and has recently seen public protests about some of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open-ended conscription requirements.

This is an important one that dovetails with a lot of recent discussions, including that of Zaluzhny’s new article, regarding Ukraine’s very serious demographic and recruitment problems.

One new report even states that Ukraine’s attempted mobilization failed massively, with only 13% of goals reached:

The mobilization that started in Ukraine this summer failed completely. Out of 200 thousand people, only 30 thousand were recruited.

In the Poltava region, the plan was fulfilled by 13%, in the Cheras region-by 11%, in the Chernivtsi region-by 9%, and so on. Zelensky’s office has expanded the draft categories – the Armed Forces of Ukraine now recruit women and disabled people to serve in the rear.

In the test mode, a set of three women’s battalions is launched. To begin with, they will also be used in the rear and if the experiment is considered successful, they will be transferred to the front line in emergency cases.

This is uncorroborated, of course, so we can’t be 100% sure, but it does ring true, given the uptick in footage and reports we’ve seen of new levels of extreme desperation in recruitment; things like Zaluzhny’s planned “combat internship”, huge uptick in women recruited including several new videos showing female commanders leading squads, increased coercion and brutality in the recruitment methods, like checkpoints on roads, recruitment from hospitals, and new digital recruitment that sees people get tracked down via various apps.

Logic dictates that such escalatory tactics would not be seen if it weren’t for a vast shortfall in recruited bodies. Also, recall the numerous videos we’ve seen recently where actual Ukrainian officers, officials, etc., openly vocalize these issues and state that they’re simply “running out of men.

The article goes on to state:

President Joe Biden has been intensely focused on Ukraine’s depleting military forces, according to two people familiar with the matter. 

“Manpower is at the top of the administration’s concerns right now,” one said. The U.S. and its allies can provide Ukraine with weaponry, this person said, “but if they don’t have competent forces to use them it doesn’t do a lot of good”

The fact is, these are all indirect admissions that Ukraine’s losses are far, far greater than they admit. Now it’s accepted to say 100k dead for the AFU, but with the caveat that “Russian dead are 300k.” In reality, this is all cover for a much more unspeakable truth. There wouldn’t be such dire shortages of men, entire officer corps wiped out, if it wasn’t for the fact that Ukraine has in fact suffered hundreds of thousands of losses or more.

Another new shocking statistic states that a whopping 63% of all Ukrainians can now name one close relative or friend who has died in the war. There are likely talented mathematicians that can derive some equation estimates, but when 63% of 20-30 million people know someone close who died in the war, that seems to speak of ungodly losses.

63% of Ukrainians now say they know at least one close relative or friend who have died in the war, with the average number being three.

This is a huge increase from the last survey in February, which found only 17% of Ukrainians reported a loss, while the figure in September of 2022 was just 9%. This firmly suggests the Bakhmut Meat Grinder did its job and that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is going as poorly as previously thought.

Also of note is that deaths are concentrated regionally: 69% in the West, and just 52% in the East. This implies heavier losses from the main bastions of Ukrainian Nationalists. The implications of that are pretty obvious.

Original survey https://archive.ph/Jj9r8

 
Russia’s losses continue to be minor. For instance, one big recent revelation came by way of MediaZona, which revealed that the so-called “heavy losses” in Avdeevka were just as I had thought—completely made up.

In fact, you can see the October losses for Russia are literally the lowest of the entire war:

 
Recall this is a pro-Ukrainian project which would love to exaggerate every loss they can get, so they cannot be accused of propagating some “Kremlin narrative.”

But how can they be so low when we’ve seen so much destroyed Russian armor in Avdeevka? Like I said, most of it was already there from years of battles and Ukraine showed the same few successful hits over and over from countless different angles. That’s all right—both sides do it, Russian sources showed the infamous Leopard column destruction from 50 different angles too; it’s par for the course. But the difference is, in the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” they ran out of armor and switched to meat tactics which resulted in massive losses. In Russia’s case, the environment is far more favorable because they’re not trying to cross dozens of kilometers of open land. Russia’s objectives are a mere 1 or 2 fields away in Avdeevka—like getting to the Coke Plant, or to Stepove, etc.

But getting back to the NBC article.

The next revelation from the article is so groundshaking that I’ll paste it directly from the article so it can’t be said I’m making it up:

 
Well—it’s not groundshaking to those who’ve followed events closely, exactly. Because this is the exact timeline I already reported on many months ago, when officials ‘whispered’ that Ukraine would have to the end of this year. But it’s still an eye-opening revelation given recent developments because it confirms the plan is still on track and wasn’t just some unfounded rumor.

What’s interesting is that this also dovetails with another “bombshell” statement from Arestovich, where he confessed to spewing propaganda to the Ukrainian citizenry in order to keep hope alive. Now, he says, he’s going to stop in order so that Ukraine can survive.

This post, from his official Twitter, was in response to the actual NBC article above, so it’s particularly pertinent:

It is true that a significant share of responsibility for the faith of the average citizen in our quick and beautiful victory lies with me personally.

But I am not running away from this responsibility.

I created the illusion at that time so that we could survive.

Today I am destroying it so that we can survive further.

Many people took offense to the fact that I offered NATO in exchange for territories (although I did not offer territories in exchange, but who reads up to this point).

So I will tell you a little secret, dear readers.

Half a year or two more of such a “successful” policy as we are pursuing now, and we will be able to forget about NATO.

We will be talking only about some “…guarantees without joining”.

It is already going on – see carefully the material of NBC:

And in another year – there will be none of that.

There will be another Minsk agreements – under a new name.

But all of this can be fixed.

Think.

Another layer of added pertinence is the fact that he’s apparently jockeying for the upcoming presidential elections, which the latest reports from Zelensky’s office claim are still tentatively being planned—but more on that afterwards.

Above, he admits to creating “illusions” in order to keep hope alive, but now he must shatter them to give Ukraine a chance at survival. But we were talking about timelines before. Here he states that “half a year or two more” joining NATO can be forgotten. Then a year after that will be a new Minsk.

So according to him, the timeline he foresees is that two years from today is when a new Minsk will be signed. That’s an extremely flattering timeline for Ukraine and the only question is, does he actually think Ukraine will last that long or is he still doing the magician’s act of burying new ‘illusions’ within his feigned dispelling act.

So now, Zelensky has issued a sharp rebuke. Firstly, Zaluzhny has allegedly been ‘censured’ for his own grim article, which I covered last time. The accusation was that it added unneeded demoralization. Now, Zelensky has come out against the latest ‘rumors’ of negotiations.

Some are speculating that Arestovich is whom the U.S. will get behind to displace Zelensky in the upcoming elections. Recall that the Ukrainian March 2024 presidential elections are being saved as a final “get out of jail free card” by the U.S. It’s their chance to yank Zelensky and quickly replace him with a more ‘amenable’ figure, if the situation calls for it

As of now, they’re likely thinking it may soon call for it because Zelensky may be beginning to go off-script in sticking to victory absolutism. Remember that the situation is always complicated and multi-sided. For Zelensky—on one hand the U.S. may want to replace him if he refuses to make peace overtures; but on the other hand, Zelensky has very dangerous nationalist backers who have hung a sword over him, and may outright kill him, should he even think about stopping the war that the nationalists have dreamed of for so long.

If you were in his shoes, what would you fear more? Biden “replacing you” in an election, or Nazi terrorists assassinating you and your family? Therein lies the rub.

But why would the U.S. want him to stop the conflict, you may ask. Doesn’t it serve U.S. interests to keep throwing Ukrainian fodder at Russia forever to weaken Russia as much as possible? Why not keep it going until the AFU is completely exterminated, dealing maximum damage to Russia’s economy, its own manpower resources, etc.?

The answer is this:

If you allow Ukraine to keep fighting in this increasingly diminished state, you risk Russia achieving a decisive, total victory wherein Russia will assume full control over Ukraine, its resources, etc., and will take control of all the sought-after regions like Odessa and Kharkov. This would be an incalculable boost to Russia’s power.

For U.S. planners, it’s much better to cut their losses and freeze this thing at a point where the U.S. can still retain control over a fairly dangerous Ukrainian rump-state that can be parasitized to continue wounding, destabilizing, and fencing in Russia perennially.

Plus, it gives them the chance to massively rearm and refit Ukraine for the future, while stripping it of its assets to enrich Western stakeholders, allowing them to relaunch the war at a future date to continue bleeding Russia.

If Zelensky takes it “all the way” he risks the total capture of Ukraine by Russian forces—all those untold hectares of fertile land earmarked for BlackRock and co., etc. It would be a catastrophe for the West and would signal the rebirth of the Russian Empire, to many extents.

Brzezinski’s famous quote:

 
But back to the NBC article.

The final section asks the question whether Putin would be up for negotiations, for which they have no real answer. In his writeup of the NBC piece, B of MoA believes Russia will agree to peace talks, but only to give the appearance of diplomacy while demanding more than they know Ukraine would ever agree to give:

Russia will likely agree to peace talks. But it probably will demand more than Ukraine is willing to give. At a minimum that is the full control over the five oblast it has annexed, including Crimea, and no NATO relations with Ukraine. The current Ukrainian parliament will probably reject those requests which will then lead to further Russian demands.

The problem when it comes to this big question—which is the biggest one of all—is determining who truly has the final say in Russia.

There are typically two camps: the first believes Putin has monarchical, absolute power and has the final say on all things political or geopolitical. Then there’s the other camp—into which I personally lean—that believes the situation to be far more complex and nuanced than that. Putin’s siloviki and in particular the generals and old guard intelligence carryovers carry major sway, if not the majority sway in this situation.

The fact is, it’s difficult to imagine that this seasoned old guard would allow any compromise, particularly because they have signaled to the contrary ever more vocally. There are old scores for them to settle, and I don’t think they will allow Russia to leave this conflict without receiving its pound of flesh in the form of all required new territories and concessions from Ukraine.

But all that said, it’s still likely too early to call the game. Some are already rejoicing that Russia has ‘won’. I believe Ukraine remains dangerous (not in the sense it can win the war, but rather create unneeded casualties and prolong it) and continues to have enough combat potential to carry it for quite a while longer. That doesn’t mean it’s not possible that a sudden collapse or unexpected change of circumstances can occur. But barring that, particularly if it adopts a very defensive posture, the AFU can still likely hold out for quite a while—at least 1 to 1.5 years.

I’ve explained the reason before, but I’ll verbalize it again in summary: in modern warfare, defending has become in some ways extremely profitable and easy due to the ISR afforded by cheap, ubiquitous surveillance drones. Given that strategic surprise is no longer really possible to obtain, this gives a large compounding effect to the defender’s arsenal, which allows a smaller, weaker force to go much longer than normally would be the case as per ‘classical strategic theory.’

Also, the tools necessary for defense—like ATGMs, mines, shovels for digging fortifications—are precisely those not in short supply in the West; it’s the offensive tools the West is running out of.

Either way, even if Ukraine could hold out for that long, the question is whether Washington will allow it to infringe on the 2024 election cycle. Given that Ukraine’s increasingly deteriorating situation will be like an open sore on the establishment’s side, it’s difficult to believe they’ll allow it to continue into, let’s say, summer of 2024 on the eve of the election.

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