Ed Morrissey:
Can “the Resistance” cure what ails Democrats? The party has gone deeper into the political wilderness than at any time over the past century, but they have engaged — so far, anyway — on an obstructionist and protest spree in order to remain relevant. That has hardened the polarization in Washington DC and around the nation, and that may not produce the results Democrats expect. In fact, as the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake points out, polarization plays into the hands of the GOP:
The reason I say that is because polarization in this country favors Republicans more than Democrats, at least when it comes to Congress. Republicans have something of an inherent advantage in both the House and Senate, and polarization helps reinforce those advantages these days.
Why? There are simply more red states and more red districts. Republicans took over the House and Senate in recent years largely because they knocked off some of the final hangers-on among Democrats in conservative-leaning places. It first happened in the South; then it spread to Appalachia and the Midwest. …
The 2016 election is a good example of this. Trump, as everyone knows, lost the popular vote by two full points, 48-46. But despite that loss, he actually won 230 out of 435 congressional districts, compared to 205 for Hillary Clinton, according to numbers compiled by Daily Kos Elections. And in the Senate, he won 30 out of 50 states.
So basically, 53 percent of House districts are Republican and 60 out of 100 senators hail from red states, according to the 2016 election results (in which the GOP, again, lost the popular vote).
Blake notes that Democrats point to Republican successes in obstructionism over the last eight years and claim it will work for them. Blake’s data makes it clear that, even if the situations were similar, it wouldn’t work out the same way. Democratic political strength is concentrated in cities and coastal states; Republicans have a far broader distribution of political strength. Obstruction and polarization might help Democrats turn out better in their power centers, but it also helps Republicans turn out better, too — and they have a big advantage in that footprint.
That’s not an unreasonable way in which to view the 2016 election outcome, in fact. Both sides wound up with polarizing nominees; Donald Trump railed about Hillary Clinton’s corruption, and Hillary railed about The Donald’s “deplorables.” Hillary won the popular vote by running up the totals in deep-blue California and New York, while Trump cruised to victory by winning 29 states outright and part of Maine for a 306-232 Electoral College victory. At the same time — and this is critical in understanding the nature of the Republican structural advantage — the GOP won 22 of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs despite a significant numerical disadvantage in this cycle. They also won 241 out of 435 House seats despite Hillary’s popular-vote lead and the normally disadvantageous turnout models in presidential elections.
So the Washington Compost worries about the dems playing into the hands of the GOP? Hey eight years of Obama gave us Trump and thats not so bad ecsept for the little collage snowflakes
The advantage they have is an unprecedented gerrymandering in their favor which by the way, is the only reason they were able to take and keep control of the house.
I’m sure Jeff Sessions will play a key role in assisting his party in expanding that as well as expanding voter disenfranchisement.
I remind Curt and Ed that the GOP lost seats in both chambers as well as the WH popular vote by almost 3 million.
While it is indeed an uphill fight for Dems to take back either chamber in 2018, we do have a lying and dishonest con man in the WH who cannot deliver (and never had any intentions to) his promise to workers who put him in that position which is a feather in their hat.
@Ajay42302: It looks like the more the left obstructs, the more independents tend to jump off of the fence on the conservative side. Intelligent people do not want to see riots. Peaceful demonstrations are acceptable. Riots are “people out of control” who disrupt the lives of peaceful people. The fight is up hill because the Dems will not admit that the ideology they are following is faulty.