Ukrainian ‘Offensive’ Enters Phase 2 – Signs Of Ukrainian Collapse Everywhere

by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

Now, I wanted to move onto a new discussion of Ukraine’s ongoing catastrophic losses, in light of some recent new revelations to that account. This will then segue into a few battlefield updates.

Firstly, let’s acknowledge the fact that days ago, after spending a couple weeks doing preparatory work, which included various attempts to strike Russia’s rear and degrade logistics, Ukraine began the official Phase 2 of their offensive. It was even announced by MSM.

NYTimes:

Ukraine has launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive, throwing in thousands of troops held in reserve, many of them Western-trained and equipped, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, hours after Russian officials reported major Ukrainian attacks in the southern Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine has now thrown its 10th Corps into battle, after having previously depleted the 9th Corps in the first phase of the offensive. The first days of the battle are described by some as the single largest armor losses for the AFU since the start of the conflict. They came brazenly into prepared positions, hoping to prove some modicum of success to their Western handlers, but were brutally rebuffed as before.

⚡️⚡️⚡️There were rumors in the Ukrainian lobby that the loss of the Armed Forces of Ukraine after the first 50 days of the summer offensive campaign was over 11,000 soldiers and officers. More than 25,000 people were injured.

Such data is provided by the Ukrainian telegraph channel “Woman with a Scythe”.

In his view, this is still the most positive figure. Many call numbers much worse⚡️⚡️⚡️

👉 An example of this is that, the enemy has lost 81 out of the 185 BMP Bradleys’ which were supplied to them; or 66 out of 145 of the Leopards that were supplied to them. The list could go on and on.

They took a little new territory in Rabotino but as of this writing it was already taken back. Staromayorsk near Velyka Novoselka is the only place Russian forces had to retreat. The artillery war simply destroyed the entire small village, leaving no place to hide, so they were forced to withdraw. However, the good news is, the soldiers themselves say they had little to no losses in doing so. Just listen to the report from this Kaskad Ballation fighter, which includes the revelation that Ukraine was using a chlorine-like chemical weapon in the area as well:

Staromaiorske was the only right decision to leave. After weeks of shelling, there isn’t a single complete house left there. This village can no longer be defended. Because it almost doesn’t exist anymore. Our forces carry out smaller counterattacks, but these do not serve to recapture the village, but to keep the enemy busy and not let him rotate. Yes we have casualties, but enemy casualties in the last few days are really brutal. I’ve already lost count of armored vehicle losses. Not to mention the loss of staff. Luckily there are some UA soldiers surrendering instead of dying these days.

The enemy is trying everything and at all costs to reach the first (!) real line of defense before August. He’s running out of time, slowly but surely. August is coming, and so is the end of summer. Soon there will be a lot of rain again and make offensive actions very difficult. That’s why the Ukies don’t care about the losses at the moment. They (must) achieve significant successes before the end of the summer in order to be promised further western support.

Ukrainian reports that they ‘captured’ Staromayorsk are lies, though. The village is now in a grayzone with both sides incurring with small groups just for positional clashes without establishing control. When Ukrainian forces try to enter, they get hammered with artillery.

On that note, there’s an important aspect I’d like to cover. There has been a lot of talk from pundits about Russia not having enough “counter-battery” capabilities, whether it’s in lack of barrels or lack of CB radars on the front, or the claim that Western artillery is simply superior in range and accuracy to the Russian variety. There are a few reports here and there to give it some credence, but it’s then amplified to absurdity by 6th columnists and schizopatriots to make it seem like Russia is completely overmatched in this regard.

Here’s one account on this topic straight from the front which gives quite the contrary view, sent by a soldier to the respected Russia ‘Two Majors’ military channel:

Our comrade, a front-line soldier, writes to us:

🖋” Briefly about the situation in the Orekhovsky direction in front of Rabotino.

It’s no secret to anyone how heavy fighting is currently going on in this area.

The enemy is trying with all his might to make a breach in this direction in order to get to the Melitopol-Chongar-Dzhankoy highway, but so far without success.

In a couple of days, the enemy lost more than 30 pieces of equipment, not to mention losses in personnel.

▪️I will tell you through the eyes of the artillery of this direction, which is held by one of the best and combat divisions of the army, the howitzer division of the 71st regiment.

From the first days of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Rabotino-Verbovoye sector, this division stood rooted to the spot, not allowing the enemy to pass even a single step, while pointwise breaking any enemy equipment and infantry.

For two months there were a huge number of counter-battery battles with similar enemy guns, in which he did not win a single victory.

The enemy opposed our Msta-b 2a65 with the American M-777 howitzer.

Due to the impossibility of winning the artillery duel, the enemy rolled back their guns to a distance of more than 40 km, using the new Excalibur NATO shells. What makes these guns inaccessible to our Msta-b, with a maximum range of 28 km.

But even here, of course, there was a super solution in the form of our heroic Lancets.

Having destroyed all the enemy’s howitzers in this area, we began to work out the enemy’s equipment.

Speaking today about the situation in this area, the enemy began to use cluster munitions en masse, which did not help him much. Our guns can easily withstand these cassettes without causing much damage.

But the enemy today went even further and began to use American Himars against howitzers, which is actually a problem for any kind of equipment and shelters.

Watching these actions of the enemy, I want to say that these are extreme desperate steps to break through our defenses.

Our guys are in fighting spirit and keep full throttle, and anyone who tries to break through will find refuge among the hundreds of dead and lying in the fields in front of Rabotino of their brothers.”

The letter was handed over: Two majors

So, to summarize. In pure counter-battery battles between Russian frontline 2A65s, 2A36s, etc., against American M777s, they did not lose a single such battle. However, it validated some of the concerns to a degree by describing how the AFU withdrew and began to use guided Excalibur rounds, which have an inbuilt ‘base bleed’ option that expels some propellant out the rear, allowing them to fly much farther, about 40km+.

But the problem is, these shells are $75,000+ or so, and there’s not a lot of them. Secondly, they require precise GPS coordinates and therefore very good ISR of the target, which isn’t always possible. Russia has its own base bleed shells and rocket assisted RAP with over 40km range for the 2A36 howitzers. Russian 2S7M Malkas have a range of nearly 40km unassisted, and nearly 50km with assisted projectiles. And by the way, the Malka is a massive 203mm projectile, exponentially stronger than NATO artillery.

So, no—Ukraine doesn’t have any real artillery advantage. The only advantage is in the ISR capabilities of finding targets, as they have all of NATO’s and the West’s considerable satellite powers at their disposal.

That’s not to say there aren’t problems, yes there’s a shortage of counter-battery systems, but Ukraine certainly doesn’t have an advantage there, as they have their own even worse shortages of every variety.

Now, a little on Ukrainian losses. There have been a few interesting ‘oblique’ reports coming from different sectors of society, which have given us some new insight, like the following:

⚡️⚡️⚡️The terrible truth about Ukraine’s losses

I thought, knowing the Ukrainian language, you can get obituaries through social networks. I put the search on tag words like “dead for Ukraine”, “buried” … I brought it to the programs so that there was a calculation on the Internet. And it quickly became clear that a lot of soldiers are dying in Ukraine. On average, about 400 obituaries per day, – said military expert Ruslan Tatarinov.

– November last year was the peak. There, about 1100 obituaries for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were posted in one day. There were 900 a day… In total I counted 284,000 dead. This was posted a week ago.

– Obituaries are published separately. As a rule, in local media and social networks. They are always visible. And it was enough to merge these sources. Everything is clearly visible.

But how many others are lying in the fields, how many are missing, how many are not identified⚡️⚡️⚡️

Here are two new Ukrainian reports from their own internal channels. The first describes a new AFU assault unit that was destroyed in Klescheyevka, south of Bakhmut/Artyomovsk.

 
And here is another, from the 35th Brigade of the AFU, desperately pleading for help after they were slaughtered in Staromayorsk:

 

 

 
Wallstreet Journal reports that there are upwards of 50,000 servicemen with limbs blown off:

 
In fact, this number is likely much higher as a leak already from last year had it at nearly 60,000, but this is a good confirmation.

A last very interesting oblique account of corporeal losses is the following fascinating report:

🇺🇦🪦DEAD SIM CARDS

Interesting information was published about the number of “dead” SIM cards in Ukraine, which can indicate the level of losses:

🔸At the beginning of the summer, Ukrainian providers estimate their “irreparable losses” at 1.1 million SIM cards.

🔸Until March 2022, there were 1.2 SIM cards per person in Ukraine, you can calculate the rest yourself. These are not those SIM cards that are in roaming, these are phones that are forever silenced.

🔸A representative of one of the operators in Ukraine said, “Since the beginning of July, every week we lose 5.5 thousand SIM cards in the east of the country, other operators have the same numbers.

Now, to the more interesting losses data. I have begun piecing together Ukraine’s likely heavy tank losses, just to see how much longer they can possibly last with the current level of attrition.

This new Sputnik article covers it in detail. But one critical mistake they make is that they misattributed a quote by Ukrainian ground forces commander Volodymyr Karpenko, who says Ukraine lost up to 50% of equipment, to the present day. However, his quote is actually from a June 2022 National Defense interview, which makes it all the more interesting.

 
Here is even a tweet from a pro-Ukrainian account showing the timestamp just to make certain this is in fact an old quote rather than an article from last year which has been stealth updated with a new quote, or something like that.

 
The significance of this can’t be understated. Recall the popular notion often espoused by the likes of Douglas MacGregor and much ballyhooed by Ukrainian supporters, that Ukraine is already on its third army, and Russia has destroyed its entire previous army or armies.

Here we have the Ukrainian ministry of defense admitting in June 2022 that they lost not only 50% of all initial equipment in only 4 months of fighting at that point, but staggeringly, they had lost 400 tanks. Also, as an aside, at that point, Oryx had only listed 116 tank losses for the AFU. This clearly shows the laughable bias in Oryx’s accounting as the official AFU count of their own losses was 4x higher than his.

This is important because Ukraine is said by some sources to have started out with 1,200-1,500 total operable tanks, with another batch mothballed. But some experts believe the operable starting number was much closer to 800. That means we can extrapolate that if Ukraine had already lost 400 tanks by June, in only 4 months of fighting, by the end of 2022 they should have lost somewhere around another 600, which would put them at ~1000 for the year. So if the 800-1200 figure for their starting number of tanks is accurate, they would have completely depleted those by early this year, which in fact confirms the folklorish claim that they had lost their entire starting army.

But let’s crunch the numbers deeper to see what they may have left now, and how much longer they can hold out.

The Sputnik article from above quotes a ‘London-based thinktank’ with the figure that Ukraine started with 720 T-64s and 750 T-72s, with about ~1000+ extra of both mothballed and in storage, of uncertain quality. These can possibly be written off for the reason that Russia likely disabled most repair/refurb facilities and also may have entirely destroyed these storage sites. Sure, Ukraine hides their active stuff well, but you can’t really hide mothballed tanks which can’t really be moved around. Russia would have known the storage sites and destroyed them.

Thus, the low starting figure as I said can be ~800 according to some, with a high of just under 1500.

Next, we know from the ground commander’s own words, they lost 400 of these tanks by June 2022. That’s a rate of 100 per month. If we extrapolate that straight, we can say 1000 total by end of 2022, or to be generous to them, we can estimate lower due to the fact that the end of 2022 had lower intensity due to Russia going on the defensive and becoming inactive while they called up their mobilization.

Furthermore, Ukraine captured a certain amount of Russian tanks, which hypothetically could be around ~200.

Next, how much did the West give them? Here’s a Lost Armour chart showing some figures. The loss figures on top are—I believe—a little out of date, but only by a couple weeks or so. For instance, it shows 6 total Leopards destroyed, which is 25% of the total. However, this seems to be the number from the first phase of the ‘counter-offensive’, as some reports indicate in the new phase which started days ago, they now lost an additional batch of Leopards and a giant new batch of Bradleys. Total Leopard losses may now be something like 15-20 from what I recall.

For now though, look at the deliveries below instead:

 
There is a total of 727 delivered, according to them. The Sputnik article from above has it as follows:

An undisclosed number of T-72M1s from Bulgaria;
More than 170 T-72s of various modifications from the Czech Republic;
31 T-72As from North Macedonia;
over 250 modernized T-72s and 60 PT-91 Twardy tanks from Poland (the Twardy is a modified version of the T-72M1);
28 M-55S tanks from Slovenia (the M-55S is a modification of the Soviet-made T-55 tank)

Which is 539 plus an ‘undisclosed amount’ from Bulgaria which could put it at 600-700 total, which would be in line with the Lost Armour amount.

Now, let’s take it back to the beginning and work through it. They started with a hypothetical 1200-1400 total or even less (I’m being generous by using the higher figure, to play devil’s advocate). They lost 400 of those in the first 4 months of fighting, which can be extrapolated to minimum another 600 by the end of the year at the pace of 100 per month. That would be about 1000 by end of 2022, so we’ll subtract that from 1200-1400 and are left with 200-400 total.

Then they were injected with the above assorted ~700 from Western allies, so they were back up to 900-1100. You might think that by now, there’s just so much guess work there could be no way to close in on the real figure. However, the next data point which confirms the numbers comes only a month or two later.

In early 2023, we had the Pentagon leaks, and one of the pages actually showed the exact number of remaining Ukrainian MBTs (main battle tanks), which according to them was 802. Given that the leaks were, I believe, from February and March, this could have given another 2-3 months of attrition at the same rate of, let’s say, 100 per month. Which means it would have conceivably went from the 900-1100 figure at end of 2022 to the 802 number in the leaks.

Now, we move toward the present. Since then, Ukraine has taken a delivery of a new batch of the latest tanks, this is the Leopards, Challengers, etc. The total for these was only somewhere in the 150-200, as I understand it, as there were only 30+ Leopard 2s, 14 Challengers, some M55s, etc. There are a lot more earmarked, like the Abrams and upcoming Leopard 1A5s, but they haven’t begun arriving yet.

Using the number above we get around ~1000 total by early this year. However, if we continue applying the roughly 100 lost per month throughout the rest of this year to present, we get at least 5 months worth of losses, or a hypothetical ~500 tanks. Minus that from the above ~1000, and basically they could have had around 500 tanks as of last month or so.

But the issue is, since the start of the ‘counter-offensive’, they took massively and disproportionately more tank losses. Shoigu gave a report yesterday:

 
According to the MOD, Ukraine lost 31 tanks just in the last few days. Putin had reported ~160 tank losses around June 16th, two weeks after the start of the offensive, and ~250 tanks in late June. Oryx’s own AFU losses since the start of the offensive is at ~40, but since I had just proved earlier that he undercounts Ukrainian losses by at minimum a factor of 4, we can assume that Russian MOD’s numbers approach accuracy. The Russian MOD’s total loss count for the entire offensive from June 4th to date is 415 tanks.

Ukrainian formations suffered heavy losses during the counteroffensive: 415 tanks were disabled by the Russian Armed Forces, 2/3 of the equipment lost in the battles was western.

Perhaps the number could be exaggerated, but it’s plausible because we know even in moderate intensity combat, Ukraine was averaging at least 100 tanks lost per month. The offensive is now about 2 months old and was of a highly elevated intensity. That means it’s not out of the realm of possibility that their losses were double the rate at 150-200 per month, which would put us at 400 after 2 months.

Finally, given that we had come to the ~500 number earlier, subtracting the new ~400 losses would mean that the AFU would be at an absolutely dire state of only 100 remaining tanks. Even if we give them the benefit of the doubt and say perhaps it’s a bit higher at 200-300 left, this is much less than it sounds given that it represents as little as two weeks’ worth of losses in current high intensity combat levels.

If my numbers are even remotely close then that is disastrous. It would mean the AFU is on the verge of collapse. The reason is, I obviously focused on tank losses alone, but they generally correspond to a similar loss ratio to other systems like APCs, artillery, etc.

If the numbers are close, it is likely why the West is now desperately trying to ram through the German Leopard 1s as fast as possible. They were delayed before, but now the first batch is said to be arriving this month of August, with videos showing a few of them already on the road via HETs from Denmark to Poland:

 
The problem is, the first batch is said to be something very small, like a dozen or less, basically a token number that won’t even make an appreciable dent in stemming the disastrous losses. Not to mention, given that the West has run out of decent armor, these are the oldest Leopard 1s with laughable 105mm barrels which were hardly considered powerful even by 1950s standards.

Now, the U.S. too is desperately trying to expedite some Abrams, but the earlier order has been drastically downgraded to M1A1s rather than M1A2s, not to mention that a likewise tiny token batch is supposed to be sent.

Keep in mind, I could be wrong in my estimates. For instance, the earlier Sputnik article estimated that Ukraine has 1,500 total tanks remaining, which would be wildly off from my number. Granted, I had ignored the considerable reserve stockpiles, and maybe these could have been activated. But for what it’s worth, the Pentagon leaks from earlier this year listed the total reserves as ~400+ tanks, on top of the 802 active ones at the time. Even if they’re capable of utilizing those reserves, they don’t represent a game changing amount but rather another month’s worth of high intensity fighting.

But the truth is, signs of collapse are now everywhere. Take this letter from an American militar instructor:

From a letter from an American military instructor after his trip to Ukraine: “…Even the best Ukrainian brigades that a year ago fought successfully and were determined to defeat Russians, today, differ little from ordinary infantry brigades, which almost do not have heavy weapons and are equipped with all sorts of rabble, which Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices literally grab on the street, like during the centenary war in Europe. carried Ukrainians for these months. personal composition, and some have already changed their combat strength twice. and combat command and control, which themselves do not enter into battles and only control combat actions from well-protected command posts. bicycle because the command of the brigades has lost its sense of responsibility for its soldiers and considers them solely as expendable material for the execution of toy or other task. And it only reinforces the loss. The general mood in the Ukrainian headquarters is despondency and anger. And the faces of those people who planned to storm Seva stopol, have the seal of hopelessness. In frank conversations, many Ukrainian senior officers now more and more often admit that they do not see any prospects for a successful completion wars. The only hope that, oddly enough, but many of them, is hope for a direct intervention in this war. But, again, many people here add that this hope is like faith in Santa Claus.”

Yesterday, we saw unbelievable footage of Colombian mercenaries mutinying against the AFU after being attacked and pepper sprayed by Ukrainian officers:

 

 
Are things truly starting to unravel?

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have at least a month and a half left for active hostilities (then – autumn and thaw), and if during this time Zelensky and his team do not achieve at least some results, they may be cut off from funding and military supplies.

Vostok Battalion commander Khodakovsky also has an insightful take on recent developments along this tack:

Khodakovsky: The opponent behaves as if his time is running out. During the war, we somehow forgot that there is also internal politics in Ukraine, and there is a high probability that Zelensky has already pretty much tired out his Western partners. I have no reason to say that it will be demolished tomorrow. But in general, the picture looks like Zelensky is no longer perceived as an uncontested favorite. Strange alliances have also emerged in Ukraine that were previously impossible to imagine: for example, Kolomoisky has begun to cooperate with some of his traditional opponents in certain sensitive areas….

Any internal changes are possible only when the intensity of passions at the front is reduced to the maximum limit. Zelensky is extremely unprofitable in this situation, and he would not mind playing at canceling the elections, but judging by the fact that his office has now begun active preparations for the political struggle, there will be elections. This suggests the conclusion: the situation is gradually being brought to a truce. Therefore, it is extremely important for Zelensky to enter the election campaign on a military positive, otherwise the military “case” will turn against him. By the way, according to rumors, Zaluzhny refused to join Zelensky’s” party of power”.

In light of what he says about the West possibly tiring of Zelensky, it’s interesting that such headlines appeared today:

 
My immediate thought was that the U.S. is conditioning the public for the possibility that they may have to “take out” Zelensky due to his recalcitrant refusal to enter negotiations later this year, once time has run out and the U.S. has no answers left for Russia’s increasing annihilation of the AFU. I predicted such a possibility months ago in one of my earliest articles where I said that once things had begun to turn ‘terminal’ later this year, Zelensky and his controllers would find themselves at increasing loggerheads to the point that Zelensky likewise would begin threatening his ‘partners’ with some of the dirt he has on them.

The West may find that Zaluzhny is ultimately more amenable to peace talks given that he has previously clashed with Zelensky over AFU losses and repeatedly wanted to put off the offensive until the AFU was properly supplied, as well as withdraw from Bakhmut early this year in order to preserve the lives of his soldiers. But each time, Zelensky chose to sacrifice his men like cannonfodder. In the end, perhaps the West will find a willing dance partner in Zaluzhny for their planned armistice, and Zelensky, being in the way, will have to be summarily ‘removed’.

Interestingly, along this tack came news today that Ukraine is beginning negotiations with the U.S. on those long sought-after ‘security guarantees’:

🇺🇦🇺🇲❗️ Ukraine will start negotiations with the United States on security guarantees next week, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak said.

“These guarantees are valid until Ukraine acquires NATO membership, which is the most reliable guarantee of security,” Yermak said, adding that it was a bilateral document.

The guarantees are “specific and long-term commitments that will ensure Ukraine’s ability to defeat and deter Russian aggression in the future,” Yermak said.

Russian reserve colonel and analyst Anatoly Matvychuk believes this is the start of the process towards peace negotiations and settlement. From the above article:

“Zelensky is ready to conclude a peace treaty, he needs to specify the “price” of this agreement and the red lines beyond which he has the right to go in the context of territorial concessions, ” the expert shared.

Matviychuk believes that the “probing” of the possibility of concluding a peace treaty is beginning. He stressed that at the moment we are only talking about the preliminary conditions of a possible peace agreement. In this regard, the expert believes that the Russian side will not be invited.

And from another source, Matvychuk reportedly stated that Russia and the West are in ‘secret preliminary talks’ about same:

Moscow expert: The West and Russia are already having preliminary discussions about negotiations COLONEL ANATOLY MATVYCHUK: IF MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON AGREE – KIEV WILL NEGOTIATE.

The WEST is discussing with Russia the possibility of dialogue on ending the conflict in Ukraine, but wants Moscow to make financial concessions, said military expert and former intelligence officer and special forces retired colonel Anatoly Matviychuk.

He stated: “Behind the scenes, negotiations are already underway between Russia and the West.” If Moscow and the West reach the necessary agreements, then Ukraine will also be allowed to hold a dialogue with Russia. Matvijchuk is convinced that the difficult concessions of the conflicting parties should be made. He emphasizes that the West is trying to “register Moscow’s defeat” and arrange material benefits for Ukraine.

Take it with a pinch of salt as I do not believe Russia will enter any peace talks, though it’s always a remote possibility, but I’m simply reporting what’s out there, not only what is my opinion.

I’ll post it again but if you’ll recall last week Ukrainian propagandist Dmitry Gordon had stated that his sources tell him the West has given Ukraine until the end of the year to keep any gains they make, then it’s peace talks.

 
I’ll end this section with the following powerful take from another analyst, which summarizes the sentiment succinctly:

Lawyer in the South: The government in Kiev now consists of two types of people: PR people and terrorists. To achieve real success at the front and does not work. Soon 2 months, and the result is unsatisfactory. It was necessary to use the reserves that were planned to be used for the development of the offensive after the breakthrough of the defense.

Therefore, it is necessary to keep your population in good shape, not allowing them to turn sour, feeding them every victory day, even if they are not there. On the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the will to resist on the defensive side, accumulating more and more the effect of “war fatigue”, hoping that society will either start a riot, or, at worst, demand peace, which will also benefit Ukraine and its authorities. True, the Russian authorities regularly spoke about their readiness for negotiations, but when we were ready to go to them, the Ukrainian curators refused to do so.

However, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to kill themselves against the defense of the Russian Armed Forces, then by mid-September there may not be enough forces left even for effective defense. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need time for new recruitment, training, and replenishment of equipment and ammunition losses. They will need a Minsk-3 agreement, figuratively speaking. Respite for a new round.

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