Ukraine’s Prospects Dim as Russian Gains Grow

BY SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

There are several important Russian breakthroughs in Avdeevka, which are now being bitterly confirmed by Ukrainian sources. It’s now without doubt that both sides have gone “all in” and Avdeevka has in fact become the de facto central battlefield to define the latter part of this year.

Before I wasn’t certain whether Avdeevka may just be a ruse or misdirection from Russian command, or perhaps even a ‘testing of the waters’ just to see if it’s worth committing a large force there, sort of how Ugledar was in early 2023. They never meant Ugledar to be a massive “all in” committed operation, unless the early tests proved that Ukrainian defenses there were weak.

But here, it has become clear that Russia has gone all in and will not stop until it’s captured, no matter how stiff the Ukrainian defense is. In short, Avdeevka is set to become the new Mariupol, Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut.

But some have correctly pointed out that there’s actually another, more distant battle which Avdeevka resembles much more closely. That of 2015’s Debaltsevo—famed for its unprecedented defeat of Ukraine’s JFO/ATO troops in what became one of the first big ‘cauldrons’ which placed the term on the map for a new generation of would-be armchair generals and war historians.

 
This February 2015 battle had a closer size to that of Avdeevka and similar smaller troop groupings, compared to the monster groupings that ended up partaking in battles like Bakhmut. The shape and troop dispositions are even similar. Then too, Novorossiyan troops stifled the AFU from cross artillery barrages, inflicting grave losses and forcing a retreat as Novorossiyan forces pushed in from the outskirts with constant squeezing pressure.

 
Similarly, it had one main supply route, the Bakhmut Highway, which led in a northwesterly direction toward Bakhmut, and which Novorossiyan troops similarly began to bring into a pincer and under fire control, forcing the AFU to retreat in panic.

Of course everything is harder now in Avdeevka as there have been many more years of fortifications and unprecedented financial NATO support as well as full societal mobilization giving an endless stream of reserves to replenish losses.

But so far, Russian forces are succeeding in the same maneuver once carried out in Ilovaisk and Debaltsevo: pushing in from both south and north of Avdeevka at the same time to bring the supply route under tighter restriction.

So what are the new advancements?

Firstly and most importantly, there are some key, confirmed advancements from the southern district this time—which truly gives an indication that the jaws are closing. A couple fields were captured about Opytne, but some have it even slightly further than the below visualization:

 

🇷🇺🇺🇦❗️Russian forces are narrowing the ring around Avdeevka.

According to Come and See, the Russian army has again launched an offensive both north and south of the Avdeevsky fortified area in the DPR.

“In the south, Russian units are advancing from Yasinovataya. The enemy is rolling back,” the source noted.

According to him, the forward speed has increased and can be up to 2 km in this direction.

There is also a direct attack on Avdiivka itself. Russian and Ukrainian artillery are in full swing.

The liberation of Avdiivka is important not only strategically but also psychologically. From there, a significant part of the attacks on the civilian population and civilian infrastructure of Donetsk are carried out.

Other sources claim success on the direct southerly and easterly direction. For instance in the ‘Royal Hunt’ fortification, Russian forces are said to have made headway, and in the east Russian forces reportedly have been fighting for the Filtration Station, which is here:

 
On the northern front, several Ukrainian accounts have now dispelled rumors that the Slag Heap is still in the ‘gray zone’ and have confirmed it is not only fully captured by Russian forces, but that the forces are even digging in there with their own positions, which means fire-control weaponry will certainly be brought to bear up there:

 
Some sources continue to state that Russian forces are actively storming the northern part of the Coke Plant, as well as clearing and digging into the area south of the Slag Heap—though this is not yet confirmed:

 

 
It’s important to recall many sources, particularly Rybar of late, tend to jump the gun, so these are still very preliminary bits of info that should be taken with a grain of salt.

At the minimum though, if Russian forces haven’t fully seized that southern part of the Heap, it is very likely to be a full gray zone with no Ukrainian presence there any longer.

⚡️⚡️⚡️☝️Donetsk volunteer Elena Bobkova told UkrainaRU about the importance of control over the garbage heap for the capture of Avdeevka:

First, and most importantly, thanks to this control, our artillery penetrates through the city. Secondly, it is an excellent observation post that allows us to see everything around. Any movement around the city, any transfer of reserves and military units immediately becomes known to us. After that, at the identified points, our men begin to strike.

Third, the control of the waste pile is actually the beginning of the cleanup of the Avdeevsky coking plant, the largest factory of this profile in Europe in terms of area. Of course it is smaller than Azovstal, but the defense of Avdiivka is actually the defense of the coking plant. There is a garrison headquarters and warehouses with used fuel and lubricants.

At night all of Donetsk sees the glow on Avdeevka. It is the Russian air force and artillery that destroy the warehouses. If the defense of the coking plant collapses, the defense of Avdeevka will also collapse.”

If Avdiivka is liberated, the artillery terror to which Yasinovataya, Makeevka and part of Donetsk have been subjected every day for a year and a half will cease⚡️⚡️⚡️

Here’s Rybar’s map at least showing the general directions of advancement, most significantly toward the filtration plant in the southeast and the Opytne direction from the southwest:

 
Julian Ropcke is once again in tatters:

 
Russia is said to be mercilessly pounding Avdeevka, and another recent frontline report confirms that the AFU suffers much higher losses than Russian forces, particularly at the current phase where Russia has shortened the lines and is not currently making huge armored assaults across open stretches of land.

A small glimpse—you can see 6 x Russian Su-25s heading to Avdeevka, a sign of how much simultaneous airpower is being utilized just on this one front:

 
This is followed by many attack helicopters as well, which were reported to have made these shots:

 
The Russian channel Vozhak Z who has been updating from the front writes another detailed post. By the way, it turns out this fighter is actually an award winning Russian writer named Dmitry Fillipov, who volunteered for the SMO.

 

 
Now he fights in the southern quarters of the ‘Royal Hunt’ section of Avdeevka. From today:

DAY SEVENTEEN

There was a thick fog from the very morning and all day. At 50 meters you can no longer see anything. The weather gave us all a break. There was a calm in our area, so unusual that it was a little annoying.

For two weeks in a row, even going to the toilet was an adventure, but then you go out into the street – and there is silence… Only in the north did heavy art continue to work somewhere in the Koksokhim area.

Today was time to think about everything that was happening. Objectively, the situation is such that from the north the railway is in a gray zone. Delivery of BC through it is impossible. The road through Lastochkino is under our fire control.

I think we’ll get them. It is already clear to everyone that we will not stop. This is clear to us. This is clear to the enemy. They still have enough strength, the battle will be difficult, but deep down the crests already know that they will lose Avdeevka. And we know that they will not give up, they will not leave on their own. Therefore, we will encircle them and kill everyone who resists. And they will kill us as much as they can. This is how this war goes.

Do I feel sorry for them? No. They killed and injured my friends, they want to kill me every day. I don’t feel sorry for them. Although, for the most part, the people who stand against us are not rabid Nazis, but ordinary Hataskrayniks who were forcibly driven to slaughter.

But if you look at everything in its entirety, it was they who brought Ukraine to its current state. That same silent majority who don’t care about Bandera, or the Russians, or the USA – as long as their farm, kindergarten, pigs are not touched, as long as they don’t run out of vodka and lard, and at least the grass doesn’t grow.

They didn’t care about the Maidan, about the shelling of Donetsk and Lugansk, about the genocide of the Russian population, about the murders of children, women and the elderly, about Azov’s torture, about language bans, about the split in faith… And then it turned out that they couldn’t sit it out that you have to take a machine gun and die for the interests and goals of NATO.

And then they hated us, with a fierce, terrible hatred. Because their little farmstead world collapsed. Because this war reminds them every day of their cowardice, weakness and silence. And in their anger they blame us for everything, because they are afraid to look in the mirror and ask themselves uncomfortable questions.

And we, of course, will win. We know that. And they know it. And this makes them hate us even more.

My call sign is Leader!

Victory will be ours!

PS. Frequency 149.200, call Volga, you will stay alive. Otherwise, we will come and kill everyone who holds weapons in their hands.

He confirms that the rail is under fire control, and more importantly that the ‘road through Lastochkino’ is also under fire control. This is the one and only main supply route we’ve seen on so many maps now:

 
One analyst has written up a detailed deep dive on those actual supply routes, and what can be expected—I encourage you to read it here.

He highlights the following: orange is the main supply route, while brown are the secondary routes:

 
As you can see, the orange MSR coming from the northern part of Avdeevka toward Lastochkino is the only accessible MSR. This is a paved road which can move much heavier equipment and is not as affected by weather, i.e. sludge and mud.

The brown lines represent small dirt roads which can be used for certain things, but particularly in the wet boggy weather of the present time, they could be impassable.

But one key development I’ve noted is that many of the top Ukrainian accounts are becoming absolutely exasperated and flat out tired of the overly-optimistic pro-Ukrainian cheerleaders, who continue to spout unfounded claims about Russian losses and Ukraine’s ‘easy’ victory in Avdeevka, etc.

Here’s one such long NAFO post, censuring fellow NAFO bots for their constant, exhausting stream of unhelpful positivism. Even big names like AFU reserve officer Tatarigami are sick of it. Here he points to the very real threat of Avdeevka’s MSR being cut:

 
Another NAFO bot points out the significance of Avdeevka, which in his opinion is even higher than that of Bakhmut:

 
This highlights something being echoed by other analysts, like Russell Bentley here:

 
“Avdeevka is a very strategic position—when it falls, the whole Donbass front will shatter like glass.”

The reason I highlight this is because one thing that must be noted is how significant even psychologically Avdeevka’s fall would be at this very crucial time. Recall that, after the hugely failed summer counteroffensive, Zelensky is now on the ropes. Ukrainian support is heavily waning all around the globe, particularly with the Israeli situation heating up. Zelensky’s own support is now heavily waning, as a new survey showed that Ukrainian citizens no longer support him, though they continue to show heavy support for the AFU military in general.

With elections potentially coming up, and with other key inflection points for Ukraine’s support—like the situation in the U.S. House of Reps, and whether new aid will be decided on, etc.—this is all an extremely critical time for Ukraine. Perception management is at its absolute highest and Ukraine cannot risk even the slightest further degradation of its perception.

Another loss will come as a major blow that will demonstrate to Western audiences that it’s no longer worth it to financially support Ukraine because any long-hoped-for victory is simply impossible at this point.

That’s why I believe the fall of Avdeevka could be a major unraveling blow that will dictate the entire next phase of the SMO, potentially to a catastrophic bent for Ukraine in general.

And the Ukrainian leadership recognizes this, which is why there are repeated reports of Zelensky going ‘all out’ in sending reinforcements there. One report said that the Avdeevka garrison is to be immediately ballooned from around 8-10k men to 30k+. That would be entering Bakhmut levels of troop commitments. But the problem is, the AFU is already in a far more perilous situation here than they were in Bakhmut.

The reason is Bakhmut had two solid MSRs, represented in yellow below:

 
With a few more decent secondary routes in green.

And it took Russian forces a long time before they could get reliable fire control on either of those. But Avdeevka with its single reliable MSR is already in a far more troubled state than even Bakhmut was toward its last month, which is why Avdeevka much more closely resembles Debaltseve, which didn’t last long.

I do think Avdeevka can last a lot longer simply owing to the way it’s fortified and undergirded with subterranean structures, but it will still end up turning into a terrible bloodbath for the AFU.

A last frontline report which emphasizes some of these logistical issues, and how Russian logistics lines are far shorter and more manageable:

 
Elsewhere, Russia has been advancing pretty much on every front. This includes taking back territory in Zaporopzhye, such as Verbove and Priyutne just east of there. The only one area where the AFU continues to have some minor success anymore is in the Klescheyevka area south of Bakhmut, particularly in recent days in Andreevka, where they’ve crossed the railroad tracks.

However, this is made up for by Russian counter-advances in the northwest of Bakhmut, Berkhovka area.

Advances were reported in the Kupyansk direction by Ukrainian accounts themselves:

 
Rumors continue to swirl of huge Ukrainian losses in the general Kharkov-Kupyansk region, at least 60-100 dead per day. That may not sound like a lot, but that’s just for that one front. If you add Avdeevka, Rabotino, Bakhmut, and Kherson, it’s likely 300-500 per day once again, at the minimum, if not more.

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