by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
Let’s begin with the biggest news: the AFU has launched a large multi-vectored counterattack on Bakhmut as has been expected for weeks, or even months, now. There are a few key things to clear up right off the bat:
Firstly, the much-ballyhooed ‘retreat’ of Russian units is in fact going exactly as planned, and I have the receipts to prove it. In this Sitrep from March 19, I stated that Russian/Wagner forces had temporarily halted advances in Bakhmut proper in favor of broadening the flanks to create ‘crumple zones’ for the very purpose of having a large buffer area to fall back through for when Ukraine launches their long-awaited counter-assaults. Screenshot from the report:
The point of such crumple zones militarily is to create a large buffer of space that you technically ‘don’t need’ in capturing your objective, but is captured solely for the sake of establishing a layered defense which you can withdraw through to put your advancing enemy through a grinder. How defense typically works is you don’t just sit there on one line and “butt heads” with your enemy til you’re both gored. You preferably lead him back through several layers of increasingly fresher echelons that can put him through the ringer.
For anyone that’s interested, here’s a detailed explanation on how Russian defense in depth works from a respected ex-U.S. Army officer expert: LINK.
So what else do we know about this assault? That elite Ukrainian units, such as Azov and 24th OSHB of Aidar battalion are being sent against weak spots on the flank manned by some form of either mobilized, volunteer, or LPR units. There’s much controversy about claims that Russian units are “running away”, which have stolen headlines for the past several days. These claims are being endorsed and amplified by Prigozhin himself, and one video showing 4-5 troops running across a field.
Let me first say that there is zero evidence thus far that I’ve seen that these flanks and “retreating troops” are Russian army regulars. Every single named unit thus far has turned out to be LPR or ‘volunteer’ forces. For anyone claiming they are Russian army, let’s hear exactly which unit? So far, the so-called ‘retreating’ units have been variously described as 2nd Army Corps (LPR), 3rd Army Corps (new ragtag volunteer brigade), the 72nd (which no one can find in any Russian OOB, only Ukraine appears to have a 72nd brigade), the 374th OMSB, which means separate motorized rifle brigade(Russia had one in WW2 that was disbanded, this appears to now be an LPR unit), and the “4th OMSB” which once again, appears to be LPR:
The 4th OMSB were said to have retreated from the southwest Ivanovskoe direction, while a claimed Russian ‘72nd Brigade’, of which no one can find any information or valid OOB placement on, was said to have retreated from Kleeshchevka area just south of Ivanovskoe. Another ‘9th Motorized Rifle Regiment’ was said to have withdrawn from the forest belt on the road to Chasov Yar. This unit, too, appears sketchy although I’ve found a potential match for a Baltic Fleet unit from the 18th motorized rifle division stationed in Kaliningrad. This is the only one I could find with any semblance of connection to nominal Russian armed forces.
Though it may be a semantic issue, I wanted to clear it up because people are using this to drag the RuAF’s name through the mud, and I have yet to see a single piece of evidence of an actual Russian army regular unit involved.
Now, onto the second thing I want to clear up. Because there have been retreats and losses of buffer territory, the AFU is trying to sell this as a massive rout where Russian forces are being slaughtered and captured. Yes, there have been videos showing a total of maybe 10-15 KIA’s on the Russian side, as well as 5-6 captures. But there’s also videos showing the exact same for the AFU, for instance today’s video of what appears to be at least 10+ captured AFU, and a separate video showing some captured in the Zaporozhye direction as well.
Additionally, the AFU’s own propaganda video shows them taking massive losses during the assault. For instance, the video making the rounds for days where the alleged ‘Russian soldier’ surrenders to an AFU drone shows the soldier walking through a field full of destroyed AFU armor/equipment including corpses next to one of the Turkish MRAPs that can obviously only belong to the AFU:
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Does that look like a successful assault to you? Those are all burned out AFU APC/IFV/IMVs in the no man’s land between the two sides’ trenches. And remember, this is from their own published video.
And yesterday there were other big losses in separate assaults. For instance, AFU attempted to assault Mayorsk and Ozaryanovka at the NW tip of Gorlovka. They were blown away with losses of half a dozen armored vehicles or more, many captured POWs all seen in this video here.
In other directions, Russian-Allied forces successfully stormed AFU positions in several directions, from capturing Kamenka in Avdeevka, to capturing new positions in Spirne (near Seversk) as well as Bilogorovka (also same area). Another more detailed report showing Spirne captures.
Colonel Cassad:
Rozhin:
1. We have minus 5 oporniki [fortifications] near Bogdanovka and Kleshcheyevka.
2. The APU has minus 3 strong points in the Svatovo-Kremennaya direction and 1 more strong point in the Disputable area.
3. 2 oporniki near Mayorsk were returned to our control.
In short, the AFU is clearly taking huge losses in their ‘assaults’, and Russian MOD’s report confirms this, whether exaggerated or not:
Russian Ministry of Defense:
In total, in the Donetsk zone of operations, the total losses of the enemy amounted to about 900 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded. More than 30 armored vehicles, two D-30 howitzers and one L-118 howitzer made in Great Britain were destroyed.”
In fact, Shoigu stated the following of AFU’s losses for the entire past month:
🇷🇺 Full statement made by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu at a conference call with the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation:
– Over the past month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost more than 15 thousand people;
– The number of basic types of weapons purchased under the State Defense Order increased by 2.7 times compared to 2022, and those in high demand – by 7 times;
– The Russian Armed Forces destroyed 8 Ukrainian aircraft, 277 drones, 430 tanks and other armored vehicles, 18 MLRS vehicles in a month;
– Measures have been taken to increase the pace of production of weapons and military equipment for delivery to Russian groupings of troops in special operations;
– The Russian Armed Forces continue to eliminate weapons supplied by the West for the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces;
– The system of interaction between departments for the prompt resolution of issues related to the production and supply of weapons has worked effectively;
– Corporation “Tactical Missile Weapons” continues to create promising, modernized and existing models of weapons.
Of course, some will argue that Russian MOD also claimed thousands of losses during the Kharkov offensives which allowed AFU to recapture huge swaths of territory, so clearly AFU doesn’t care about losses. But what I’m simply stating is that there are objectively large losses being seen, and the narrative that AFU is ‘routing Russian forces’ while suffering no losses is provably wrong. Like I said, just watch the video of the ‘surrendering Russian serviceman’ from which I posted screenshots above, and decide at what cost that one flimsy trench came to the AFU? The trench appears to have 3-4 total Russian casualties including the POW, yet all around it are half a dozen destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles, including AFU corpses strewn about.
With that out of the way, let’s see what they have actually taken:
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Basically, it appears they’ve taken up to the reservoir in the northwest of Bakhmut, with some small sections on the southwest line. Prigozhin now rightfully cries that this gives the AFU a height advantage, as they have secured some heights there which allow them to look down on Bakhmut, but as I reported last time, that’s not much different to the height advantage they already had on the entire western flank of Bakhmut because that whole line is elevated:
I circled in blue the area they appear to have captured adjacent to the south side of the reservoir. This doesn’t even look like a particularly big height compared to the actual red zones they’ve already controlled for a long time all around it. So is Prigozhin exaggerating when he tries to claim that these captured ‘heights’ are disastrous?
One report describes it as follows:
For those who are not good at topography.
Russian Armed Forces units have lost tactical heights and retreated towards the Berkhovsky reservoir, which is in a low-lying area.
The AFU stronghold along the Bakhmut-Chasov Yar route, which was first occupied by the Wagnerians and then lost by the military, was at 190 meters. The bank of the Berkhov reservoir, to which the RF Armed Forces units retreated, was at a height of 110 meters. The total drop is 80 meters.
Thus, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now in a favorable tactical position that allows them to conduct reconnaissance and use any type of weapon effectively.
But Wagner fighters actually inside Bakhmut continued to advance and captured several new blocks, seen in orange below:
⚡️⚡️⚡️Having left the “Knizhka” – the building of the Pedagogical Institute – the Ukrainian militants crossed Tchaikovsky Street to the west.
Now the “musicians” are pushing the enemy out of the “Nest” – a fortified area, a complex of buildings surrounded by Yubileynaya, Chaikovsky and Liberators of Donbass streets
Immediately after the “Nest” near Levanevsky Street, another fortified area begins, which must also be taken by storm.
In parallel with this, the “Orchestra” is moving in the private sector of the western part: there is an advance along the streets of Medvedev, Chernyakhovsky, Tolbukhin⚡️⚡️⚡️
And Prigozhin continues pulling down Shoigu’s pants:
In the translated message above, he invites him to come to Bakhmut. This is after throwing a new fit claiming that Wagner was once more lied to and backstabbed, and that no ammunition is coming their way once again.
So now that we’ve caught up with the assaults, it should be said that this does not mean Russia is in the clear. So far, they’ve fallen back as expected (at least by those who know how military strategy works), but this is not a carte blanche statement to mean that there is no danger, and that Russia has successfully fought everything off.
First of all, it does clearly show the weakness that Russia is utilizing much lesser trained or lesser armed troops on the flanks. It’s unclear exactly because early reports stated the units which “fled” did not even have ATGMs or any anti-tank weapons, which allowed the elite Azov/Aidar groups to crush their trenches with a full-on tank assault. However, in the footage of one of the taken trenches, they appeared well stocked with lots of confirmed Konkurs ATGM canisters, which refutes that narrative. The trenches also had tons of TM-62 mines which flies in the face of claims Russia is not providing them any mines against the assaults:
So it’s clear from the above that much of the current narrative is objectively wrong and disproven by actual facts on the ground, which should give anyone pause from directly swallowing AFU’s or even Prigozhin’s reportage hook, line, and sinker.
But the attacks are worrying in the sense that it shows the AFU retains good intelligence capabilities as they are clearly able to ascertain where the weakest, most ragtag units are stationed and hit them hard.
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Thirdly, it can be argued to be worrying for the fact that, though the AFU used elite Azov units for some of the assaults, which are well-equipped and trained, they still have not utilized their truly elite ‘Western trained and armed’ new brigades that are expected to be utilized in the main offensive still to come. So one could argue that, if Russia’s weaker troops are overrun by these units, then what will happen when the truly elite units armed to the teeth with the top Western armor likewise pinpoint weak spots on Russia’s Zaporozhye line and blitzkrieg them?
Also, some reports indicate only a few battalions of AFU troops were used, and a large force was not pushed through, so this leaves analysts wondering why Russia was not able to resist these advances and plug the gaps with reinforcements. Prigozhin gives some hint to a possible answer when he described the situation on the flanks such that the Wagner and Russian forces have either very poor communication amongst each other, or even that the Russian forces are punished by command for communicating and coordinating with Wagner. Thus, he explains, Wagner fights like ‘a horse with blinders on’, as they can only see directly ‘ahead of them’ in Bakhmut itself, and have no idea who’s even on their flanks. Unfortunately, how much of this is truth and how much is usual Prigozhin exaggeration or provocation is difficult to know for now.
From a Russian correspondent describing the above:
So, he says that the commander of this enigmatic 72nd is a great man who did his job, personally went to the frontline. But squabbles between Wagner and the 72nd is what caused the chaos as Wagner claims they tried to contact the 72nd and were rebuffed and ignored, while the 72nd allegedly accuses Wagner of not reinforcing them. A claim is made that the 72nd has a ‘ban’ on working with Wagner.
How much of this is real? It’s difficult to know, but it certainly appears to give credence to Prigozhin’s many accusations of hostilities between the Russian and Wagner forces.
The ultimate answer to these questions will come once we await the outcome of the current assaults. We have to give it a few days at the least to see if the advances actually stick, or will they run out of steam and get turned back? Depending how far they make it before they’re exhausted, we can then draw proper judgments and conclusions. As we speak, the offensive appears to have petered out. Maybe they’ll renew more attacks, or maybe they already suffered enough losses and expenditures to slink away while licking their wounds for a few glorious hundred meters of empty no man’s land.
One example in regard to this is, there were reports that leaked plans for the main AFU offensive still to come pretty much designated a two week or less period in terms of munitions allotments, etc. That means, the AFU would have 10-14 days max to make all their breakthroughs and gains before the offensive is exhausted and the allocated munitions are all shot through.
Ex-Ukrainian servicemen and now blogger says the following:
Prospects for the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive are questionable, said Ukrainian Armed Forces serviceman Yevgeny Bekrenev, better known as military blogger Artie Green.
In an interview with Ukrlife TV, Green believes that Ukraine has not yet had the experience of inflicting heavy military defeats on the Russian army. And in all cases when Kiev liberated territories, the Russians almost always withdrew their troops, without incurring major losses and preserving the army.
In Kherson, according to him, the main success was not in the liberation of the regional center. And the fact that thanks to the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine caused damage to the Russian army. “This is not how it turned out in the Kharkiv region. We liquidated a little bit there… almost all the personnel left,” he said.
At the same time, according to him, the APU outplayed the Russians strategically, forcing them to retreat from areas that were unprofitable to defend or where the defense was already weak. If the Russian Federation began to actively resist, then moving forward was fraught with heavy losses.
The military man says that the low operational skill of the generals, who need several more years of training according to NATO standards to reach the necessary level, may stand in the way of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. “They often don’t understand what is happening on the battlefield,” Bekrenev said.
In the Donbas, the Ukrainian Armed Forces often attack “enemy positions that are not suppressed” with artillery, which leads to high losses.
According to him, in the Kharkov Offensive of last year, anytime Russian troops actually resisted, the AFU experienced heavy losses. It is likely the same here.
Popular blogger Starshe Edda also stated something interesting:
Older than Edda: “On the eve of large-scale battles, when the consumption of ammunition will again jump to several echelons per day, you can put a memorial candle on the pre-war plans for purchasing ammunition – and from everyone. Multi-year contracts with predictable figures, under which long-term investment projects and loan programs were made up – everything was so predictable for years and years to come.
But these plans, for the most part, did not envisage a real big war of large regular armies. This situation can be called a “non-calculated accident” – almost no one laid down a situation where a week of conflict can devour 20-30-year savings.”
And he’s right, almost no one foresaw how vast the ammunition depletion would be, perhaps not even the Russian MOD, though they likely would have seen it at least better than everyone else. Even the British armed forces are now said to be restructuring into an artillery first force, having seen what it truly takes to win modern wars:
👉👉👉Here’s for all the people claiming that artillery is useless or can’t win wars.
“The head of the British Ministry of Defense intends to reduce the size of the army, despite pressure from high-ranking generals, writes The Times.
According to the newspaper, the British authorities are planning a “rebalancing” to reduce the number of infantry in favor of artillery.
It is logical – why keep your army if Zelensky will supply as many units from Ukraine as necessary to die for the glory of the “White Sahibs”.”
It would appear that UAF is clearly losing this war from the standpoint of attrition. Remember when the dirtbag comic said American sons and daughters would be fighting for UAF? There will be a point when there are simply not enough trained fighting personnel for UAF. At a kill rate of 7 to one, in favor of Russia, it will only be a matter of time before UAF will not be able to have men/women to fight regardless of how many billions of dollars the illegitimate biden wastes of our money.
https://twitter.com/tretter50001/status/1657724597448368129?t=oxt2RQpKNpzakcXsliXg6g&s=19
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1657694420748083204?t=sgqKMKLYBxguqnzuV0K0rw&s=19