As I predicted yesterday, Iowa has really shaken up the GOP primary and demonstrated how weak Romne is. In a true surprise result, Rick Santorum has jumped to the head of the ‘anybody but Romney’ pack and tied the former Massachusetts Governor in the Iowa caucuses:
Romney won 30,015 votes, compared with 30,007 for Santorum, out of 122,255 cast.
Each of the men won 25 percent of the vote and proclaimed victory.
Ron Paul was third, followed by Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman.
That 8 vote winning margin means nothing in this non-binding caucus. What is important is how my predictions from yesterday proved to be accurate:
Whoever wins will win by such a small margin it will be seen as the one who was most popular among all the bad alternatives. It hopefully will not be Romney (Obama-lite)
Absolutely true in the sense we have no clear winner. And a tie is not a win. Romney would be crazy to try and play it as a win (it would show another pol who is deaf to voter concerns). Santorum is the latest to hold the mantle of ‘anybody but Romney’. Gingrich, Perry, Bachman and Cain all played the role. We are truly sifting through the list of bad options to find the least bad.
Romney’s total support (win or lose) will be a third of the combined “anyone but Romney” vote, continuing to illustrate how little support the man has among conservatives.
Again, absolutely true. Romney got 25% of the vote. So did Santorum. But the ‘anybody but Romney’ tally is 75% to Romney’s 25%. 25 is exactly one 3rd of 75%. The head wind against Romney among conservatives (fiscal and social) and tea party/libertarian voters is enormous. It will still be there in South Carolina, and may be building in New Hampshire
The GOP will look like a weak and possibly worthless alternative to Obama
Yep. Santorum, like all the other ‘anybody but Romney’ candidates before him, is weak in a lot of ways. His obsession with gay marriage is his Achilles’ Heal (another politician wanting to use the government to tell us all what to think, what is good or bad, etc). He has little organization and when the lights hit him, he will begin to stumble.
But a new dynamic is going to start up to help him – the drop outs. Perry and Bachman should be close to dropping out this week (Bachman maybe within hours). They know their presence in debates and primaries is only diluting the conservative cause. When they do drop out the anti-establishment conservative masses will probably go to Santorum.
I know, everyone says its Newt, but its clearly not Newt – as shown in Iowa. Newt’s job is to continue to tear down Romney so he can’t grab momentum. He will play the spoiler from 3rd place.
You forgot about the man that finished a close third, and it wasnt newt.
Bergen’s got an op-ed, speculating whether a surprise candidate could yet jump into the race — even Jeb Bush got a mention.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/04/opinion/gergen-gop-campaign/
I personally think that Pawlenty bailed way too soon. He’s probably kicking himself now. Wonder if he might not be able to jump back in. He’s the strongest not Romney candidate that I think could be very acceptable to the GOP base.
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach CA
Unfortunately it was Rommey with 8 more votes. And now McCain the other Flipper has just endorsed his fellow Flopper. I just seen both of them sitting side by side on Hannity. “Birds of a Feather Flock Together”. The spoiler will be Ron Paul if he runs on a third ticket. He could, and can do it easily too. You know he has a ton of resentments at the GOP, and company for always being labeled the black sheep, the odd bird, the wing nut, etc… and never being taken seriously. And he’s got that famous and or infamous base of his plus many new supporters as well. As for Rick S, I would rather see him get the nod any day than Mitt. But than again I am with the crowd that wants anybody but Obama and or Rommy. I have friends now talking about voting for R Paul who had sworn that they would never, ever vote for him. But people are getting desperate, and realizing that Ron Paul on a third ticket may be their only choice in the end. If that choice is there that is.
@ Gary G. Swenchonis:
I’m not voting for Romney or Santorum. And Gingrich is starting to look like Arnold Shwarzenegger when he got sucked out of the dome in Total Recall. If that leaves me with Ron Paul, so be it. The GOP doesn’t seem to be getting the message and it has been sent loud and clear.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim: And they would get on the ballot how? People who speculate about someone jumping in at this point might as well hold up a big sign saying ‘I don’t know how the caucus and primary process works’. The only way such a thing could work at this point would be if the new candidate were to somehow get one of the existing candidates to pledge their delegates (and effectively their ballot position) to them in those states where the ballot was already fixed. And given the amount of effort the leading candidates have put in to the process, I wouldn’t expect any of them to bite on such a proposition, no matter how good a johnny-come-lately candidate suddenly appeared. I mean, Romney effectively already stood down once in order to let McCain get the nomination without a bitter fight. This time he prepared more completely and is highly unlikely to take one for the party a second time.
@Gary G. Swenchonis: I don’t think Paul will run third party. He’s old, and tired, and would prefer not to make enemies in the GOP that could sabotage his son’s career in the years to come. And it’s also clear what the outcome would be (another Obama term).
Of course, he also won’t commit to not doing it, because the threat alone gives him some small leverage.
Curt Would suggest Romney’s close win shows strength in that he barely campaigned,had only a few paid staffers on the ground and was as low as 16% 3 weeks ago.Remember Newt at 30+?
Rick P. is 2012’s Huckabee who actually beat Romney badly in 2008. Like Huck the darling of Iowa’s strong Evangelical Vote.Not alot of bible thumpers in N.H as Huck found out in 2008.
On to S.C where Mac squeeked by Huck who split Evangels with Thompson. Perry may be 2012’s Thompson,splitting right wing vote with Newt(Still favorite to win) and Santorum.
Advantage Romney, who just needs a 3rd to go with Iowa and N.H wins.A continued battle between Newt,Santorum and Perry obviously strengthens MITT.
Meanwhile Ron Paul lurks.
BTW Mitt’s vote total is six fewer than he received in 2008. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Also a weird coincidence to get almost exactly the same number of votes as last time.
Mitt leads SC by 10 in the latest polling. If Perry and Gingrich drop then Santorum is about tied with him (and I suspect that if Santorum and Perry drop then Gingrich has a slight lead… but the pollster didn’t address that scenario).
Looking forward to the back-to-back debates on Saturday and Sunday. Should be a slugfest.