Welp, the Western world woke this morning to news of yet another shocking Israeli military strike that wildly expanded the boundaries of what anybody thought was possible. The New York Times’ live-update thread was headlined, “Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Program, Killing Top Military Officials.” As far as anyone can tell, Israel erased Iran’s entire military chain of command, and made it look easy.
Not only that, but Israel attacked military bases and nuclear sites all across Iran, in multiple waves. In other words, 200 Israeli aircraft struck over 100 targets across a nation the size of Alaska, supposedly defended by one of the largest and most layered air defense systems in the Middle East.
Inexplicably, Iran’s air defenses stayed silent. Not a single Israeli fighter jet was damaged. In response, Iran only managed to launch around 100 drones —a lazy half hour’s action in Ukraine— to no apparent effect. These drones, all downed long before they neared Israel, could easily have been an automatic response, suggesting a total lack of any meaningful military response by Iran.
The only explanation that makes sense for Israel to enjoy clear skies over the entire country is that someone inside Iran somehow pulled the plug on all the country’s air defenses right before the attack. If so, it was another catastrophic security failure by Israel’s enemies.
This story is like a strategic lasagna. Peel off each layer of the strike to reveal another astonishing fact. For example, to get to Iran, the Israelis must have been aided by the Jordanians and allowed to use Saudi Arabian airspace. There’s no way Israel’s 200 jets crossed half of the Middle East without at least tacit approval from its neighbors. That means a whole lot of folks were involved— but Iran obviously had no idea it was coming.
Jordan probably even helped Israel by shooting down Iranian drones. A short, blurry statement from the Jordanians said “it had intercepted a number of missiles and drones that … were likely to fall in Jordanian territory, including populated areas … but did not specify where the drones and missiles came from.” Uh-huh. Obviously, they came from Iran.
But wait, there’s more. For the last 48 hours, social media buzzed with warning signs. The US closed its embassy in Iraq and withdrew personnel, as did other Middle Eastern countries. The air spaces were closed. Telegram hummed with predictions of an imminent Israeli attack. Yet many of Iran’s generals and nuclear scientists were killed by targeted strikes while sleeping in their apartments— in their bedrooms and not in their bunkers.
What on Earth? Even if Iran’s leaders thought all the red flags were probably just a psyop to pressure upcoming nuclear talks (scheduled for Sunday), why would it just stand down? That’s beyond reckless. The reason you have a military is to prepare for attacks just like this one. The Iranian military’s negligence beggars belief.
The Trump Administration said it was aware of the attacks, but the U.S. did not participate. Early this morning, the President posted on Truth Social, begging the Iranians to return to the negotiating table, reminding that he’d tried to warn them, and warning even more was coming:
What Trump meant by “next already planned attacks” was unclear, but this decapitation strike could easily be the preparatory phase of a much larger operation to permanently disable Iran’s nuclear capability. Israel probably will not get another chance to operate like this without Iran’s air defenses. The pressure not to waste the opportunity will be enormous.
Al Jazeera reported this morning that Israeli civilians and Iranians are engaged in panic buying, snatching up supplies to prepare for a longer conflict. Meanwhile, a federal judge in San Francisco issued a temporary injunction late last night ordering Israel not to attack anybody else. (Just kidding.)
We peer dimly through the fog of war, unable to ascertain what comes next, and we pray that cooler heads will prevail.
Masterful.
President Trump (I’ll never get tired of saying that) gave them sixty days to make a deal.
The strikes began on day 61.
I’ll bet the replacement Generals are begging their masters to tone it down.
The old ‘good cop, bad cop’ routine… Works every time!