by Sundance
Remember that fourth quarter GDP result that seemed manipulated? Well, I suspect the record setting trade deficit now being reported for January is an outcome of those pesky fourth quarter trade results being intentionally skewed by the withholding of December 2021 import data.
Additionally, methinks we are likely to get some increased economic clarity about why the White House needed Ukraine to become the big shiny thing with such urgency.
Just like everything else, geopolitical dynamics –especially those surrounding entrenched ideology– are always about the economics. Someone, eventually, always has to pay. Follow the money; there are trillions at stake.
First, keep in mind that missing Port of Los Angeles result from December as you review the import/export details:(REUTERS) […] The goods trade deficit jumped 7.1% to an all-time high of $107.6 billion last month. Imports of goods increased 1.7%, led by food and motor vehicles. There were also large increases in imports of industrial supplies, capital and consumer goods. Imports of other goods, however, tumbled 15.3%.
Exports dropped 1.8%, weighed down by consumer goods, motor vehicles, food and other goods. But exports of capital goods and industrial supplies increased. Trade has been a drag on gross domestic product for six straight quarters. (read more)That missing Port of LA December import data, now being introduced into the month of January, might just be the cause of the “all time high” noted above. I will bet one sustainable rice cake on it.
Next up, inflation.
As we have outlined exhaustively, inflation comes in waves because inflationary costs flow like tides within the overall supply chain. The three stages are Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale).
Inflation on raw materials flows into the pricing, then layers of energy inflation overlap the material and labor costs, and eventually the final product exits with the full weight of higher costs embedded.
Additionally, the payment for goods has terms of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days depending on the sector. Pricing contracts are then reset with each new purchase order. Price increases can sometimes lag in this process depending on whether the retailer needs the proceeds from the ending sales to fill the banking exchange account and pay the supplier.
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(Daily Mail) U.S. inflation will be even worse this year than expected, after the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measurement hit its highest level in 40 years, according to a new report from Goldman Sachs.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 6.1 percent in January from a year ago, the largest annual gain since February 1982, as seen in federal data released Friday.
Goldman Sachs predicts that PCE inflation will remain high throughout the year before dropping to 3.7% by the end of 2022, economists for the Wall Street giant wrote in a client report Sunday (more)
CTH has continued to stick with the models that have proven accurate. We see inflation on highly consumable goods getting another wave in the spring of this year. It looks like by Memorial Day that wave will end, and food inflation will level off. There will be a period of pricing stability in the summer until the 2022 harvest season cycles. At that point, we should see the newest field costs showing up in the end harvest price.
The price of gasoline is a big variable. Current trends put the price of unleaded regular gasoline in the $6 to $7/gal range toward the end of this year. This issue makes estimations on downstream inflation more challenging.
A complete manufactured crisis/condition. None of this is related to the Ukraine issue. biden to give a talk tonight about selling six to seven dollar a gallon gas by years end.
03/11/2020 gas was $42 a barrel. One year later over $90, now well over $100. biden the jackass has taken us from energy independent to energy dependent.
The inflation will eclipse anything jimmy carter had. Recession just around the corner.
Early voting in Texas has Republicans destroying democrats statewide except for a dem district in the rio grands area.
Hispanics voting heavily for republicans. oops, guess they shot their wad on having the demographics change for a voting constituency. Hurry, close the border.
The Republican primary was interesting; each candidate was trying to out-“I support Trump, Trump supports me” the other candidate. No one is running from Trump and the longer idiot Biden carries out his idiot polices, the stronger Trump and an association to Trump becomes. Hell, even Jeb Bush’s son, running for AG, pledges to “finish Trump’s wall”.
Keep up the good work, idiot Biden. You are the best ally the Republicans could possibly hope for.
Seems whenever a report is going to show the extent of idiot Biden’s failure and incompetence, it gets “not released”. Like the CBP report on border encounters, for instance. Of course, they don’t have to worry about a nosy media bugging them about it.
Projections are assuming things remain as they are, but idiot Biden says he believes the way out of this inflationary death spiral is to spend trillions more dollars that we don’t have, the very thing that fueled inflation to begin with (that and idiot Biden’s too-stupid-to-believe energy policies).