Supposedly Team Paul is engaged in “initial discussions” with Santorum and Gingrich too, but c’mon. Newt’s chances at the nomination are only slightly higher than Paul’s are and Santorum’s hawkish social conservatism makes him a total nonstarter for libertarians. Just today, Reason editor Matt Welch published a column shivering at the thought that Team Sweater Vest might be back for another try in 2016. Romney’s the only game in town for the rEVOLution, just as he’s beensince the debates started. (According to Time, one of Romney’s allies joked that Paul is their “deputy campaign manager.”)
This is the right time for a deal too. After Santorum’s southern sweep last night and with a new moment of truth looming in Illinois next week, Mitt could really use one of the few endorsements left on the landscape that would actually move votes. If Paul waits and Mitt wins Illinois and then starts to defeat Santorum consistently, his delegates become less important and his bargaining power shrinks accordingly.
Even as they tamp down rumors of a pact, Paul’s advisers concede that the friendship between Paul and Romney is the initial step toward a deal. And behind the scenes, discussions between the two campaigns — as well as initial discussions with the Santorum and Gingrich camps, according to one Paul adviser — are slowly taking shape.
An alliance could benefit both camps. Paul’s support would go a long way toward helping Romney with a bloc of young Republicans who have been turning out in huge numbers for Paul and who otherwise might stay home in November. It might also help Romney grab all of Paul’s delegates. Such an arrangement would help Paul get what a Romney ally called “an important speaking role at the convention.”…
Aides say if Paul can’t win the nomination, four legislative priorities would top the Texas Representative’s wish list: deep spending cuts that lead to a balanced budget; the restoration of civil liberties; a commitment to reclaim the legislative branch’s right to declare war, which it abdicated to the executive branch in recent decades; and reforms that shore up the U.S. monetary system, such an audit of the Federal Reserve or competing-currency legislation. The Texas Representative might also be enticed, says campaign chairman Jesse Benton, by the prospect of serving as a presidential adviser, a Cabinet position for someone in his orbit or “perhaps a vice presidency.”
Not for himself, but rather his son.
The only way Rand’s ending up on the ticket is if it looks like tea partiers might boycott November en masse, and no one believes that or else Romney wouldn’t dare say things like this. But he can certainly deliver a plum speaking gig for Paul at the convention and probably a Fed audit and maybe a commitment to the War Powers Act, although presidents tend not to cede power once they have it. (Right, Barack?)
A number of Ron Paul supporters are young anti-war Democrats who are unhappy with Obama. I am not sure they will accept any other GOP candidate as an alternative to Paul. Semper Fi!
There are plenty of Paul supporters who wouldn’t be on board with a deal, but obviously Romney doesn’t need all of them. I’m curious why *Romney* wants to deal, though. He can win the nomination without Paul, Paul isn’t running third party, and it’s not clear to me that Paul can actually deliver many more of his supporters than would naturally support Romney over Obama anyway.
I suppose that if a deal is announced early enough it will really kill the other guys’ chances and potentially save Romney millions of dollars that he needs to fight Obama… and knowing Romney, he’d be happy to have some cover for unpopular fiscally conservative positions (‘I don’t really *want* to cut Medicare, it’s just part of my agreement with that skinflint Ron Paul…’).
Interesting note from one of the Missouri caucuses today. Santorum won the primary handily, but it was a beauty contest – the delegates get assigned via a multistage caucus process. Today in caucus at Franklin County, Missouri, Santorum’s supporters showed up with a plurality – it was about 40/30/30 Santorum/Paul/Romney, apparently.
So… Paul’s and Romney’s people teamed up to vote for a combined slate of delegates. Of the 40 delegates that go to the congressional district convention, 26 are Paul’s and 14 are Romney’s.
Not all that unusual, actually. Similar stuff happened in WVa and Louisiana in 2008.
Anyway, the takeaway is that Santorum is not going to get a lot of the delegates that the media imputes to him. He won Iowa and Minnesota, but may well get hosed in similar fashion in both of those states as well.