Capt. Seth Keshel
While seven states are likely to decide the 2024 Presidential quasi-election, the blue-collar states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan that put Donald Trump over the top in 2016 (and should have kept him there in 2020) are collectively referred to in election-speak as the “Big 3.” Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is the biggest, and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) is the smallest but most winnable of the trio for a variety of factors.
Michigan, the middle sibling worth 15 electoral votes, will be the hardest of the three for Trump to secure by far, and arriving at this conclusion is about as simple of an exercise as it is for me to tell you that Idaho is going to vote for Trump this year. Before you get too deep in this article, take a look at The Michigan Files repository I set up earlier this month, which has all the data you can fit between your ears and plenty of the supporting documentation behind my assessment.
Those who can understand coalition shifts, which in the case of Michigan means hundreds of thousands of white non-college voters switching from Obama to Trump in a four-year span, recognize the rip current working against the Democrats organically for over a decade. Michigan managed to do pull this trend from Obama’s high point in 2008:
· Obama ’08 – +16.4%, +823,275 votes
· Obama ’12 – +9.5%, +449,314 votes (shift 6.9% Republican)
· Trump ’16 – +0.2%, +10,704 votes (shift 9.7% Republican, trend 16.6% Republican in two cycles)
Trump pulled off that flip with a gain of just 164,287 net new votes over Romney’s total, and benefitted from a second straight massive Democrat die-off, all before I bring us to the first of three points that justifies why Michigan is the worst off of the Big 3:
I. Inherent Election Corruption
In 2020, Trump didn’t just match his increase over Romney – he obliterated it, gaining 370,029 votes over his own previous vote total, besting his own increase from 2016 2.25 times over. In 2016, Clinton, due to the death of the white, blue-collar Democrat demographic, was 598,841 votes below Obama’s high-water mark just eight years later, and Trump’s massive 2020 gain in a state losing Electoral College strength spelled a continuation of the trend laid out above. In fact, I had the number at 8.5% Trump, which when thrown off by roughly 11.1%, accounts for an estimate of 576,443 likely fictious or otherwise fraudulent Biden votes.
The media want you to forget about the blatant obfuscation of the counting process at Detroit’s TCF Center, and lest you think the problem is contained that that festering cesspool, look across the state to Muskegon County where a massive voter registration fraud ring was busted, although the useless law enforcement brass in Michigan sat on the info for years so as not to inhibit Biden’s coronation. If it’s happening in a mid-sized county like Muskegon, what should we think about Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, Macomb, Kent, Ottawa, and other significant counties being used to prop up a dying political coalition?
Michigan, a state full of funny accents, potholed roads, rusted factories, and beautiful lakeshore, is often overlooked due to the sheer scale of corruption just down the road in Chicago, and on the coasts on both sides of the Great Lake States in places like New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. Rest assured, however, that Michigan is a Darkhorse Hall of Fame candidate for pound-for-pound political corruption, and it extends with ease into their electoral equation in a systemic fashion…
II. Deliberate Sabotage of the Voter Roll
California and Oregon (surprise) were the first two states to move toward Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) in 2015. Once Trump shocked the world in 2016, the political establishment recognized the alarming growth of his coalition and realized they didn’t have enough registrations to keep him from a second term, or for preventing others with a similar mindset from finding themselves in power. This accelerated the process for states (mostly all blue or competitive states) enshrining it, and by the time the 2020 race rolled around, 20 states were operating AVR. Trump lost 18 of them, by a tally of 243 electoral votes to 9.
Michigan got the ball rolling in 2018, implemented AVR in 2019, and were off to the races. The Obama 2008 surge energized the Democrat base in Michigan, including the traditional working-class coalition, and got brand new young and minority voters out to the polls. The net change to the roll between the 2004 and 2008 elections was 306,717 net new registrations. Obama collapsed with the working class in his first term, and the change between 2008 and 2012 was a net loss of 16,211 registrations. The rolls increased by 59,502 for the 2016 race between Trump and Clinton, but as the reader can discern, the same voters that always vote voted in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections, and Michigan’s political overlords didn’t like that trend.
Then came the 547,460 net new registrations for the 2020 quasi-election. It took less than two years to put the roll on steroids thanks to AVR and the aforementioned registration fraud rings, of which we have no idea how many are operating in the state. My Saturday Substack post, which was a to-do that I think you should all follow up on, highlights the blatant illegality taking place with the ongoing use of Michigan’s voter roll, which boasts 83.5% of the entire state population registered, which is miraculous, since only about 77.9% of any state’s population is over the age of 18 and therefore eligible to vote, provided they are citizens and haven’t forfeited the right to do so. Read that post for the full details, but long story short, Michigan has well over 2 million more registered voters than they should have and makes Pennsylvania look like the patron saint of fair elections by comparison.
Pennsylvania’s blowhard Democrat governor, Josh Shapiro, read the tea leaves and declared Automatic Voter Registration in the Keystone State by executive fiat last September, and it is my hope that like Georgia’s move in 2016, it won’t have enough momentum to make the state unwinnable for Trump this fall. In fact, Pennsylvania’s share of population registered lags Michigan’s by more than 15%, and Wisconsin lags it by 25%. Wayne County, home to Detroit and the surrounding area, continues to climb with registered voters, possessing over 400,000 more than they should likely have registered, while Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, with similar population loss, craters in registrations accordingly.
And if Trump surges enough, and a tough call needs to be made, Michigan will rely on…
III. The Three Witches of the Midwest
Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson are perhaps the most depraved group of statewide elected officials in any state. To their credit, they rule as they said they would, meaning with an iron fist, give out special privileges to family while their subjects groan for freedom, get shitfaced at college football games, prosecute senior citizens for opposing fake elections, and preside over blatantly fraudulent systems to ensure they never lose power.
To further complicate the situation, the Michigan Republican Party is littered with Betsy DeVos hacks who can’t understand why the state flipped to Trump in the first place, which is why they trotted out delicate Tudor Dixon, unwilling to talk about election fraud, to face Whitmer, who consumed her like a honey badger would, ripped her hair out, and sent her fleeing to the latest Conservative, Inc., podcast, when there were several good candidates to pick from in the gubernatorial primary who weren’t owned by some of the biggest dollars attached to the Republican grift and were willing to call it like it is.
Michigan’s race will absolutely be close, and if Trump pulls a few surprises out of his sleeve with the black and Arab vote, as some believe is ready to happen, then these state leaders, especially the top executive, will be on the hot spot and on standby to give the order.
Conclusion
· Michigan would go to Trump by more than 10% in a fair 2024 election against Kamala Harris.
· Automatic Voter Registration marks the end of fair elections in any state. Michigan maintains the ability to insert more than a half-million fraudulent ballots and still have the official turnout (votes/registrations) under 70% thanks to the bloating of the roll.
· 66 of 83 counties are Crimson Trump counties, which are certain to produce a larger margin for him in 2024 than he had in 2020. What happens in the other 17, especially Wayne, Oakland, Washtenaw, and Macomb Counties, will dictate the outcome of the race. Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell.
So, business as usual: cheating.
The Wolverine State needs a total cleaning up its a Democrat Mess