Philip Bump:
I hate to be the one to tell you this, since you’ve been so patient for the month-and-a-half that people have already been voting and because you, like any sane person, have only a limited capacity to care that much about the daily intricacies of what’s happening in American politics. But tell you I must, because it is important that you be Informed and that you not be Deluded into thinking that this thing is almost Done.
It is very likely — very likely — that neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will secure half of the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination until the very last day of the election. And this is the part that I’m reticent to share: That last day is in June.
June 7, specifically — just less than a year after Trump (then averaging about 4 percent in the polls) rode down the goldish escalator at Trump Tower and started complaining about Mexico. On June 7, more than 350 days after that announcement, voters will go to the polls in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota — but people will only be paying attention to the fifth state that’s voting, California. In California, 172 delegates will be at stake, nearly 14 percent of what a candidate needs in order to gain a majority. And just to make things dramatic, nearly all of those 172 delegates will be distributed to the winners of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts.
Meaning that when polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern on June 7, we will likely be tracking 53 individual elections in order to figure out if Trump or Cruz hit the 1,237 mark. So that’s something to look forward to.
Understandably, this is hard to game out. There hasn’t been much polling in California, and it’s extremely expensive to take the temperature of voters in each of those areas. But, thanks to recent polling from SmithJohnson Research in Sacramento, we can at least get a feel for the lay of the land.
SmithJohnson surveyed Californians twice earlier this month, curious about how Trump was perceived in the state. The answer is: Not well, with Trump’s net favorability at -42. Among Republicans he did a bit better, at +10. Among Hispanics? Negative-63. Which is low.
The firm also looked at who Republicans planned to support in the primary. A lot of respondents hadn’t made up their minds, but Trump held a slight lead.
Among Hispanics, the field was led by Marco Rubio, followed by Ted Cruz — suggesting that Cruz could gain in the state from Rubio’s departure.
Ah…..
too bad, by the 10th of any month I have hit my limit of Wa Po articles allowed.
But I was able to link to the two latest CA polls.
March 9-10 poll by Landslide/NSON has
Trump 38%
Cruz 22%
Kasich 20%
Rubio 10%
More here:
http://capoliticalreviewcom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/16-CA-GOP-Presidential-Primary-Poll-March.pdf
Earlier was the Smith Johnson Research poll which covered March 7-9th.
Trump 25%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 15%
http://theagency.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Survey_March_10_CA_Poll.pdf
More CA polls (old ones) here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html#polls
In CA shenanegans run rampant.
People cross over to mess with the oppositions’ totals.
They vote for the most likely to lose in the oppo party.
Years ago, I had gone to a LB CA polling place only to be told I had already voted.
So had nearly everyone by 10 AM that Tuesday.
Not a glitch, more of a cheater some where.
We got is all sorted out but what a mess!
If the media would start telling the truth about Trump, his numbers among Hispanics would probably rise. Illegal immigration hurts Hispanic American citizens worse than it hurts any other demographic.
@Nanny G: The home of silicon valley, you already voted, no voter ID required and electronic voting machines. Some states are just rife with voter fraud.
Petercat: The media is controlled by only 6 corps so we get only that view in the “news” We get their truth. No truth checks for the internet anyone can post anything so we get memes.
Its a wonderful place if you are looking for conspiracy theories,
rumors and shopping.
I’m picking longshot Kasich to win Calfornia
@Petercat: In a way Mr Petercat, the media is telling the truth about Trump. All you have to do is read what they say and believe the opposite and you’ll usually have the truth. Just watching the protesters in NYC and Maricopa County Az and they are making the case very clearly as to why everyone should vote for Trump. These people apparently feel that if they don’t like a candidate that no one else has a right to listen to that candidate. That’s not what the Marines fought for in Viet nam or the Halls of Montezuma or the shores of Tripoli. There they fought for the right to free speech in this country and for everyone to have the freedom to make political speech’s and for the freedom to attend those political speech’s. I guess these people would rather the Marines had lost those battles Right Wheeler?
@Richard Wheeler: Kasich is not considered a long shot in Ca. He’s considered a no shot.
@Redteam: @Redteam: I totally agree –Trump has every right to say what he wants—peaceful protesters as well.
We’ll see what the voters decide.
“no shot Kasich” that’s what you said in Ohio.
Semper Fi
@Redteam: #5
Exactly right. All of this anti-Trump garbage is not about undermining Trump.
The nasty name calling, the shrill crying, all are ways for the Trump haters to satisfy themselves that they are smarter and more moral than the rest of us.
It’s not about winning, it’s about weak people telling themselves that they’re strong.
As I’ve said before, I’ve read every book that Trump’s written, I’ve watched every video I can find of both Trump and Cruz, I’ve educated myself about the issues, the other candidates, the state of the nation, and history. But because I support Trump, one self-satisfied little keyboard commando called me “low information”.
And then said that they wouldn’t read any of Trumps books, because they already knew what was in them.
Without reading them.
Because someone in the innernetz told them.
But I’m low information?
I don’t remember who it was, they’re just a minor blip on the ol’ radar, but it demonstrates that some people will say anything that makes them feel superior.
And for them, that’s what this is all about.
As for Kasich…
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/03/18/fake-nice-guy-john-kasich-jerk-cop-reason-video/
Anybody who would treat a cop like that, then lie about it later, I can not support.
Another “conservative” lies about Trump supporters:
http://theresurgent.com/trump-voters-begin-arguing-against-their-data/
Two explaining why people support Trump:
https://ricochet.com/an-open-letter-to-the-conservative-media-explaining-why-i-have-left-the-movement/
http://theresurgent.com/trump-voters-begin-arguing-against-their-data/
@Petercat:
Words. that’s what’s in most books.
Yes, the protestors just want to feel good about themselves. They are not smart enough to realize that their shenanigans will only increase the vote for Trump. The protesters have very few supporters. No one likes whiners.
@Richard Wheeler:
who woke up your vivid imagination again? Kasich has no shot anywhere, he needs over 100% of the remaining delegates. So even if he gets 100% of the vote, he still falls short. You think he will win any other states. I’ll go with NO.
@Richard Wheeler: Well, RW, tell us what Kasich was doing during the Viet Nam war? He one of those guys you support because of his military record? Seems he was military age during the war, don’t tell me he’s a dodger and you support him.
@kitt: they even have non citizens voting in Ca. I’d like to see all the non citizens vote a huge tax increase for the legal citizens to support only the illegals. Wonder why the citizens of Ca have no respect for the US Constitution and allow illegals to vote?
Problem is Californians are fleeing their state moving out to lower taxing communities. They bring with them the very voting practices that ruined where they left, like an infection.
If past is prelude:
According to CNN entrance polls, among Latino Republican voters in the Silver State,
John Kasich got 4 percent,
Ted Cruz 18 percent,
and Marco Rubio 29 percent.
Trump got an astounding 44 percent.
Trump has a theory.
He thinks that Hispanics know that he will create jobs and that many of these jobs will go to Hispanics.
@Nanny G: That’s about what the polls in Ca are showing also. Looks like a blowout.