Paul Mirengoff @ Powerline:
I agree with John’s statement that America isn’t a center-right country. I’ve said this on Power Line and in other public settings, sometimes to derision. We are a center-center country, with the center drifting slowly but perceptibly to the left.
However, I disagree with the view that this election represents an unambiguous mandate for more government and “free stuff.” If that’s what the electorate wanted, it wouldn’t have voted in a House that won’t give them these things.
I agree with John that, with the way the culture is trending, the future favors more government and “free stuff.” But harsh economic realities may stand firmly in the way.
The worst part about last night is that America elected a president who, in my opinion, doesn’t care about dealing seriously with these harsh economic realities. He cares about creating a transformative legacy — one that consists essentially of more government and free stuff for certain groups, along European lines. Obama didn’t get himself elected to preside over cuts that would be inconsistent with such a legacy (i.e., cuts to things other than our defense). He’ll leave that to his successors.
By contrast, Mitt Romney’s legacy likely would have been a serious attempt to deal with the harsh economic realities that are about to smack us in the face. Unlike Obama, he regarded such an attempt as the good fight, and more than reason enough to become president. But Romney won’t have that opportunity. Considering the difficulties it would have entailed, he shouldn’t curse his luck too much.
Note, however, that Obama didn’t campaign as someone who is unconcerned with debt; nor did he campaign on a transformative platform. Instead, he campaigned on a program of dealing with the debt by taxing the rich. Once it becomes clear to Americans that we can’t solve the debt problem this way, he will be left high and dry. That’s fine with him, but it won’t be fine for his Party.
In any case, this election shouldn’t be read as a mandate to expand the government and hand out free stuff. And when Obama tries to accomplish these things, resistance will be fierce.
Here’s a really fun graphic. Shows the accuracy of pundits and forecasters:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/11/pundit_scorecard_checking_pundits_predictions_against_the_actual_results.html
Move your cursor over the darts to see which pundit made which prediction.
Conclusions:
All those conservative complaints about partisan Democratic pollsters and pundits inflating Obama’s win probabilities were completely unfounded.
For 2016, the GOP needs better pollsters. The Democrats had a huge advantage; they were flying through the election fog with good flight instruments. The GOP couldn’t see where it was going.
And how about the favored conservative pollster?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/11/07/scott_rasmussen_explains_why_his_polls_didn_t_forsee_an_obama_win.html
This is also quite good: feature by feature comparison of John Kerry and Mitt Romney.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mitt-romney-the-republican-john-kerry-2012-11?op=1
– Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach CA
It goes to show that the demographics has shrunk for the Republican Party. And if they don’t change their John Birch style of politics, it’s going to shrink further next time.
@Larry – can you create a chart for the predictions made by the pundits on here? lol
Most of the world has breathed a sigh of relief that Obama won:D
Amazing that the Republicans couldn’t beat a President who has been disappointing in terms of the major issue – the American economy, the high unemployment, gas prices etc.
However the Republicans aren’t fit for office – if they continue to focus on outdated social conservatism, tax cuts for the rich and unpleasant hysterical slurs than Obama is an atheist, african, muslim and/or communist. If only they could focus on fiscal conservatism – balancing budgets.
@openid.aol.com/runnswim: The bulk of the pundits were off to some extent or another on both sides with the biggest blunders coming from the ‘R’ side. I actually sent Morris a tweet telling him that he blew it big time and now has as much credibility with me as Obama which is ZERO. The one election “theory” that proved right was that the President’s approval rating is the best indicator of the percentage of the popular vote he will receive. The last approval rating for Obama was 50-51% based on Rasmussen and Gallup which is almost identical to what he received in the popular vote based on what I last saw. I have heard a few complaints about voter turn out being lower than what it was in ’08, but even with a higher turn out, the popular vote results would have been very close to a 51-49 split.