by Pepe Escobar
In the Great Power competition, everything is connected: Uncertain negotiations between Russia and NATO over Ukraine may be impacted by Turkiye’s post-election pivot and Syria’s return to the Arab League…
West Asia is a region that is currently experiencing a great deal of geopolitical activity. Recent diplomatic efforts, initiated by Russia and overseen by China, secured a long-elusive Iranian and Saudi Arabian rapprochement, while Syria’s return to the Arab League has been welcomed with great fanfare. The diplomatic flurry signals a shift away from the Imperial “Divide and Rule” tactics that have been used for decades to create national, tribal, and sectarian rifts throughout this strategic region.
The proxy war in Syria, backed by the Empire and its terror outfits – including the occupation of resource-rich territories and mass theft of Syrian oil – continues to rage on despite Damascus having gained the upper hand. That advantage, weakened in recent years by a barrage of western economic killer sanctions, is now growing exponentially: the Syrian state was further bolstered by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s recent official visit – pledging to expand bilateral ties – on the eve of Syria’s return to the Arab League.
“Assad must go” – a meme straight out of collective western hubris – in the end, did not go. Imperial threats notwithstanding, those Arab states that had sought to isolate the Syrian president came back to praise him all over again, led by Moscow and Tehran.
Syria is extensively discussed in informed circles in Moscow. There’s a sort of consensus that Russia, now concentrated in the “all or nothing” proxy war against NATO, will not currently be able to impose a Syrian peace solution, but that doesn’t preclude the Saudis, Iranians, and Turks fronting a Russian-led deal.
Had it not been for the aggressive behavior of Straussian neo-cons in the Washington Beltway, a comprehensive multi-territorial peace could have been achieved, including everything from Syria’s sovereignty, to a demilitarized zone in the Russian western borderlands, stability in the Caucasus, and a degree of respect for international law.
However, such a deal is unlikely to materialize, and instead, the situation in West Asia is likely to worsen. This is due in part to the fact that the North Atlantic has already shifted its focus to the South China Sea.
An impossible ‘peace’
The collective west appears to lack a decisive leader, with the Hegemon currently being “led” by a senile president who is remote-controlled by a pack of polished-faced warmongers. The situation has devolved to the point where the much-hyped “Ukrainian counter-offensive” may actually be the prelude to a NATO humiliation that will make Afghanistan look like Disneyland in the Hindu Kush.
Arguably there may be some similarities between Russia-NATO now and Turkiye-Russia before March 2020: both sides are betting on some crucial military breakthrough on the battlefield before sitting at the negotiating table. The US is desperate for it: even the 20th century ‘Oracle’ Henry Kissinger is now saying that with China involved, there will be negotiations before the end of 2023.
Despite the urgency of the situation, Moscow does not appear to be in a hurry. Its key military strategy, as seen in Bakhmut/Artemyovsk, is to use a combination of the snail technique and the mincing machine. The ultimate goal is to demilitarize NATO as a whole rather than just Ukraine, and so far, it appears to be working brilliantly.
Russia is in it for the long haul, anticipating that one day the collective west will have an “Eureka!” moment and realize it is time to abandon the race.
Now let’s assume, by some divine intervention, that negotiations would start in a few months, with China involved. Moscow – and Beijing – both know they simply cannot trust anything the Hegemon says or signs.
Moreover, the crucial US tactical victory has already been conclusive: Russia sanctioned, demonized and separated from Europe, and the EU cemented as a de-industrialized, inconsequential lowly vassal.
Presupposing there is a negotiated peace, it will arguably resemble a Syria 2.0, with a massive “Idlib” equivalent right on Russia’s door, which is something entirely unacceptable to Moscow.
In practice, we will have Banderista terror outfits – the Slav version of ISIS – free to roam across the Russian Federation in car bombing and kamikaze drone sprees. The Hegemon will be able to switch the proxy war on and off at will, just as it continues to do in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan with its terror cells.
The Security Council in Moscow knows very well, based on the Minsk farce acknowledged even by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that this will be Minsk on steroids: the Kiev regime, or rather the post-Zelensky regime will continue to be weaponized to death with brand new NATO gimmicks.
But then the other option – where there is nothing to negotiate – is equally ominous: a Forever War.
Indivisibility of Security
The real deal to be negotiated is not “pawn in their game” Ukraine: it’s the indivisibility of security. Exactly what Moscow was sensibly trying to convince Washington via those letters sent in December 2021.
In practice, what Moscow is currently doing is realpolitik: pounding NATO on the battlefield until they are weakened enough to accept a Strategic Military Operation (SMO). The SMO would necessarily include a demilitarized zone between NATO and Russia, a neutral Ukraine, and no nuclear weapons stationed in Poland, the Baltics, or Finland.
However, given that the Hegemon is a declining superpower and “non-agreement capable,” it is uncertain whether any of this would hold, especially considering the Hegemon’s obsession with infinite NATO expansion. “Non-agreement capable” (недоговороспособны), incidentally, is a term Russian diplomats coined to describe their American counterparts’ inability to stick to any deal they sign – from Minsk to the Iran nuclear agreement.
This incandescent mix gets even more complex with the introduction of the Turkish vector.
That might have been Putin’s plan, but it’s all flying south. Col. Mikhail Khodaryonok’s assessment of the current situation on Russian television:
The sign to the right of the Ukrainian soldier as the video opens reads Белгород (Belgorod).
05/12/23 – Russia acknowledges retreat north of Bakhmut, Wagner boss calls it a ‘rout’
Meanwhile
you fret your little self over Ukraine’s borders, while our border has been violated by over 6 million illegals in just 26 months.
you whine about the number of Ukrainian deaths, while hundreds of thousands of Americans have died due to Chinese/Mexican fentanyl.
you constantly tell us how the Ukrainians are winning their war while Bidens sells this nation out to the highest bidder.
you claim to live in Indiana but that is doubtful.
you claim to be a Vietnam vet but won’t say which side you fought for.
YOU ARE A PATHETIC LIAR AND TRAITOR TO OUR NATION.
I worry that Trump and Putin have a really good relationship.
Where could I possibly have gotten such a strange idea?
Seemed Barry also had a good relationship having more flexibility after his re-election, the loss of Crimea ring a bell? Some moronic reset button held by Killery do you have a memory longer than the last propaganda broadcast on the boob tube?
What soured this very good relationship, a State dept , CIA coup in Ukraine 2014.
Seems to me it was the Ukrainians themselves who kicked out Putin’s puppet. I can see now why they would have wanted to.
Really or a US State Department backed coup
https://justice4poland.com/2014/05/28/soros-admits-responsibility-for-coup-and-mass-murder-in-ukraine/
One of his many children the Atlantic Councel.
You are very naive or willingly ignorant.
What demons does Victoria Nuland carry everywhere that C goes there is bloodshed shortly thereafter.
Peace is never an option with Democrat rule they love blood sacrifice. Their very nature is violence and drama on a global scale.
So many kickbacks so little time.
Democratic administrations stopped the Triple Alliance in WW1, Hitler and Imperial Japan in WW2, the Chinese Communist expansion in Korea in the early 1950s, and forced the removal of nuclear missiles from Cuba in 1962. A Democratic administration also removed Osama bin Laden.
05/13/23 – Four Russian military aircraft shot down near Ukraine, Russian daily reports –
They hadn’t yet entered Ukrainian airspace. Invading Russian forces have lost effective air defense and superiority.
Sounds made up.
The story appeared in Kommersant, a Russian news outlet, as well as in Ukrainian outlets. The Kommersant article includes a video of one of the Rusian helicopters being struck by a Ukrainian missile.
05/13/23 – Shock and Disbelief in Russia