The capture of Mali Khan

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NATO announced the arrest of Mali Khan, a “senior leader” of the Haqqani Network. Sometimes these revelations of insurgents killed or captured exaggerate the importance of the “trophy.” Not so this time. Mali Khan really has been one of the lynchpins of the Haqqani Network, and his capture will pose a whole series of challenges for those who lead and cooperate with them.

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Given just how central Mali Khan was to Haqqani operations, the fact that he was taken alive makes his loss all the more troubling for the group. He is an example of how “capture” can be more effective then “kill.” The Haqqanis have to work on the assumption that the Afghan Government and NATO are acquiring a rather better understanding of network operations than just about anyone else might have been able to supply them. Commander networks which have been targeted in a “kill and capture” operation always move to appoint a successor to the man they have lost, and the Haqqanis will do the same for Mali Khan. However, they have barely a handful of family insiders capable of taking over the kind of commander-cum-leader-cum-manager role which Mali Khan played. And although it is far too early to write off the Haqqanis, the experience should push analysts to think ahead to the question of who the non-Afghan Waziristan militants will work through if there ever really is a weakening of the Haqqani role. After all, the Haqqanis are by no means the only strategic threat originating in Waziristan.

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Disclosing Khan’s capture was stupid. First of all, a misleading announcement describing his death would have possibly thrown off Pakistani government and Haqqanis countermeasures that will undoubtedly take place now that his capture was broadcast. Second, telling Khan that he is “dead” to the world would have given him no reason to withhold information, if he was willing to talk, and every reason to know that he could be handed off to any of his many enemies if he was unwilling to talk. Why we feel the need to tell anything and everything to the media during times of war is just stultifying.

It’s only because our strategic goals are ridiculously overambitious that someone can write with a straight face about ‘strategic threats’ originating in Waziristan. The whole place is about the size of the Edmonton metro area (just slightly larger and less populated), only with a tenth of the economy. If a place like that can create multiple ‘strategic threats’, you’re doing something wrong.