As the dust and smoke settle over Iran’s devastated nuclear weapons program, President Donald Trump’s method of waging war is coming into focus. We had hints of what I call the “Trump Doctrine” in his first term as he annihilated ISIS in Syria, but the two-decade war in Afghanistan that he had inherited initially obscured what has now become a coherent doctrine. In his second term, the freedom of navigation attacks against Yemen’s Houthis were once again a hint of Trump’s way of war, but Saturday’s attack on Iran—and the events leading up to it—tell us much about the deliberate and precise manner in which Trump seeks to conduct American wars. Similar to (but different from) the famous “Powell Doctrine” promulgated by former Secretary of State Colin Powell (more on that later), the Trump Doctrine is the doctrine of a businessman serving his stockholders. Explained another way, the Trump Doctrine is the “Businessman’s Way of War.”
To preview succinctly, the Trump Doctrine consists of a series of business-like, iterative steps for all uses of American military force, and it performs as follows:
- Identify America’s national interest.
- Bargain with the prospective enemy.
- If/when negotiations fail, conceal & misdirect
- Strike with precision and overwhelming force.
- Achieve submission.
- Bargain again (from a position of complete strength) with the defeated enemy.
I’ll now examine each of these escalating steps in detail.
“IDENTIFY AMERICA’S NATIONAL INTEREST.”
This first point is key in understanding the Trump Doctrine and how it differs from the Powell Doctrine. Both the Trump Doctrine and the Powell Doctrine focus on war as only being necessary when a vital American national interest is at stake, but the definition of that “interest” differs rather dramatically between the two doctrines. Whereas the Powell Doctrine allows for amorphous goals such as exporting democracy, the Trump Doctrine takes a fundamentally different approach—a businessman’s approach
You see, Donald Trump, a man whose entire life until 2016 was focused on winning in business, does not view himself as President of a nation so much as he views himself as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of a very large business, and that business is the United States of America. As CEO and Chairman, he knows he has a fiduciary duty to his stockholders. (You, me, and every other American are his stockholders.) The company Trump leads is not a non-profit—his company has no purpose other than to profit the stockholders. Regime change, spreading democracy, and trying to implement American concepts of liberty are the altruistic purposes of a tax-free, non-profit entity. But Trump sees America as a for-profit, and no actions will be taken for any reason other than to profit the American stockholders, and ending the nuclear capability of an Iranian regime of medieval theocrats greatly serves that purpose.
“BARGAIN WITH THE PROSPECTIVE ENEMY.”
Donald Trump will never expend American blood and treasure when a deal can be made first. Unlike so many of his predecessors, he does not care much about the moral fiber of America’s prospective enemies; he only cares about benefiting his American stockholders. Thus, when he offered the crazed theocrats ruling Iran a chance to bargain, he meant it. Trump does not care how much the mullahs punish their own citizens; he only cares about his fiduciary duties to his stockholders. Had the mullahs decided to bring their nation to the nuclear negotiating table in good faith, no B-2 bombers would have flown over Iraq this past weekend.
“IF/WHEN NEGOTIATIONS FAIL, CONCEAL & MISDIRECT.”
Trump gave the mullahs a chance to bargain. They declined. Think about this in the same way as when a large, profitable public company seeks to buy a weaker, distressed private company by way of merger. The first step is to offer a deal that benefits both parties. That’s what good businessmen do. But when the weaker company refuses to strike a deal that is in its best interest, the CEO of the stronger company starts to plan a hostile takeover while hiding his intent, and that’s just what Trump did with Iran.
When Google wants to buy a hot, new artificial intelligence start-up, it does not tip its intent off to Apple, and in fact will publicly pretend it has no interest at all in buying the distressed target company.
Trump employed a similar strategy as he engaged in what is now obviously a deception plan, where Trump and Netanyahu publicly pretended they were at odds. Even at the last minute—while Pentagon OPSEC was airtight—the public message was that Air Force B-2s were headed to Guam, but that was only a deception plan to obscure their actual flight plan from Missouri. Business is often like war, except without actual bloodshed. CEO Trump knows this, and made the same deception play in Iran as he would in forcing the sale of a distressed casino to one of his real estate ventures.
“STRIKE WITH PRECISION AND OVERWHELMING FORCE.”
Like the Powell Doctrine, the Trump Doctrine calls for the total commitment of America’s most lethal capabilities in an overwhelming manner. Like the large public company bringing all of its financial assets and influence to bear against a distressed merger target running from an undesired acquisition, Trump employed never-before-used Massive Ordnance Penetrators, delivered by our untrackable B-2 bombers, with an aerial corridor opened by Navy and Air Force stealth aircraft, while sub-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles took out targets that did not need the deep underground attack of the MOPs. Overwhelming military force is the way to defeat America’s enemies, just as overwhelming financial capabilities and business strategies ensure a powerful company controls the market against its competitors.
“ACHIEVE SUBMISSION.”
This is where the Trump Doctrine deviates most significantly from the Powell Doctrine. The lynchpin of the Powell Doctrine is achieving an “exit strategy.” An “exit strategy” is amorphous, and the enemy gets a vote. What was our exit strategy in Afghanistan? Tribal leaders who finally decided a democracy and personal liberty were the way to govern Afghanistan? Was the exit strategy in Iraq a sort of multi-ethnic republic with a constitution like our own? These goals were wishful thinking and led to 20+ years of useless, endless wars. President Trump sees “exit strategies” differently—he sees them as complete and total submission of the enemy.
To borrow a term from popular culture, Trump demands our foes “bend the knee,” and he will settle for nothing less.
Like the businessman he is, Trump expects his competitors to submit to his company’s will or cease to exist. As Trump said in his speech last Saturday night, “There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days.
This is not an “exit strategy.” This is a demand for complete and total submission. Importantly, Trump planned our attacks on Iran’s nuclear capabilities realizing that total submission was possible, and he would never have launched the attacks if total submission was not on the menu. That is a sea change from our recent history of complex geopolitical “exit strategies.” Trump’s exit strategy is simply complete and total submission, and nothing less. His stockholders deserve as much.
Businessman’s war, indeed.
I have to wonder, since Iran has just attacked US troops in Qatar BUT FAILED because all were intercepted, what President Trump will do.
Now Iran is sending missiles toward US troops in Iraq, so, the Mullah is taunting President Trump.
According to local news reports a lot of American bases all over the Gulf region are under attack.
Here’s what President Trump said would happen if Iran did this:
According to Pres. Trump, an attack upon military assets and personnel (if this report is true) will result in devastating bombing (not invasion) of the hostile Mullahs.
Note, it is NOT going to be directed at the Iranian people, but the MULLAHS.
Interesting.