State of Play: Trump 281, Harris 221 – And Pathways for Each Campaign

by Capt. Seth Keshel

I am fond of poker analogies, usually when describing counties that hold their votes until all their smaller counterparts have reported, then spend days trickling them in until the Democrats win the state.  I like to reference a poker match in which a three of a kind is laid out on the table, and instead of folding and losing the hand, the remaining player disappears to the bathroom for ten minutes, then comes back with a higher three of a kind, winning the hand.  In reality, no one would accept that because it suggests he disappeared to find more playing cards, as if they were ballots going toward an election victory.

In Lehi, Utah, this week, I dropped that poker analogy in front of a bunch of LDS church members in attendance at Phil Lyman’s seminar, saying “who here plays poker?”  You could have heard a pin drop; naturally, I recovered and lightened the mood by referencing a Mormon my Dad served with in Vietnam who used to clean everyone out but relieve the guilt by sending the money back to his church.  An understanding of poker is important because it involves psychology and knowledge of how your opponent thinks and plays if you want to be successful.  You don’t play the cards, you play your opponents.

It has become clear to me that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump view the Electoral College map the same way, and this picture is critical because it influences the behavior of both campaigns moving forward.  An intelligence officer understands that at this juncture, all new information informs decisions about what the opponent (in this case, Harris) must do to survive and turn the tide, and how our side (Trump) must counter in order to be the candidate holding 270 or more electoral votes at the end of counting in November.

The Lay of the Land

 
Yes, I believe a variety of factors has both campaigns understanding Trump has a solid lead in the Electoral College, something Tucker Carlson alluded to earlier this week when he referenced having seen the internal polling of each.

That map above includes the basic foundation of this year’s race to 270, which leaves Trump with his 2020 certified slate, now worth 235 electoral votes, and Harris at 221 – leaving just Nebraska’s 2^nd District off of the grouping I call “leaners,” for one electoral vote.

Start Point

Trump 235, Harris 221

I do not believe Harris has the juice to flip North Carolina, despite optimistic polling.  Mainstream polling had Clinton leading by an average of +5% in the last five polls leading up to Trump’s 3.6% win there in 2016, and I’ve written the following pieces about why Trump is likely to hold those 16 electoral votes, even in a pessimistic case:

Will Donald Trump Hold North Carolina in 2024? A Captain’s 100-County Overview

2024 Leaner Deep Dive and Forecast: North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)

My 2024 North Carolina 100 County Trend Forecast

I can’t see North Carolina closer than 1.4% for Trump, and just yesterday, three credible polls ran showing Trump up by 2-3 points as their early voting and mail ballot requests are in shambles.

This means 82 electoral votes are up for grabs:

Pennsylvania 19

Georgia 16

Michigan 15

Arizona 11

Wisconsin 10

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

Nebraska-2^nd 1

Trump needs to secure 42.7% (35) of those remaining electoral votes to return to the White House, and I think the campaigns show him with 46 of them definitively in his favor:

Arizona 11 (Trump at 246 electoral votes)

Pennsylvania 19 (Trump at 265 electoral votes)

Wisconsin 10 (Trump over 270, now at 275 electoral votes)

Nevada 6 (Trump at 281 electoral votes)

Why Arizona?

 
Trump has driven the Arizona GOP to its highest voter registration lead statewide this century, at +6.3% and +256,747 registrations (backdated and estimated low) as of the end of July.  Even factoring in a pessimistic response to Trump, primarily driven by Maricopa County, these numbers suggest a 4-7% win, and it is likely he will find unprecedented Hispanic voter support.  I think Kari Lake and the narrow legislative majority will find themselves targeted by ballot dumps and electioneering here.

Why Pennsylvania?

I think Pennsylvania waited too long to enact Automatic Voter Registration, and I’m not confident Josh Shapiro will pull out all the stops to make sure Harris can get ahead by a nose at the end.  Not only is Trump leading almost all polling coming out of Pennsylvania with only upside from here, Democrat mail ballot requests are way down, court rulings are going our way, and Kamala Harris hasn’t seen a hard hat in her life.  The crosstabs are suggesting she is going to make Hillary Clinton look like a giant among white working-class men in the Keystone State.

My pessimistic analysis of Pennsylvania has Trump by a point, with all of those Crimson and most of the Purple counties below poised to belch out much larger Trump margins than last time around – that’s a sea of Trump support:

Why Wisconsin?

Not only is Wisconsin difficult to poll even for honest pollsters, but it is also most certainly not going to vote to the left of Pennsylvania and Michigan unless those two states are on such overdrive for Trump that it is simply overwhelmed.  Wisconsin has the cleanest voter rolls of the Big 3 blue collar states, and I’ve pointed that out as a telling indicator that Trump can win the state with relative ease even in a mediocre performance.

The most important thing to note about Wisconsin is that it is tightly linked to Iowa, with many overlapping demographics, and there is no modern precedent for Iowa to go to Trump in the mid double-digits and for Wisconsin to vote Democrat – especially not amid a Trumpian working-class coalition shift.

 
Why Nevada?

The recent voter roll purge in Nevada has produced eye-popping change in the state’s voter registration data, which has been extremely predictive in the past two decades, and also removed the ability for tens of thousands of. phantom votes to be stuffed in ballot boxes in a state that has been decided by an average of 30,399 ballots in each of the last two elections.  Democrats now hold a party registration lead of less than 1%, and this is before we see the magnitude of Trump’s performance with Latino voters and the impact of his “no tax” policies for tips and overtime.  With other states more favorable for a steal now, I’m not sure stealing Nevada and its 6 electoral votes will take priority over trying not to lose the Rust Belt.

Harris Perspective

Those four states above are the strongest for Trump, and they collectively put Trump in the driver’s seat for surpassing 270 electoral votes, with 11 electoral votes (can spare Arizona, Wisconsin, or Nevada) of margin.

New Hampshire, which I will profile separately, is the most distant of the seven states on the political spectrum and while I believe it is potentially playable and will be within 5 or 6 points, is by default the least likely to wind up with Trump even in a positive outcome to the election, and in fact, one of just a handful of states I believe had a legitimate left shift in 2020.

Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional District, which Trump narrowly won in 2016 and lost (or maybe “lost”) in 2020, is potentially up in the air, but is loaded out with one of few demographics that have trended away from Trump in recent years – college whites.  A stronger performance with them and with minorities could make this one playable, but I have it leaning toward Harris ever so slightly.

The big dogs here, Michigan and Georgia, are troublesome because they operate Automatic Voter Registration and are dominated by sprawling urban areas in each.  I have profiled extensively why Michigan is by far the toughest of the Big 3 blue collar states for Trump, and recently issued my 159 county overview of Georgia’s upcoming election, which will be decided by how much of the Democrat vote Trump can syphon out of core Atlanta, and if and by how much Trump can amplify his margins in the Atlanta collar suburban counties.  The good news here is that polling looks good for Trump in both, and I think if he takes either one of these, especially Michigan, he’s going to be the inevitable winner of the Electoral College.  In other good news, I had previously believed there would be no path for Trump to 270 without Georgia – but it is clear I no longer see that as the case.

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