Russia Raises Stakes With Bold Strike On Danube Port…Ukrainian Troop “losses are astronomical”

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by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

When Russia began its large strikes on Odessa, we all wondered how far the Russian MOD would take things. We saw maps like the following, showing all the container ships heading up the Danube toward Ukrainian ports bordering Romania, and wondered whether Russia would strike those, being so close to the borders of a NATO state:

 
Those questions were answered today as Russia struck a major blow on the Ukrainian port of Reni a near-literal stone’s throw from Romania.


 

 
This is a major deal because it demonstrates a new hardline posture from the Russian MOD. Not only did they strike objects literally right on a NATO border, but even seemed to damage grain ships, which may belong to NATO countries.

This was clearly done to send a strong signal meant to convey Russia’s seriousness in rejecting the grain deal.

As you can see below, what appear to be entire grain silos themselves were flattened at the port:

 

 
I can only assume that one of the reasons for doing this—which had already been predicted by other commentators—was for Russia to make it unfeasible to insure any vessel that attempts to circumvent the previous corridors with the new Danube passage. It’s meant to show that this is truly the middle of a warzone, and no one should be passing without the express approval of the warzone’s chief administrator.

Recall that this was the official Russian list of requirements which would need to be fulfilled for Russia to reinstate the grain deal:

List of official requirements of Russia, the fulfillment of which will make it possible to resume the grain deal.

1. A real, not a speculative conclusion from the sanctions on the supply of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets.

2. All obstacles for Russian banks and financial institutions that serve the supply of food and fertilizers must be removed.

3. Deliveries to Russia of spare parts and components for agricultural machinery and the fertilizer industry should be resumed.

4. All issues with the charter of ships and insurance of Russian export food supplies must be resolved, all logistics of food supplies must be provided.

5. Unhindered conditions must be provided for expanding the supply of Russian fertilizers and raw materials for their production, including the restoration of the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline.

6. Russian assets related to the agricultural industry should be unlocked.

7. There must be a restoration of the original humanitarian nature of the grain deal. It should work for countries in need, not make rich countries richer.”

In recent weeks, the list of demands has expanded from 5 to 7. The West looks extremely unlikely to fulfill them. Erdogan does not have the resources to influence the West on these issues. Therefore, the probability of extending the grain deal on the same terms is vanishingly small.

Ukraine is desperately trying to keep the deal alive by making up all sorts of byzantine technicality-riddled proposals like the following:

💥💥💥Ukraine has circulated a letter through the International Maritime Organization with information on the creation of alternative sea corridors (green – shallow water, red – deep water) within the Ukrainian territorial sea and exclusive economic zone for use by vessels to export agricultural products from Ukrainian ports or to exit vessels that have been stuck in ports since last February.

This is apparently a reaction to the imminent increase in insurance or insurers’ refusals to provide services to ships travelling to Ukrainian ports.

It is stated that compensation is provided for “damage caused while vessels are in Ukrainian territorial waters when such vessels are travelling to/from Ukrainian open seaports to transport cargo”.

In context, this phrase most likely means that the condition for receiving compensation is damage to the vessel caused within the territorial waters of Ukraine.

However, the red (deep-water) corridor passes almost entirely outside its territorial waters.

 
To further complicate matters, one plan is to ship the grain by rail to Izmail, but that takes the grain over the oft-targeted Zatoka bridge:

Ukrainian grain will be delivered by rail through Izmail, where a large commercial seaport is located. As part of the US USAID program, specialized railcars have already been purchased.

At the same time, the city is connected with the rest of Ukraine, including the strategic bridge across the Dniester Estuary, located in Zatoka. It has been regularly attacked in recent days, there is no reliable information about its condition, now traffic on the bridge is closed.”

In the Odessa strikes last week, some reports claimed Russia struck the bridge and damaged the railway portion. There was no confirmation but Russia has targeted this bridge numerous times before, including with naval drones. And days after last week’s strikes, there were more reports that Russia will soon strike it with naval drones again to demonstrate its own new naval drones in the wake of Ukraine’s naval drone strikes on the Kerch.

Either way, Russia has the ability to destroy this bridge or continuously take it ‘off-line’ such that consistent and timely grain shipments via rail would be disastrously complicated if not completely nullified.

Moreover, there was one report that European countries do not want Ukraine to ship its grain directly to them via rail and are set to disallow this. Admittedly, I don’t yet understand the exact reason for why that is—maybe my intrepid readers know and can inform us in the comments. I can only speculate that it could have something to do with Europe not having the required infrastructure to handle that much grain by rail or perhaps further insurance issues, like with the shipping routes. One must remember that trains would theoretically carry far less than a cargo ship and would therefore require a disproportionate amount of trains to carry the same load as a ship, making logistics far more inefficient—or so I assume.

Also, here’s another perspective on the various strikes:

According to the night strike in Odessa and Nikolaev, you need to understand the following. Boris Rozhin:

1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have long stationed and stored weapons and ammunition in ports and, most likely, were confident that these stocks were safe because of the grain deal.
2. Night detonations in Odessa allow us to conclude that everything brought to the ports, probably, for the group “South” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was stored as tightly as possible. Some warehouses in the port area are still on fire.
3. The volume of destroyed ammunition and equipment is still difficult to understand, however, if weapons and BC were critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kiev will urgently request more in the near future.
4. To compensate for the supply of destroyed weapons, you will have to spend a significant amount of time. Given that a significant part of the 152-and 155-mm shells, as well as other weapons, go to the area of the Ukrainian offensive literally from the wheels, the APU will have to change the scheme and method of delivery, and this is an additional time that is not available.

Meanwhile, Zelensky begged NATO to convene a Ukraine-NATO council on the grain situation to salvage it:

Could not load video.

Now that we’re all grained out, let’s comment some more on the developing Polish situation. Earlier, Putin met with Lukashenko for a tour of the St. Petersburg area. Lukashenko had some interesting things to say. Here is the must-watch full subtitled video of their informal public talk:


 
My own main points:

  • They state that over 15 Leopards and 20 Bradleys were destroyed in a single recent battle, when the AFU made a new incursion attempt near Rabotino yesterday
  • Since July 4th, the AFU suffered “much more” than 26,000 KIA
  • Polish brigades are being transferred toward the Belarus border
  • The plan is being developed for Poland to annex Western Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine joining NATO
  • The big point: Partition of Ukraine is unacceptable to Belarus. And if necessary, Belarus is ready to ‘act’ to keep Poland from enveloping it from the southern direction
  • Wagner begs Lukashenko to let them invade Poland. This is likely a semi-tongue-in-cheek threat to keep Poland on its toes
  • Lukashenko instructs Putin to do an official overview with the Russian MOD about Belarus’s decision to act—potentially militarily—against Poland should they attempt to annex western Ukraine

A few things to unpack here. Firstly, one must remember that these ‘front-facing’ interactions are pretty much theater. They are stage performances meant to convey to the public what has already been discussed and decided on behind closed doors. Anything Lukashenko brought to bear was chosen very precisely to be spoken and understood, not only for the public audience, but specifically for Polish and NATO leadership as well.

The most significant take away is the fact that he appears to imply that Belarus would be forced to react militarily to any Polish annexation of western Ukraine. The stated reason is that Belarus is already surrounded by the Balts and Poles on east and west, and he cannot allow the state to be strategically compromised from the south as well.

This is not just lip service, we can see from a map that Poland on Belarus’s southern border puts all of western Belarus, most critically the city of Brest and surrounding regions, in a potential pincer should Poland choose to attack in the future:

 
They can easily cut off Brest entirely in one fell stroke.

Of course, Lukashenko couched this threat by saying that they would only take action if western Ukrainians ‘requested it’ from Belarus. However, there are many ways to generate such ‘requests’ whether they actually exist or not, should you need to.

The other biggest point was that Lukashenko formally requested for Putin to review this plan with Russia’s military, implying that there will be a coordination on this account between the militaries of the union state.

As I said, much of this is expressly done to send a message to Poland and NATO as a deterrence. However, as I mentioned in recent reports, the simple fact that these plans are now being so openly and candidly discussed at the highest level, by the state leadership of Belarus and Russia means that the Polish/NATO plan must be both real and fairly progressed into its actualization.

We’ve discussed these things for months, yet they were often seen as speculative or dubious rumors. Now, times have changed because Ukraine is left with no options and is failing catastrophically on the battlefield.

Just today, another Polish unit of 200 armored vehicles and equipment reportedly arrived near the Belarusian border:

#BREAKING 🇵🇱 Poland has just started transporting another 200 units of equipment in Podlaskie Voivodeship near the border with Belarus.

And the following report hit the newswires as well:

🇵🇱🇱🇹 Poland will create a new sapper battalion, which will specialize in conducting operations in the Suwalki corridor along the border with Lithuania , reports ERR.

The first soldiers will be invited to the new formation by the end of this year.

The Suwalki Corridor is a section in northeastern Poland, located between Belarus and Kaliningrad. Control of this corridor cuts the Baltics away from other NATO countries.

They are clearly concerned about this corridor and it would be a potential target for Wagner / Belarus if this becomes a Russia v NATO war.

Now, as for the other thing Lukashenko and Putin discussed. The past few days has seen a renewed Ukrainian offensive effort in the Rabotino-Orekhov direction. You know it’s a “serious” try when they begin to once more use the top NATO gear like Leopards and Bradleys, rather than the probing strikes with MaxxPros and such.

The attacks were again repulsed by Russian forces with horrific losses to the AFU. There are literally dozens of videos of armor losses with many confirmed new Leopard 2s and Bradleys destroyed. Here’s a sampling:

Leopard 2A4:


 
Leopard:


 

Fully intact M2 Bradley captured by Russian forces:


 
More destroyed Bradleys:


 
Huge compilation of new Leopard 2A6 hits by Lancet drones, as well as FPV hits on Bradleys:


 
Here two out of three Bradleys are destroyed, while the last manages to escape:


 
And another:


 
Mass Ukrainian POW captures:


 

 

 
And there are endless more graphic videos showing fields of dead AFU, like this one, and this one, and this one, as well as many other videos of destroyed non-Leopard/Bradley armor just from the past day alone, like hereherehere, and here.

In short, the losses are astronomical.

Even Ukrainian officers are beginning to admit the uncomfortable truth. Here one candidly states that they’re simply ‘running out of men’:


 
More Ukrainian brigades are mutinying, like this one which operates in the Antonovsky bridge area of Kherson, and has been bombarded by Russia for weeks now. They state that only 20% of their battalion is left alive due to the criminally negligent actions of their commanders:


 
With that said, Ukraine is having some success only in the Bakhmut-Artemovsk area, but at great cost. There, they’ve sent the elite Azov units to scrabble for gains and have managed to push Russian forces back again. It culminated in a particularly bad loss today where Russian VDV were ambushed in the southern tip of Klescheyevka, with upwards of 5-10 of them killed.

But I said before that AFU is pouring everything into this area, and every inch is coming at great cost to them, which shockingly, has even been memorialized in the Kiev Post:

 
As some have pointed out, if even the Kiev Post is making such admissions, then things must be really bad.

In general, news and leaks continue to filter out that suggest much worse losses for the AFU than many had calculated. Here’s one recent claimed Ukrainian leak which states that the AFU has 310k dead:

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I am sure greg knows better, not

“Putin bad” is a simpleton’s view of the conflict in Ukraine, a conflict the United States of America provoked by dismissing the Russian Federation’s security concerns, security concerns we would vigorously defend for ourselves.

Last edited 1 year ago by TrumpWon

Welcome to Ass Hat Central, your one source for all of the latest pro-Trump/pro-Putin/anti-democracy propaganda.

Worldwide, prices of grains are going up because of this.
Yesterday, India banned all rice exports save one type of rice, Basmati.
So, rice prices, too, are going up.

Ukraine is out of men but the globalists, like joe, want the fighting to continue as the Ukrainian blackmailers are still demanding more money.
It’s got to be disguised as war cash because, that way, taxpayers cover it instead of the wrongdoers themselves.

This war is lost. Take the L zelensky. It is over.

Last edited 1 year ago by TrumpWon

Tragic senseless loss of lives on both sides. The weapons makers are profiting. Not an intelligent human to negotiate a peace.

Tell it to the murderous KGB homunculus, Vladimir Putin. Ukrainians have a God-given right to self defense. Negotiations with the homicidal psycho wouldn’t end well for Ukraine, Eastern Europe, or anyone valuing Western democracy and personal freedom.

The only acceptable terms are for Putin to get the hell out of Ukraine and stop killing Ukrainians.

Last edited 1 year ago by Greg

…Russia on Tuesday expanded its military conscription base after a vote to raise the upper age limit from 27 to 30 passed in the lower house.

The bill, once signed into law by President Vladimir Putin, is expected to add 2.4 million men to Russia’s forces and will prohibit conscripts from leaving the country once they are called up for duty…

That should improve Putin’s popularity at home.

Last edited 1 year ago by Greg

07/25/23 – The Russians Packed Hundreds Of Vehicles Into A Crimean Repair Depot. The Ukrainians Just Hit It With A Cruise Missile.

There’s a vehicle park, in Novostepne a mile south of Dzhankoi in Russian-occupied northern Crimea, where Russian forces fighting in southern Ukraine send their damaged vehicles for repair.

On Monday, it exploded. According to Russian sources, a British-made Storm Shadow cruise missile, fired by a Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-24 bomber, was responsible for the blast.

How many vehicles were at the site at the moment of the Ukrainian strike is unclear. How many vehicles the strike destroyed also is unclear.

In the best-case scenario for Ukraine, a single cruise missile may have destroyed a hundred or more vehicles, inflicting nearly as much damage on Russian forces as the entire Ukrainian southern command has inflicted in the seven weeks since it launched its long-anticipated counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.

Even the worst-case scenario for Ukraine—minimal vehicle losses in Novostepne—still is good news. The strike at the very least should compel the Russians to disperse their logistical infrastructure in southern Ukraine, which would disrupt and slow vehicle repairs.

A billowing cloud of smoke and dust was, for residents of Crimea, the first evidence of the Monday strike. Russian sources soon confirmed the Ukrainian attack…

Murdering Ethnic Russian Ukrainian citizens was self defense…sure goose stepping war monger.
comment image

That was Putin propaganda, bouncing around between your ears courtesy of an army of paid social media Putin trolls.

Those who insist that Russia has “lost” the war in Ukraine do not understand the meaning of the word “lost.” Inconceivable (I love this clip).

LANDLOCKED: After Taking All Azov Sea Coastal Areas in the Start of the War, Russian Forces Now Are Blocking, Mining and Destroying the Infrastructure of All Ukrainian Black Sea Ports

zelensky is done, stick a fork in him. He has lost bidens war against Putin.