Rove: “Why Obama Is Likely To Lose in 2012”


President Barack Obama is likely to be defeated in 2012. The reason is that he faces four serious threats. The economy is very weak and unlikely to experience a robust recovery by Election Day. Key voter groups have soured on him. He’s defending unpopular policies. And he’s made bad strategic decisions.

Let’s start with the economy. Unemployment is at 9.1%, with almost 14 million Americans out of work. Nearly half the jobless have been without work for more than six months. Mr. Obama promised much better, declaring that his February 2009 stimulus would cause unemployment to peak at 8% by the end of summer 2009 and drop to roughly 6.8% today.

After boasting in June 2010 that “Our economy . . . is now growing at a good clip,” he laughingly admitted last week, “Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected.” The humor will be lost on most. In Wednesday’s Bloomberg poll, Americans believe they are worse off than when Mr. Obama took office by a 44% to 34% margin.

The last president re-elected with unemployment over 7.2% was FDR in 1936. Ronald Reagan overcame 7.2% unemployment because the rate was dropping dramatically (it had been over 10%) as the economy grew very rapidly in 1983 and 1984. Today, in contrast, the Federal Reserve says growth will be less than 3% this year and less than 3.8% next year, with unemployment between 7.8% and 8.2% by Election Day.

Mr. Obama also has problems with his base. For example, Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel, and left-wing bloggers at last week’s NetRoots conference were angry over Mr. Obama’s failure to deliver a leftist utopia. Weak Jewish support could significantly narrow Mr. Obama’s margin in states like Florida, while a disappointed left could deprive him of the volunteers so critical to his success in 2008.

Mr. Obama’s standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

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The biggest economic factor that will cause him to be defeated, if not at least highly vulnerable, is that inflation is beginning to climb with no stability in sight. While the Fed continues to inject dollars into the economy, of which none are actually backed by anything of substance, the value of the dollar continues to decline. Inflation stands at 3.6% today. How high will it be come November 2012?

People will begin to hoard, at least those who haven’t started already, the products being sold today because their dollars will go further today than they will in the future, and none of the “extras” will be within those items people will buy in bulk. The big retail chains will do somewhat ok, while the local mom n pops will be wiped out. It will be Carter all over again.

Somehow, though, I imagine that the stupid amongst us will still believe Obama’s tired rhetoric of “It’s all Bush’s fault”.


Somehow, though, I imagine that the stupid amongst us will still believe Obama’s tired rhetoric of “It’s all Bush’s fault”.

I also would be weary that we not misunderestimate the style over substance voters who flocked to him the first time around. His presidency is somewhat unique and may not follow the historical pattern of unemployment reelection.

Jewish voters are upset with his policy toward Israel,

Not so sure if this is the case or not. Many liberal Jews out here in LA are still more loyal to the Democratic Party and Obama than they are to Israel; or live in denial that Obama is bad for Israel policy.

Even as his own base criticizes him on policy and substance, whether too far left or not far left enough, I think many are still enthralled with the cult of personality that gripped around him in ’08; and committed partisans of course will simply hold their noses to vote not for him so much as against the Republican candidate.

This is why I keep hoping we can field a candidate with not only substance but style as well. Republicans are stigmatized as the party of rich old white guys. Perhaps Bachmann? Perhaps Cain?

This will not be an easy landslide election as far as I can tell, at this point.


This will not be an easy landslide election as far as I can tell, at this point.

No, it won’t, and I don’t think that it’s all that close to a foregone conclusion that a Republican will win either. One must remember the rabid clinging to half-truths, misleading commentary, and outright lies that many of the groups within the liberal constituency hold.

Even lies about what is, in fact, the truth about Obama’s dreadful economic policies will shift some independents his way, since some will still give him the benefit of the doubt, even if he doesn’t deserve such a concession.

the decisive shifting might happen in the category of the >UNEXPECTED EVENT<

I’ m no fan of “the architect” but he did manage to get two close wins for “W” by no means an easy task.
He also says Palin is “unelectable”,so he is believable.
Word I agree the election will almost certainly be close.Repubs must nominate someone who will appeal to other than “old white men.” Bachmann? RCP has her 2nd only 8% behind Romney when Palin not included.

and when obama is defeated, i hope he just shuts up.
my guess though is that he’ll be another jimmy carter,
running his mouth at every opportunity.

We’ll see.