by Rich Baris
Media love a horserace and his supporters love to retreat and hide out in their own delusions. But those of us who don’t play expert on Twitter, who know the rules and have been at this for years while fake names were still asking mommy to wipe their asses, know it’s now an inescapable reality the campaign will have to deal with.
The reality of the situation for Ron DeSantis, is dire.
The Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research Poll has confirmed several elements of our prior research, and it’s just not reversible in this current environment.
Gov. DeSantis’ approval ratings are about to sink underwater in his own state, a MAGA-Red State that loves Donald Trump. From the crowded field to head-to-head, the growing Hispanic population refuses to budge in their support of former President Trump.
Furthermore, this is where you separate the social media warriors from the men (figure of speech, ladies). Most of these people are nothing more than nasty amateurs who know nothing of delegate math, party or state rules.
The most important date for Team DeSantis is not January 22, 2024. It’s December 12, 2023. The former is of course the date of the Iowa Caucus, but the latter is the deadline to drop out for your name to be removed from the ballot in the Sunshine State.
Put plainly, Gov. DeSantis has got less than one month to drop out or face a 40-point trouncing in his own state. The nomination contest is in large part one of the reasons why his approval ratings are sinking quickly, and they will not recover with those Trump-supporting NPAs (look at the crosstabs) if he remains in the hunt awaiting his opponent’s incarceration.
Truth be told, they may never recover at this point. But one of these developments alone would result in a lame duck governor with no political future. And again, it’s possible he never recovers. But in one scenario he never recovers and is totally humiliated by his own voters, and he loses all power over the legislature. In the other, the humiliation is a little less and he can try to effectively govern the state.
P.S. Ohio and Iowa are also MAGA-Red States, not Red States. There’s a big, big difference.