The hot poll is the new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucus-goers released last night. It finds Romney leading, Paul stalling and Santorum surging:
- Romney – 24%
- Paul – 22%
- Santorum – 15%
- Gingrich – 12%
- Perry – 11%
- Bachmann – 7%
- Huntsman – 2%
Those results are based on four days of polling. Pundits are focused on the last days two of the poll, which show Santorum finishing in second place ahead of Paul. During the four days of polling Paul’s support fell from 29% on the first day to 16% on the last day. Paul’s stall comes as the media focuses on the racist content in Paul’s newsletters.
Only 51% of those polled said their mind was made up 41% said they could change their minds so the Caucus could be much different.
The poll was conducted December 27-30, 2011 and has a margin of error for the full four days of ± 4.0 percent and ± 5.6 percent for the last two days.
The NBC News/Marist Poll of likely GOP caucus-goers also found Romney in the lead and improvement for Santorum and Perry:
- Romney – 23%
- Paul – 21%
- Santorum – 15%
- Perry – 14%
- Gingrich – 13%
- Bachmann – 6%
The NBC News/Marist poll shows that Christian evangelicals, estimated to represent 50% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers are divided between Santorum 24%, Perry 21%, Paul 15%, Romney 13%, Gingrich 10%, and Bachmann 8%.
The Iowa NBC-Marist survey was conducted December 27-28, 2011 and has a margin of error of ± 4.7 percent for likely GOP caucus-goers. The likely voter model in the NBC-Marist poll includes independents and a few Democrats, and it measured some respondents by cell phone.
The December 28, 2011 Rasmussen Reports poll of likely GOP caucus participants found similar results:
- Romney – 23%
- Paul – 22%
- Santorum – 16%
- Gingrich – 13%
- Perry – 13%
- Bachmann – 5%
- Huntsman – 3%
According to Rasmussen, Paul dominates with 38% among non-Republicans who plan to participate.
