Transcript:
Sebastian Gorka: Alright, numbers. Polls are flying through the air. Talk of Kamala’s campaign imploding. What’s the truth on the ground? Let’s ask the man we trust. He is the People’s Pundit from bigdatapoll.com, the one and only Rich Barris. Rich, I just—for the last week, I’ve been saying, “Guys, cool it, cool it. I know these things look good, but they looked good in the midterms.” You know, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s the trend lines that matter. You’re the expert. What are you and your team at Big Data Poll seeing?
Rich Barris: Well, it’s never smart to sow complacency, right?
Sebastian Gorka: Right.
Rich Barris: So, tell people to put their foot on the gas and run like they’re 10 points behind all the time, right? That being said, we are about to release a slew of polling—some Rust Belt polling, some national polling, polling in Florida. And I stayed, Dr. Gorka, in the field over the weekend intentionally. Even though, honestly, we could have stopped, I wanted to because I thought I saw what I think I can say now. I think I started to see what I can say now, and that is the race is moving in Donald Trump’s direction. You know, we could talk about different groups, but he’s doing considerably better with some of the groups that cost him in 2020.
Sebastian Gorka: Well, let’s drill down on the one that’s always been the perennial bugbear: suburban white women. Where are we? We’ll talk about other demographics in a second, but the suburban white women who don’t like the mean tweets—do we have any trend lines there?
Rich Barris: Yeah, yeah. So, in truth—and we keep hearing this, right? We obsess over that demographic—but the truth of the matter is the suburban white woman is trending slightly back because white women in general are. Everyone on the Democratic side is hoping and praying that, at the end of the day, she does better than Joe Biden did. But right now, there’s just no evidence. We’re talking about marginal changes. The real big movement is not coming from them, and that’s Kamala Harris’s problem. She needs not to lose a point or two off Biden’s margin from that group—she needs to expand with all whites with a college degree if she’s going to offset the movement in the other groups that we are clearly seeing shift towards Donald Trump.
Sebastian Gorka: And how does the thing we’ve discussed so many times before factor in today, with all of your competitors who aren’t as assiduous as you? Are the oversampling of the wrong demographic—you know, white, college-educated—are we still seeing those mistakes being made? And then, the second factor that I’ve always thought is so important: are Trump voters willing to talk to pollsters now more than they were, or not?
Rich Barris: Yeah, that’s a good question. So, there is a little bit of a resting of this response bias trend that we saw, which was clearly favoring Kamala Harris. What do I mean by that? It’s not only a matter of whether you spoke to enough non-college people, but among your non-college sample, is it too liberal, right? Is it too female? Is it too metro-area heavy? So when you think you’re speaking to non-college voters, are you speaking to them outside of places like Dane County or Green Bay, or are you talking to them in Sauk and Juneau? And I’m using Wisconsin as an example because it’s been a repeat violator year after year, right? The Biden plus 17 in Wisconsin—that was a major problem. About two weeks ago, it started to get a little better, so I think we’re starting to level off here. But there’s no doubt there is still an issue with those educated women that we obsess over. They happen to be the first ones to want to take a poll, and they want to tell you everything they believe, Dr. Gorka.
Sebastian Gorka: Yes.
Rich Barris: And it’s like these are the voters that the agent on the other end needs to steer back every three seconds—”OK, but we’re just having a conversation. Yes or no will suffice,” or “somewhat approve or somewhat disapprove will suffice.”
Sebastian Gorka: Yes.
Rich Barris: And they don’t do it. They give you these elaborate answers about why they strongly approve of Joe Biden, and then they give you elaborate answers on why—who do you trust more to handle immigration? Kamala Harris. And let me tell you why: it’s really not about immigration, it’s because I don’t agree with Trump on abortion. And if I can’t agree with him on abortion and trust him on abortion, then I mean—it’s like, lady, Trump or Harris? I mean, this is the stuff we run into. And it’s just funny. Americans are funny, and everyone’s got their little quirks and niches. But when it comes to polling, these groups—every pollster knows what I’m talking about, right?
Sebastian Gorka: Yeah, I think there are a lot of people out there who are nodding, saying, “Oh my gosh, she’s just described my life.” That is why I could not do your job—the idea of me having to talk to white suburban housewives. We have a problem. We have a race problem in America, and it is the white suburban housewife who really doesn’t understand America. But we have to discuss the battleground states.
Sebastian Gorka: Rich, we’re back with the People’s Pundit, Rich Barris. Sean—did Sean Spicer, my former colleague in the White House—did an hour-long video on his YouTube channel last week where he went state by state, and it was really fascinating. He got to a result where President Trump would handily win 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Kamala Harris. Let’s keep the map up at the same time so people can relate. Let’s look at the battleground states, and also, let’s talk about the fascinating thing you said during the break, Rich, about how there are differences between where Kamala is going to be weak and strong, and where Biden was going to be weak and strong. So, let’s start with where her big problems are right now.
Rich Barris: So, her big problem is in the Rust Belt, which is the so-called blue wall. You have the big three, right? Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And that’s what I was saying during the break—that I really do believe now, after seeing where these groups are ending up, that Joe Biden would have been stronger in the Rust Belt than Kamala Harris.
Sebastian Gorka: Because he’s Scranton Joe, and that brand.
Rich Barris: Exactly. And we’ll have to see how—I get in trouble every time I say this, but I don’t care because it’s the only way that it makes sense to people, like really makes sense. It’s Scranton Joe versus Canadian Kamala, who was a U.S. Senator from California. Who do you think is going to do better in Northampton, PA? Who do you think is going to do better in Scranton, PA? And now in Michigan, what we’re seeing is that she has a very clear problem, not only with the groups that have been trending away from Democrats in the era of Trump, but with the white working-class voters that Joe Biden was able to peel back enough of to win places like Genesee and Saginaw.
Sebastian Gorka: Is it an oversimplification to say her issue is with white working-class rural areas?
Rich Barris: It’s more than just white voters. We broke this down in the last hour on a program I was doing, and I’ll do it again when I put this poll out. People should keep an eye on my Twitter feed, Locals feed, everything. Look at gender by race, look at education by race. We’re always talking about younger black males, but in truth, black women are telling us—they’re in the teens for Trump. Black men—two in ten are voting for Trump before we even lean the undecideds. So, she’s got a problem with the working class everywhere. If you’re not in this metro urban liberal bubble, you can’t see why Kamala Harris is going to have a problem with these voters.
Sebastian Gorka: We’re going to talk about one state I visited this weekend: Pennsylvania. Is it the state to watch? Bigdatapoll.com with Rich Barris, founder of Big Data Poll, the People’s Pundit. I’m Sebastian Gorka. This is America First, coming to you live from the Relief Factor studios.
James Carville: “Trump has announced that he will be giving a speech at Madison Square Garden on October 27th. Please Google Madison Square Garden, February 10th, 1939, and see what happened there. They are telling you exactly what they’re going to do. They’re telling you, “We’re going to institute a fascist regime.””
Rich Barris: Mm-hmm.
Sebastian Gorka: And the press and all the Alan Dershowitz wannabes out there, they’re saying, “But Jane, she should have gone to the Al Smith dinner.” Really? She doesn’t do enough long-form interviews. That guy’s a caricature. He truly is. He’s like a ventriloquist dummy. James Carville isn’t happy, and of course, everyone knows what happened at Madison Square Garden in February 1939. There was a pro-Nazi rally, which is exactly why President Trump is going there, right? You’re not demented at all, are you, James Carville? When you hear things like that, Rich, when you hear alleged Democrat strategists say, “It’s Hitler, 21 days before the actual election,” and in the meantime, you’ve got the President of the National Border Patrol Council getting up on stage endorsing President Trump, you’ve got the likes of Dennis Quaid in Coachella yesterday saying, “We gotta have borders, I’m voting for Donald Trump.” I may be a Hollywood mega star, but I know how to save America. Have you ever seen an election this insane, Rich?
Rich Barris: We’re really bordering on something here that none of us have ever seen. But what we have seen is the stuff we just heard out of James Carville. And James, you know it, I know it—you’re losing, and you’re having a meltdown. He went on, apparently, a call with some Harris people and flipped out. He started screaming profanity at them, telling them they’re losing and they’re going to take everybody down with them. So, I get his frustration. But here’s the thing—your blood pressure would decline a whole lot, James, if you realized you’re not really a Democrat anymore. The party you stood for in the ’90s is dead. It’s been dead for a long time. You’ve just been doing a very good job hiding it. So, people like him—I actually feel bad for them. They don’t really have a place anymore, Dr. Gorka. You know, socially on some issues, they’re definitely on the right. They don’t believe in some of this crazy stuff. They don’t want to watch a trans biological man beat the daylights out of a woman at the Olympics. They don’t want to talk about all of this crazy stuff. They want to keep their football, they want to keep their beer. But at the same time, they still want to pretend to be part of the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, those things don’t align anymore.
Sebastian Gorka: Well, don’t feel too sorry for him, because that’s the same Carville who said about the women that Bill Clinton had abused sexually that “It’s amazing what happens when you drag a $100 bill through a trailer park.” So, that’s the kind of scum Carville is. Let’s move on—we’ve got a couple of questions. Let’s talk about early voting, let’s talk about rural areas. I was in Pennsylvania with my muse, Katie, yesterday for an amazing event with the Kahr Firearms group—the Rod of Iron Festival. We were there with the GOP and with the Early Vote Action, heroes of Scott Presler’s organization. Let’s start with this—everybody’s saying, “It’s Pennsylvania, it’s Pennsylvania.” If he wins Pennsylvania, it’s over. Is Pennsylvania the touchstone as well as the keystone?
Rich Barris: It’s appropriately named, it really is. And, you know, there’s a misconception out there that some of these guys just hit these states now. That’s not really true. There are multiple groups—Presler’s been doing what he’s doing for a long time. It’s just that unlike when Ronna was the RNC chair, he now has the attention he’s deserved for a while. There’s, of course, the president’s own agenda. There’s Turning Point, there’s TenX Votes, and all of these efforts to get these low-propensity and no-propensity voters to the polls. They can make us all look stupid on Election Day, by the way, because most of the pollsters are going to screen these people out. But if Trump wins Pennsylvania, it’s not just, you know, we’re going through these fantastical scenarios on Twitter and these shows where pundits and election mafiosos are giving us all these complicated maps. Maybe he wins Pennsylvania, but she wins Michigan and Wisconsin, and then he takes Georgia but she takes Arizona. Folks, that’s simply not how this stuff works.
Sebastian Gorka: Oh, oh, yeah, bring this up, Eric. What is this insane Wall Street Journal poll? Just give us a very quick overview, and then Rich will dismantle it.
Video: Yeah, it had Trump up by one nationally, them tied in Wisconsin, North Carolina. Kamala up by two in Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan. Trump up by one in Pennsylvania, and Trump up by six in Nevada.
Sebastian Gorka: I’m sorry, that’s just crazy, Rich.
Rich Barris: We’re calling them “bipolar polls,” and I try to give some of these pollsters leeway because I understand how difficult the environment is to poll in with all the response biases and everything we’ve discussed on this show and elsewhere. But this is nuts. The answer to that is you stay in the field longer until you get better data, I’m sorry. That’s the problem with media polling and university polling. They have a certain budget—if they are not stratifying correctly or adequately and they’re not hitting the quotas for each group, they still hit their budget. That’s the difference between us at Big Data Poll and some of these other people. If we blow our budget, we blow our budget. We have to be right, and that’s it. I will eat the cost if I feel like a group is underrepresented.
Sebastian Gorka: Let’s—
Rich Barris: That is not the case in this industry.
Sebastian Gorka: We’ll keep you—go on, go on.
Rich Barris: Mathematically, you can’t be ahead in the popular vote under that scenario. It doesn’t make sense.
Sebastian Gorka: We’ll end the hour with you, but in this last minute we have: early voting—anything significant you’re seeing in Virginia? The rural areas are breaking records. That’s got to be a good sign for President Trump, correct?
Rich Barris: It is, and it’s not just Virginia. Although I can give people the very latest in Virginia right now. Remember, Virginia has to be modeled by party because it has to be what’s called inferred by modeling—there’s no party registration. But just look by age, for instance: 18 to 29 early voting or absentee as of today—only 6.3%, that’s it. 30 to 39? 6.1%. 40 to 49? 8%. 50 to 64? 25.8%, and 65+? 53.7%. This is why I’m confident in the likely voter modeling we’re doing for the polls, because these people are telling us—many of these first-time 2020 voters that put Biden over the top—a lot of them are telling us they’re not voting, and Trump’s getting the lion’s share of these lower-propensity and first-time voters. In Virginia, the first-time voter numbers look great, and if you’re Trump, you love it because you’re winning first-time voters—something most Republican candidates are not doing. In New Hampshire, Democrats are down 10 points.
Sebastian Gorka: Yeah, and people aren’t talking about this. This is a really important thing. People are missing that first-time voters and who they’re breaking for is absolutely huge. It’s a category that’s far too often forgotten. The data is at peoplespundit.locals.com, peoplespundit.locals.com, and bigdatapoll.com is the website. I’ve got to ask him one more question—he’s so gracious with his time. Thank you to his bride as well for getting him on today. He’s Rich Barris, the founder of Big Data Poll.
Sebastian Gorka: I’m here today to tell you that it’s time to pick a side. Are we going to be a nation that stands for the Constitution—or for TikTok? Are we going to be a nation of law and order—or wide-open borders? Which is it? Because it’s time to pick a side.
Sebastian Gorka: Hi, that looks a lot like Dennis Quaid. It can’t be something from Hollywood at a Trump rally in Coachella. Was that strange—was that another assassination attempt? God bless Dennis Quaid. Maybe acting in the role of Ronald Reagan recently was a key part of his conversion. How did he get there? Because he recognized that we are under the thrall of Marxism—next-gen Marxism. It’s Katie’s new book with Mike Gonzalez. It’s an 80-year plan they are initiating now in the final stage. We’ve got to stop them. Read Katie Gorka and Mike Gonzalez’s book, Next-Gen Marxism: What It Is and How to Combat It. We’re back with Rich Barris. I have one question left—when are we going to know who won, Rich?
Rich Barris: Alright, it is possible to know who won on election night, despite what everybody is saying, because of the changes that happened in Pennsylvania, which is a rare loss for Democrats. I can’t recall the last time Democrats lost an election lawsuit at the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court. We will know how many ballots were requested, and they’re not allowed to count certain votes that don’t have the correct or missing dates on them. That’s what held things up for a while. Arizona is going to be a pain for four days, at least. It is what it is. So, people like me are going to be looking at what is outstanding—what is Kamala’s margin with outstanding votes statewide, and is that enough to overcome Trump’s Election Day lead? Now I can tell you right—
Sebastian Gorka: Right, this is a key issue. If there aren’t enough votes outstanding and he’s already got enough Electoral College votes, it’s game over, right?
Rich Barris: Yeah, that’s it, that’s exactly right. This is what I’ve been trying to tell Republicans for a while. They have people out there barking insane theories, and it hurts the entire cause of election integrity. Bottom line is, there is no world in which Democrats can just feed an infinite number of votes through.
Sebastian Gorka: Yeah, right.
Rich Barris: Listen, the bottom line is that what the president said—too big to rig, alright? That’s my phrase to his ear because that is the reality. You can vote in such numbers that we know what’s outstanding is not enough. Even if she was getting 95-98% of it, it wouldn’t matter. So, looking at early voting, like we talked about in the last segment, if Democrats don’t pick it up, we’re likely to know who won much earlier than later. If the margin is big enough in Pennsylvania, it could be called that night, and even if it’s not officially over, it’s game, set, match.
Sebastian Gorka: There’s a certain number of voters in each state, there’s a certain number of seats you need in the Electoral College, and if the math is there, the math is there. In the meantime, 21 days to go—peoplespundit.locals.com, @Peoples_Pundit on Twitter. I’m Sebastian Gorka, this is America First, it’s Monday.
