Peace in our time: Russian naval force in the Mediterranean

J.E. Dyer:

What’s going on in the Mediterranean right now is actually more normal than the odd hiatus we have inhabited for the last 20 years. Historically, nations have vied for influence around the Med, bringing ships and ground troops to bear on a regular basis. The Eastern Med has been a crossroads between East and West for a good 3,000 years, hosting land and sea operations by the Persian, Roman, Abbasid, Umayyad, Holy Roman, Byzantine, Ottoman, British, Napoleonic, and Russian Empires.  The Eastern Med was a nexus of dispute between the Soviet-led East and the US-led free West in the Cold War.  A relatively pacified Eastern Med, like the one we have enjoyed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, is a historical oddity. And it’s coming to an end.

As the Assad regime in Syria launches an assault on the major city of Aleppo, a Russian naval task force has assembled in the Med.  Along with a Northern Fleet destroyer and a Baltic Fleet frigate, the Black Sea Fleet destroyer Smetlivy – our buddy with the smokestack – is back in the Med.  In company with these combatants are three Ropucha-class landing ships(LSTs) from the Northern Fleet, which are reported to be carrying a detachment of Russian naval infantry (i.e., marines).

If Russia sought to have the option of a forcible entry into Syria, she would want – among other things – more landing ships.  And in mid-June, two amphibious ships of the Black Sea Fleet, a Ropucha and a newer Alligator-class ship, were ordered to be ready to deploy with a brigade of naval infantry.  The five landing ships combined would, with the naval infantry brigade, make a full amphibious task force.

The Russians have said repeatedly that this naval deployment is not related to Syria.  Russia will conduct exercise Kavkaz 2012 in the Caucasus in September, and the assembled ships are to participate in it.  It being late July at the moment, they have arrived very early for an exercise that won’t take place for another six weeks.  But if nothing occurs to forestall the exercise, the ships will take part.  The most likely place for an exercise landing is the short Russian coastline in the Black Sea, very possibly spilling across the border to the coastline of Abkhazia, Georgia’s “break-away” republic, which Russia has recognized since 2008 as a separate nation.

That said, the situation in Syria is coming to a major decision point.  If Assad can’t assume control of Aleppo, he can’t regain control of Syria, at least not without a major regrouping and an infusion of outside assistance.  The battle for Aleppo is a must-win for him.  Let me emphasize that I do not think Russia intends to project naval force into this battle.  Aleppo is about 80 miles inland, and Turkish territory lies between Aleppo and the sea to the west.  The path to Aleppo is inconvenient, and affecting a battle there from the sea is not reasonably within Russia’s naval capabilities.

But what Russia could do with the force she has in the Med now is protect a resupply route for Assad from the sea, protect areas of the coast (e.g., Tartus), and even land a force – under the right conditions – and move it to Damascus.  For the latter two missions, the Russians would want to have air support, which they would presumably deploy to Syria if it were needed.  (I doubt they would rely on the Syrians for air support.)

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