Patterico @ Patterico’s Pontifications:
Via Ace comes this depressing assessment of the presidential race:
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows Romney leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Barack Obama leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Obama leads by an average of five points. It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Romney is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Romney’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Obama because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. . . .
Yes, in principle, Romney could win. The stock market could crash. Obama could be caught shagging an intern. Romney could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Romney will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. . . . [L]ook closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you’ll realize why it’s practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Obama doesn’t just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.
Depressing, right? Well, maybe not so much.
See, if you click the link, you’ll see that my quotation is not quite accurate. I substituted “Romney” for “Bush” and “Obama” for “Gore.” Yes, the quote is from William Saletan, during the 2000 presidential election, explaining why Bush couldn’t possibly win.
I’m sure Saletan is out there making confident pronouncements even today. Gotta pay the bills somehow. But every so often it’s good to look at recent history for perspective.
No doubt this is why the MSM decided to post the results of new polls which unconventionally, discards the traditional “after the convention” general presidential election practice of polling likely voters. This results in a slanted poll, which is what the pro-Omama MSM wants in order to discourage independents.
have any of you ever asked about the poll’ s demograpics or read the fine print of the democraphic structure of the poll? ONe of the latest polls was conducted in Conn. with 74% population democrate>
Comment as published in original article:
Or, all the attempts by Republicans to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters, by requiring specific voter ID’s, under the guise of preventing an insignificant amount of voter fraud, could work.
@liberal1(objectivity):
Lessadolla Sowers was convicted on ten counts of voter fraud recently. She received a sentence of five years per count, but the judge decided to let her serve them concurrently. Lessadolla Sowers was on the executive board of the Tunica County, Mississippi NAACP. Ms. Sowers is a Democrat.
Yesterday, Wendy Rosen, Democrat candidate for U.S. Congress in Maryland, dropped out of the race when it was learned that Ms. Rosen has been voting illegally in two states, Maryland and Florida, since 2006 and voted in the 2008 presidental elections in both states.
Seems you should be more worried about people having their vote disenfranchised by Democrats. Did you agree with the politicy of the DNC to require photo I.D. to enter their Godless convention?
Let’s not forget some outside influence in the polls as well.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/06/emails-suggest-axelrod-leaned-on-gallup-after-unfavorable-poll/
I’ve been reading articles by the pundits, including conservative ones, who stated Romney didn’t receive a bounce from the convention. Rasmussen had him with a 4- 6 point bounce so they must be selective in which polls they read or report on. Obama’s bounce was one or two points more. The only poll that matters is the November 6th one. My gut feeling is that this won’t be a 2000 scenario. Whoever wins will do so by a margin at least as big as Bush’s in 2004.
CURT
don’t scare me like that,
I’m working so hard to get at the ignorant to understand how important it is to vote for MITT ROMNEY IF THEY WANT TO FEED THEIR FAMILY, WHEN THE FOOD STAMPS RUN OUT,
they won’t like OBAMA BY THEN, IF THEY ELECT HIM AGAIN,
BECAUSE LAZY AS HE IS, HE WILL AGAIN BLAME THE CONGRESS SHOUTING PUBLICLY ,
TO MAKE BELIEVE THEY ARE THE CAUSE OF HIS FAILURE, AREN’T YOU ALL SICK AND TIRE TO LISTEN TO OBAMA MULTIPLE SPEECH, AND NO WORK ON IMPORTANT ISSUE, HE LOCK HIMSELF IN HIS CORNER WITH VALERY JARRET AND NOBODY CAN REACH HIM, FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE REGARDING THE NATION’S BEST INTEREST, WHAT IS HE DOING THERE ALONE WITH HIS LONGTIME FRIEND? YOUR GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE, OBAMA NEGLECT THE NATION DEMANDS FOR HIM TO DO HIS WORK, THE NATION IS PAYING HIS SALARY AND MAKING HIM BECOME RICH, BUT AT LEAST HE COULD TRY TO GIVE BACK AND EARN HIS MONEY COMING FROM HARD WORKING CITIZENS,
IF YOU LOVE HIM SO MUCH THINK AGAIN , HE IS NOT FOR YOU, STOP DREAMING ABOUT HIM,HE IS NOT THAT GOOD LOOKING, WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH THOSE GETTING IN A TRANCE FOR OBAMA?
THEY NEED SOME HELP FROM THE PSYCHIATRIST, THEN THEY WILL KNOW HOW THE REAL OBAMA IS, AND THEY WILL NOT LIKE TO HAVE FOLLOW A DECEIVER
I was reading the local rag in Minot, N.Dakota. The editorial implied that the Dems had a very good chance of recovering the Conrad Senate seat this November. I believe this upholsterer when I see it. Nothing but misdirection, just like most polls. Remember Wisconsin. Now, Michele Bachmann is in trouble. LOL. Her constituency has been remapped with more conservative districts. She’ll win by more then 10 points.
I believe it could be almost as close as 2000 when Gore won popular vote by 500,000 with over 101 million cast and “w’ electoral college 271-266 with delayed Fla. win.
Voter turnout by Dems. critical. 2008 BHO 69.45 million to Macs. 59.93 mill. E.C. 365-173
65 MILL to win in 2012 Mitt must win in Ohio, Fl. and Va. to be POTUS. Very possible still.
When was the last time legacy media projected a Republican win? I’m a stay positive, Nov is around the corner.
@retire05, #4:
Republicans really need to consider the meaning of the words statistically insignificant. The words describe the number of actual cases of voter fraud they’ve managed to come up with, despite having expended enormous effort and a lot of public money looking for as many as possible.
What isn’t statistically insignificant is the number of entirely legitimate voters who will likely be deprived of a basic constitutional right because of an orchestrated, multi-state voter suppression effort done under the pretense of reducing supposedly rampant voter fraud.
By some odd coincidence, the strongest efforts now seem to focused in states sharing 2 characteristics: republicans have control of the state government, and the state will be one of those likely to decide the outcome of the 21012 presidential election.
How bad and blatant is it getting? Here are a few things you most likely haven’t heard about on Fox News: Republican war on voting most intense in a few crucial states.
The “emergency rules” recently declared by Iowa’s republican Secretary of State are absurd. One would allow him to initiate a purge of Iowa’s voter rolls less than 60 days before the election, leaving legitimate voters with very little time to discover that they’ve lost their right to vote and take corrective measures; the second allows anyone to level an accusation of voter fraud at anyone else–anonymously. Accusation would presumably prevent your vote from being counted until an investigation has been conducted. Under previous rules such an accusation required a signed complaint; there were legal consequences for knowingly making false complaints.
In Florida there’s a new combination tactic. In heavily populated areas where there were very long polling place lines before early voting days were expanded, early voting days have now been cut back by nearly half. As if that wouldn’t slow down voting enough on it’s own, Florida officials have decided to print out a number of the 11 proposed amendments to the state’s constitution in full, expanding the length of the ballot voters must wade through up to 10 pages.
Polling practices in Florida already fouled up one national election in the very recent past. It looks like they might be going for two.
GREG
HOW ABOUT 35 THOUSAND DEAD PEOPLE REGISTERED DEMOCRATS FOUND IN 3 TOWNS OF ONLY ONE STATE , REMEMBER THAT ONE? JUST A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO
@mossomo: Another reason to be skeptical of the way some of these polls are being conducted.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
There has also been a shift in the electorate with more people identifying themselves as ‘R’ and far less identifying themselves as ‘D’ so if these pollsters are conducting their polls based on 2008 party affiliation, they will be heavily skewed towards Obama. Add in how Obama has inflamed conservatives who sat out last election but who won’t sit out this election with the fact that his base won’t turn out in as big of numbers as last time because some of them, such as blacks, have been some of the hardest hit by the Obama recovery, and the poll numbers maybe even more skewed.
another vet
and there are more blacks killed by other blacks in the last 4 years of OBAMA.
THAT should tell them that they would be more secure with the REPUBLICANS
JUST NOW ON FOX; CHARLES PAYNE CEO WALL STREET SAID THE OBAMA CREATE 12 OOO JOBS AND 6 OUT OF IT IN EUROPE, AND THEIR GAINS ARE STAYING THERE,
IT’S TERRIBLE HE SAID HOW BAD IT IS,
@ilovebeeswarzone, #11:
Finding that many deceased people on the voting rolls in a large city wouldn’t be at all unusual, if the registration board hasn’t regularly cross-checked voter rolls against against the state’s death certificate records. That hadn’t been done in many places for years.
My guess is that the ratio of deceased-but-still-registered republicans to democrats likely approximated the ratio of living republican voters to democrats in the area in question. That detail gets conveniently omitted. Neither group likely had a large turn-out after death. They had just remained on outdated rolls.
@ilovebeeswarzone: They won’t vote Republican, but will they will be more inclined to stay home. Once blacks begin to follow the lead of the likes of Allen West, Herman Cain, and Condi Rice as opposed to Jessie, Al Sharpton, Louis Farrakhan, and the current occupant of the WH who teach them that handouts and blaming others is the way to go as opposed to hard work and education, they will be better off and return to their old voting habits where they voted ‘R’ more often than ‘D’. The problem is there is an old saying that says, “Never bite the hand that feeds you.”
Romney may have a serious problem in the form of Libertarian Gary Johnson.
I actually like the guy myself; fiscally conservative, but socially progressive.
@Greg: If Romney and the Republicans blow this, I will most likely give him a stronger look in 2016 should he run.
GREG
IT WAS NOT IN A LARGE CITY, AND IT WAS ONLY DEAD DEMOCRATS SPLIT IN 3 SMALL CITY. 36 THOUSANDS
another vet
but the lie in there is the hand that feed them is not OBAMA’S HAND, IT’S THE MANY HANDS OF THOSE WHO WORK THEIR BUTTS OUT TO PAY THE OBAMA HANDOUT,
The good men are burdened with the responsibly of exterminating the bad men. They lose sleep over this thing…
The bad shall always outnumber the good men, according to other men.
This is as it must be. Some understand.
mmercier
i think you’re right hen we see so many bad, but the good always end up exterminating some,
if they are really good and smart like the CONSERVATIVES,
WATCH THE BADS FLY AWAY ON NOVEMBER WHEN THE PEOPLE WILL SAY THEIR LAST WORD,
THE DAY WHEN THE PEOPLE WILL RISE BODY AND SOUL TO VOTE DEMS OUT
BYE
>ilovebeeswarzone.
Homicide is generally racially confined. Blacks kill blacks… whites kill whites… Chinese kill Chinese.
The question of the numbers is an ever changing paradigm relative to economic prospect of the population examined
It is amazing how peaceful this population is
,
Rereading my last… ho hummer
My intention was to convey my amazement at the apparent servility and peaceful nature of the entire population.
It is possible my wording could be construed as racist. This is not my intent.
mmercier
peaceful not really anymore, but tolerant ans sad and stunt and depress yes in these time more than ever and too much is pushing the citizens to exasperation, and if they where not tolerant to accept what is impose to them, they would exterminate their leader,
My loverbee..
Politics causes otherwise rational individuals to become insidious to their true nature.
I am as guilty as everyone else who desires this rarefied taste.
mmercier
how many days left? we better get more insidious beginning now,
if we want to reach the in time to win, the people are too depress, it’s hard to rise up to a top note and energyze when you’re hungry, and tired and fail to see the arisen or the sunset because you live in a smog city where your own breeding is toxic, is in it?
Apparently I stepped in crap, and ran it all over this thread. For this apologia here.
I do not accept the extermination of any being who does not pose immediate threat to body or known innocent party.
Other opinions may vary.
Apologia to all who venture this deep.
Iloverbee..
This is a fallow season. It will last a decade at the least. There is nothing that can be done when the soil turns sour but wait it out. This is how it is. Nature cures these eventualities, regardless of the bipeds.
It is likely that it is impossible to incite a mass of the population that can not screw in a lightbulb into an action that will be beneficial.
mmercier
no no no, you did not step on a cow cake, you don’t need to apologize, you where just admiring the peace of the country vast lands of plenty,
now that should relax you right?
bye
mmercier
oops you seem to know in advance my comment above,by your above above answer,
but you are right, but we cannot aford to wait that long, because AMERICA WILL NOT BE AMERICA ANY MORE, THE ONE WILL SELL IT TO THE UN. HE ALREADY SOLD THE PART OF THE OCEAN AFTER
200 MILLES, AND MORE OF,
BYE
mmercier
BOB WOODWORK HAS WRITTEN A BOOK ; THE PRICE OF POLITIC,
HE SAID THIS GOVERNENT IS TAKING AMERICA OVER THE CLIFF,
AND MORE
BYE
Folks, obama does not have a lead with likely voters. All the polls saying he did were revealed to have oversampled dems and/or undersample Reps or Independants. In some cases, the dem skew exceeded their 2008 turnout levels!
Don’t ease up, up don’t panic either.
Hard Right
thank you for the uplifting words, that will cheer up mmercier for sure,
as I am concerned I know they will do anything to discourage our efforts,
bye
about the book above i mentioned; BOB WOODWORD SAID THAT OBAMA SAID I WILL FIX IT,
AND HE DID NOT FIX IT HE CREW IT INSTEAD, HE SAID YOU CANNOT FIX HIS FAILURES, THERE IS TOO MANY.
IMAGINE THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD TEARING DOWN THE FLAG AND BURNING ITS REMNANTS AFTER HAVING BEEN BUDDY WITH OBAMA AND INVITED IN THE WHITE HOUSE,
THEY COME DANGEROUS ON THE BLACK MOON, DON’T TRUST THEM,
YOU KNOW WHEREWOLF? AND AND AND THOSE BLOOD THURSTY HALF ANIMAL
Hard Right
how about a good music like;
Los indios Tabajaras, and your choice of any one they have, it’s all beautiful guitare
@Hard Right:
I had no doubt that was the case. I wasn’t panicked at all because it didn’t make sense for the “jump” to have been so many days after the DNC Convention, nor for it to have gone up that far with the poor jobs report the next day. What is going on is that the leftist MSM is trying to discourage independents from voting by making them think that Obama is a “shoe-in to win.” The dishonesty of the “news” media using this tactic so close to the elections is simply more proof that much of the MSM has become nothing little more than a propaganda ministry of the Democratic party.
One of the things the left is trying to do is discourage us and pump up their base. They are willing to pull out all the stops and this is an example. I will predict Romney by 5% in the popular vote.
Thanks bees, I will check it out.
EDIT: Ditto, we must have posted within a minute or two of one another. Your post wasn’t there when I started.
I see we came to a similar conclusion about why the LSM would lie.
@Hard Right:
Great minds and all that jazz eh?
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Bees, I think it is no coincidence whatsoever that they picked today (11th anniversary of 9/11,) to storm the American Embassy. This has Al Qeada’s filthy fingerprints all over it.
Ditto
yes, it is even more beastly and demand OBAMA RECALLING THE EMBASSY PEOPLE TO RETURN HOME,
THEY ARE NOT SAFE THERE HAVING TO APOLOGIZE FOR THE MUSLIM VIOLENT ATTACKS,
Just before the election, the polls will show Obama with a 20 point lead.
Hoping that conservatives will believe them, get discouraged, and stay home on election day.