On The Brink of Defeat: Ukraine Loses Key Ground in Avdeevka

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by Simplicius The Thinker

Another huge breakthrough has occurred in Avdeevka that may have put the final nail in the coffin of the bitterly disputed town. Though Avdeevka is smaller than Bakhmut, Mariupol, and many other captured towns, it actually—in some ways—represents a crowning offensive achievement of the war because it has been fought for continuously the longest, and as a consequence, was the most fortified of any town.

I posted ‘Sitrep’ maps and updates from literally 2015 before, showing how the same exact areas like Yasinovskaya to the east of ‘Tsar’s Hunt’ was being contested with footage of battles nearly a decade ago. So for Avdeevka to fall now would be a monumental and symbolically watershed moment of this conflict.

The latest news brings us confirmation from both sides that Russian forces have in fact broken through to the ‘Industrial Avenue’ and beyond, which has entirely severed the city into two parts, cutting the supply route:


 

 
Here’s Ukrainian channel DeepState confirming it themselves:

 

As well as Bild’s Julian Roepcke:

 
You can see above that since our last update here there have been other advancements and expansions of territory, particularly around the big lake area and the suburb zone of the salient.

A wider view with supply routes visible:

 
Rumors have abounded in the past few days that Syrsky had withdrawn elite units from the Rabotino and Verbove fronts to immediately reinforce Avdeevka. This includes more of the 47th as well as the 3rd Assault Brigade, better known as ‘Azov’.

Some rumors claimed Syrsky was getting ready to launch a major northern ‘unblocking’ attack, in order to pull Russian forces away from the center. It is precisely what he did previously in Bakhmut, attempting to assault areas around Berkhovka to pressure Wagner’s flanks as they were making their way through the city. But seeing how telegraphed such an assault would be this time, many are rightfully skeptical.

It’s been four days since Syrsky withdrew from the southern front and transferred 3 brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to Avdeevka. The successes of this best elite assault brigade so far have been only failures.

Initially, I considered the actions of the 3rd OShBR on Avdeevka, and naively believed that they would be concentrated north of the city, and relying on the bridgehead in Ocheretino and Orlovka, they would try to “pull apart” the RF Armed Forces along the flanks, accompanying the assaults of 5-6 Btgr with artillery preparation.

But Syrsky’s command turned out to be “smarter.” They brought them into the city. And also in Berdychi and Tonenkoye, apparently to contain our “mites”. At the moment, yes. But not in the long run. Keeping the city and flanks in the fields with stormtroopers is a big deal.

What the above post is saying is, instead of using the new brigades to open up a new direction on Russia’s weaker flanks to the north, Syrsky instead threw the brigades directly into the center of battle. This was corroborated by a new video showing what is purported to be a 3rd ‘Azov’ Brigade MaxPro MRAP taking mortar fire precisely near the center of the AKHZ Coke Plant:


 
Geolocation:

 
What’s interesting though, is that reports claimed the ‘elite’ 47th was complaining that there aren’t any proper fortifications, and no time to set them up:

Avdiivka. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is increasingly throwing artillery and supplies from the rear into infantry battles in order to stop the offensive of the Russian Army. The 47th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports almost complete absence of fortifications and lack of time to equip them – round-the-clock attacks, they are more busy with evacuation and rotation. They sit in pits.

Such an expensive defense by artillery was observed by the AFU in Bakhmut exactly a year ago, obviously it did not justify itself, but allowed for a short period of time to plug holes in the front line.

Avdeevka was the most fortified place in existence but Russian mass fires and airpower has been regularly destroying all such fortifications, leaving little time to rebuild or fashion new ones.

Pro-Ukrainian channels, even military-linked ones, are fairly disconsolate as they fear Syrsky will once again grind down the best men in pointless defenses. One of the largest pro-UA OSINTers:

 
Deepstate UA:

Ukrainian TG channel DeepState reports: “It is worth making decisions that will first of all save the most valuable thing – the lives of soldiers, and not turn Avdiivka into another “fortress” with songs and poems.”

After witnessing the nightmare of Bakhmut, they now understand what awaits the soldiers in Avdeevka. But what’s most interesting, is you’ll recall that their narrative was previously that Bakhmut was a ‘successful operation’ because it allegedly grinded down such a disproportionate number of Russian troops, that the city defense served its purpose. But when that truth is put to the test in reality, Ukrainians instead recognize that it’s actually them getting ground down amid desperate calls for withdrawal. If Bakhmut was such a ‘success’, then they would be happy to keep their men in Avdeevka and inflict another such ‘success’ against Russian attackers.

In fact, the Bakhmut comparisons are making the rounds even on French TV. The report below confirms how Russian forces have fire control of the supply routes, which is generating far more casualties in the past few days than ever before. Soldiers who fought in Bakhmut and other tough battles told the French team that Avdeevka is now worse than them all:


 
One of the cited reasons for it being worse than Bakhmut is the Russian airpower is far more active in Avdeevka. With the industrialization of the UMPK bombs, Russian planes are dropping them round the clock, upwards of 100 per day just here alone. In Bakhmut, there was no such firepower.

For instance, read this report from a Ukrainian volunteer below:

A Ukrainian volunteer reports that in the first third of February alone, the Russian Aerospace Forces dropped about 460 aerial bombs from UMPK on the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This includes FAB-250/500/1500 and ODAB.

Here’s one view of Avdeevka from the south Tsar’s Hunt area, looking northward toward the AKHZ plant, through the Khimik highrise sector, with Fab bombs going off on AFU positions:


 
Here an AFU ‘defender’ in the AKHZ Coke Plant complains that Russia is raining down bombs on them 24/7 and not letting them ‘breathe’:


 

But it gets even worse for the AFU.

Amid rumors that Syrsky was planning a large-scale ‘unblocking operation’, the past two days were witness to several videos showing large AFU force concentrations allegedly ‘training’ somewhere in the rear area not far from Avdeevka:


 
It’s uncertain if it was meant as some kind of ‘threatening’ message toward Russian forces, but it may have instead precipitated something the Ukrainians didn’t expect.

Today, two devastating missile strikes occurred on Ukrainian troop concentrations. The first was a massive Iskander-M ballistic missile attack on precisely one of the ‘rear staging areas’ less than 30km from Avdeevka, in a town called Selidovo:

 
Sources began reporting that there were as high as 1,500 Ukrainian casualties because the Russian attack allegedly “triple-tapped” them by first hitting the gathering, then waiting until evacuation forces arrived and hitting them again—and most notably, some believe it was precisely the ‘Azov’ units that were there:

 
Even the top pro-UA accounts reported the potential for 1,500 casualties at once:

 
Rezident UA channel:

“Our source in the General Staff reported that Syrsky has ordered to suppress any information about losses at the training ground in Salidovo, the city was the main transit base for the reserves of the UAF, which were being gathered to unblock Avdeevka.”

All kinds of reports flooded in from both sides, with one of the common themes between the two being that the entire city was locked down, with SBU allegedly searching for infiltrators who might have transmitted the data about the gathering:

 
As well as reports from Ukrainians in the area of mass amounts of ambulances flooding the hospitals there:

 
Ex-Aidar deputy commander Ihor Mosiychuk once more confirmed the news from his sources:

 
He mentions something corroborated in Russian reports: that Iskanders with cluster munitions were allegedly used on the troop gathering.

More:

In the Selidovo area, traffic has been restricted; in the next 24 hours, the dead will be removed from the landfill. The SBU began searching for gunners among the locals who could help strike a concentration of enemy manpower at the training ground, which was hit by several missile strikes. The death toll is in the dozens.

AFU sector general Tarnavsky issued a damage control statement that there was no strike, or rather the number of casualties is Russian propaganda. However, a few AFU channels like the one below confirmed; though they made a strange ‘brag’ of it by basically saying “Russia only killed 200, not the claimed 1,500!”

 
Some of course have extrapolated that to mean 200 KIA with perhaps hundreds more wounded, but we may never learn the real amount. Needless to say, this was meant to be Avdeevka’s last stand and what is arguably an entire battalion was wiped off the face of the earth with a single strike. It’s a pretty demonstrative symbol of how Avdeevka is going.

If that wasn’t bad enough, on the same day there was another strike on Tsukirino, only 5km south of Selidovo at geolocation 48.090782, 37.290670:

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Ukraine has lost the war. There is no reason to give them more money.

This is why dems are trying to fear monger the American people.
How “russia putting weapons in space to take out satellites” leads to giving Ukraine a blank check forever is beyond reason.
But obama (I will not weaponize space) puppet master has joe pushing for more Ukraine money because of this.
Ironic that a much younger President Reagan was called “old and senile” for wanting to set up a space defense system, while a much older joe is “sharp-as-a-tack” for wanting the cash to do the same based on some contingency idea.
Russia has not done a thing in space but all this is just fear mongering for $$$ for joe’s crime family.

Trump could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours by dropping dead.

comment image

If Robin Ware/Robert L. Peters/JRB Ware/Pedo Peter/idiot Biden had dropped dead in 2020, there’d BE no war in Ukraine.

Greg would simply go down on his knees and do what he does best.

I am not your mother.

Another the end is near article. All the insight of a Biden speech. All the expertise and military knowledge of a Milley briefing. Reminds one of an MSNBC prediction predicting the war ending within a week two years ago. Now tell us about the vital strategic importance of this insignificant town.

What’s with “building fortifications?”
Is this WWI?
The Maginot Line didn’t work then and its modern-day imitation isn’t working now.
Also, what’s with this land warring?
Is this WWI?
Trench warfare just chews up men, it never works.

Perhaps those globalist elites who want to see the earth depopulated are in charge.

They’re holding back Putin’s invaders—the people he sent to kill Ukrainians and destroy things.

What’s with “building fortifications?”

Look up “Maginot Line.”
The Ukrainians are complaining that the Russians destroy their fortifications faster than they can build new ones.
Yup, because trench warfare is an old strategy, well dealt with by modern means.

Tucker was in Russia with a crew of him and three others for a week.
They shopped for four people for a week’s worth foods in a Moscow market.
Each of them guestimated what the total price would be.
As low as $300 to a bit over $400.
But the total, in American dollars was $103.
Inflation is so bad in the USA that we really have lost our ability to really price things anymore.
Maybe we need a Russian store here.

As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023…

Last edited 11 months ago by Greg

Tucker Carlson Visits Russian Grocery Store, Discovers Americans Have Been Told a Lie (VIDEO)

MUST WATCH: Marjorie Taylor Greene Responds to U.K. Foreign Minister Urging U.S. to Pass Ukraine Aid — ‘Kiss My @ss’

There is something very dark in Ukraine that people are willing to go to the mattresses in order to hide.
The money is not to fight a skirmish. There is something sinister at play here.

Avdiivka: Defenses Collapse, Ukrainians Evacuate in Chaos Before Being Encircled – Russian Flag Flies in Same Place Zelensky Took His Defiant Selfie

Avdiivka: Defenses Collapse, Ukrainians Evacuate in Chaos Before Being Encircled – Russian Flag Flies in Same Place Zelensky Took His Defiant Selfie (VIDEOS)

Wonder if Zelensky has a better exit strategy for his army than joe did for ours?

And, note to Nikki: chaos seems to be more a problem under dems than under Trump.
Nikki, what did you hate most about the Trump years?
No wars?
Middle East peace?
Strong American economy?
No inflation?
Growing 401Ks?
Low gas prices?
A full oil reserve?
Lower taxes?
A strong dollar?

And Navalny dead, too. A great day for Putin and Trump, eh?

Gonzalo Lira died of pneumonia. Maybe incels have weak lungs? What was he doing in Ukraine cranking out pro-Putin propaganda in the middle of a Russian invasion?

Last edited 11 months ago by Greg

I’ll bite. How many?

You saying shit doesn’t make it true.

Last edited 11 months ago by Greg

That’s where evidence presented in a courtroom comes in, and why Trump is spending hundreds of millions to avoid trial.

Last edited 11 months ago by Greg

greg is fine with that. They are political prisoners who do not support joey.

I saw what they did. It was televised. I also saw the son-of-a-bitch that incited them.

For most of my life America was in balance. I’m an old man, but I’m no longer sure America will outlive me. That’s what Trump has brought.

Last edited 11 months ago by Greg

You are confused. Why isn’t ray epps in jail?

Or the guy sho shot a gun twice?
Or the guy who planted the pipe bomb at the DNC?
How many plants did Deep State use to rile up the DC police into firing on the peaceful crowd?

Yeah, I could care less about some Russian victim of communist political in fighting. Cry me a river.

Avdiivka: Defenses Collapse, Ukrainians Evacuate in Chaos Before Being Encircled – Russian Flag Flies in Same Place Zelensky Took His Defiant Selfie (VIDEOS)

Navalny, yesterday.

There’s nothing hypocritical about it. We don’t want what Russia has, and that’s what Trump would bring. His words and actions tell us that. The people he surrounds himself with tell us that. He’s an authoritarian. He’s also unhinged. He wants power without restraint, relief from all accountability, and retribution, which translates as revenge. You’d have to be crazy to put such a man back in the White House.

Notice how Navalny was protective of the “elites,” whose assets would be “protected,” if his revolution succeeded.
Globalists, the WEF, the leftists, progressives are all led by those “elites.”
The rest of us can suffer and die.
Too bad he’s dead but his sentence was only for 3&1/2 years until he broke parole.
A prison above the Arctic Circle is always likely going to kill you.