That poll showing Barack Obama underwater in New York may not have been an outlier after all. Quinnipiac finds Obama’s approval plunging neighboring — and nearly-as-blue — New Jersey. While Chris Christie’s numbers have rebounded a little, Obama’s have slid to a new low:
President Barack Obama is headed in the wrong direction as New Jersey voters disapprove 52 – 44 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 50 – 46 percent positive score June 21 and the president’s lowest score ever in the Garden State.
Again, the gender gap is huge as men disapprove 60 – 37 percent while women approve 51 – 44 percent. Turning thumbs down on Obama are Republicans 93 – 6 percent and independent voters 57 – 39 percent. Democrats approve 77 – 17 percent. …
New Jersey voters say 49 – 45 percent that Obama does not deserve to be reelected, but say 45 – 37 percent that they would vote for Obama over an unnamed Republican challenger in the 2012 presidential race.
The independent vote is a big issue, although perhaps not in New Jersey as much as elsewhere. Democrats enjoy a large advantage in registration in the Garden State. In 2008, exit polls showed Democrats comprising 44% of the vote, compared to 28% for Republicans and independents alike. Obama cruised to a 57/42 win in New Jersey while only getting a 51-47 split among independents — and a 14/85 among Republicans.
A big turnout of Democrats would still lift Obama to a win in New Jersey, but these numbers suggest that might be a little more difficult this time around. Obama won Democrats 89/11 in 2008 when Hope and Change still filled the air. He’s now down to a 77/17 in a deep-blue state — not bad, but indicative of a loss of enthusiasm.
