Political advantage can be fleeting. A couple of months ago, during the winter quarter, job gains looked to be picking up, unemployment was easing lower, and President Obama’s reelection hopes looked more secure. But things sure have changed.
In recent weeks, a whole bunch of new economic stats have been pointing to a sputtering economy — maybe even an inflation-prone, less-than-2-percent-growth recession. Stocks have dropped five straight weeks, as they look toward slower growth, jobs, and profits out to year end. And Friday’s jobs report didn’t buck these trends.
“Anemic” is the adjective being tossed around the media. According to the Labor Department, nonfarm payrolls increased a meager 54,000 in May, while private payrolls gained only 83,000. A week or two ago, Wall Street expected 200,000-plus new jobs. Didn’t happen.
Perhaps the most telling weakness in the jobs report comes from the household survey, which is made up of self-employed workers. Think of mom-and-pop owned stores and small businesses. Think of the Main Street entrepreneurial families who make up the backbone of the economy, and for the matter the country. And they vote, too.
Well, household jobs increased a paltry 105,000 in May, after falling 190,000 in April. The jobless rate is determined by the household survey, and you really need a couple hundred thousand new household jobs a month — at least — to lower unemployment. And you really need about 300,000 household jobs a month to put a little torque behind the Main Street economy. But with the lackluster May report, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.1 percent from last month’s 9 percent and March’s 8.8 percent.
Suddenly President Obama has gone from reelect to big trouble. The economic rug has been pulled out from underneath him.
So what changed in the last couple of months or so? Answer: A nasty oil-, gasoline-, and commodity-price shock. It’s eating away at economic growth and jobs. It’s stalling the economy. And it has cut into consumer real incomes and business profits.
Much of this problem can be traced to the failure of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 pump-priming campaign. QE2 has not produced growth, but it has produced inflation. In fact, the consumer price index over the past four or five months has been running close to 6 percent annually.
I am sorry Curt but you must be thinking that matters are the same all over the United States as they are in California! If so this may explain why you do do not protest the things written in the articles you have quoted. Let me lay some things out to you…..In the following States unless you are content on flipping hamburgers you just about can not get a job, even Job agencies do not have much of anything to offer especially in the professional trades. Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Tennessee, Alabama, Idaho, Montana, and North and South Dakota and more….Check you State statistics they are all at a all time low! So what if there was a little pick up over the last few months….What about the Job losses that have not been made up for over the last two years. Hell during the Christmas holidays, Walmart one of the largest employers in the United States cut all of their employees other than management down to 12 hours a week! Can you live off of that? The six weeks that this was done so is actually worse than unemployment!!! We are talking about basically about 36,000 employees affected directly, not to mention the indirect affect which could be as high as 300% percent or more. Are we forgetting what the over all sales were for the holidays and how much they were down from the normal….how can you overlook that …..In case people forgot that period of the year is 40% of most retail sales for the year! Look at the number of repossessions of houses, and the number of credit card debts….. the number of cars repossessed,…….the numbers do not match!
Even more so the displaced natural flooding and weather condition victims, now climbing to over 200,000 people! In Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Iowa, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and even Illinois, does everyone think it is over for those people? Can you go to work in waist deep or more water? The waters are not receding yet, and due to the irresponsibility of our Government they were more concerned in supporting Al Gore and his green house effect programs than seeing and understanding the most obvious of effects caused by two of the hardest winters in over 70 years. Saving the flood victims of Pakistan and their agenda with the United Nations is more important, than providing jobs or tending to the needs of our citizens. If anyone thinks this will get better anytime soon! I have a banana plantation in Northern Canada I want to sell!!!
I am sorry to alarm you Curt, but the Job market is like a runaway train that is running out of track! It is much worse than it is represented in this article and it will not be getting better anytime soon! The majority of American families do not have another $200 a month to lose! between the tax reforms he is wanting impose and the increase in the cost of fuel, along with the increasing inflation in the price of food as it has been over the past two years is insane! The average American family will not survive it, and there are no relevant changes being made now to make it any different! My friend do not think I am being hard with you or disagree in your content but the figures are false and buffered at best! As you quoted the news media saying the economy is ““Anemic”…. It is not anemic it is dying!!!!! What has this government done since it was in office to create any Jobs???? Jobs opening due to fluctuation in the economy does not reflect any real proper political action by the Government but is reflective of American businesses still trying to over come the idiotic action of a out of control administration!
I guess they also took their household surveys in the flooded and tornado areas as well….but nobody was home! Plus all of the repossessed houses as well but nobody answered! Too bad they did not calculate what percentage of Shopping centers have unoccupied spaces and how much space is empty in Industrial parks over the past two years! These are the real figures!!!! As well as the devaluation of the US dollar on the international trade market! Jobs always increase during the entering of the third quarter of the year and most of them are temporal like school maintenance and summer park jobs which would account for the majority of these numbers.
Obama’s own union buddies could not refrain from BOOING him when he made fun of the car they build.
http://www.mrctv.org/videos/obamas-clumsy-jeep-analogy-gets-boos-chrysler-workers
The auto bailout cost taxpayers over $14 Billion.
But auto sales are still lower than last year (even with China buying so many cars).
Saw where some paper was quoting a poll saying he had 51% approval.
Problem was adults and not likely voters were polled. They also failed to break down the percentages of R, D, I, that people identified themselves as. In other words, another garbage poll.
My question to all you Obama bashers that don’t buy into ANY of the polls that continue to show him at 50%+ approval. What are you gonna do when Romney (currently leading in Iowa and N.H.) wins the nomination?
Guess you’ll have to wait and see, rich. No one here can speak for every conservative or indy voter. If Romney loses, then your POTUS can further reign over the economic demise of the US, and won’t be able to continue to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by blaming the guy that went before, and after him, will he?
The Wall Street Journal put up an article about economic policy, Obama and polling.
In it was this quote: “If you have 55% saying economy is poor, how can you possibly get re-elected if you ground your campaign on a backward-looking appraisal of your performance?”
55% of Americans polled said the economy is POOR.
I don’t know the poll, but there would also be a group who feel the economy is bad but not ”poor.”
Then there are the somewhat OK group and finally those who believe the economy is excellent.
Obama cannot get re-elected.
The economy is far more ”in your face” than anything Obama can pull as a diversion.
Every month we get new data points on the failure of ”Obamanomics.”
NanG Yours would be an interesting poll, choices; POOR,BAD (which is worse?)SOMEWHAT O.K. EXCELLENT. How far before election day did businesses “know Obama was going to win?”
Mata I’m only asking for individual responses in #6
I believe MOST voters would say Obama inherited a very rocky economy and it hasn’t turned around as yet.Bush got 8 should Obama get the same? That’s what voters will decide.
@rich wheeler:
Specifically, people knew Obama would win the presidency once he secured the Democrat nomination, around the 1st week of June, 2008.
So, I would go from there.
When McCain took the Republican nomination people knew he was quite a wishy-washy candidate who would lead to lots of Republicans/Conservatives staying home or going 3rd party.
___________________
As to the poll…..I only saw the WSJ quote from it, not the poll.
So, usually there are four categories….
One was ”poor,”
We know that, because the WSJ quotes it.
What the two middle ones were called, I only guessed.
The other end of the spectrum would be ”excellent.”
NAN G “people knew Obama would win the Presidency once he secured the nomination” Why did the Repubs even bother?
rich wheeler you are full of it! On what basis do you spit out this stuff? At least chickens cackle before taking a shit! I bet you don’t travel no further than 20 miles from home! So what do you think the next one will inherit? You remind of an idiot kicking a dead horse and expecting maggots not to come out! I don’t know why you address Mataharley? She has better things to do than to invest time in such stupidity!
@rich wheeler, #10:
And what would have happened, had they won? No stimulus spending; no unemployment compensation extensions; a confrontational stance toward Russia… General Motors would be history. (Unless, of course, they’d gotten back into the business of building tanks.) Who knows what we’d have gotten into by now with Iran, or North Korea? Ms. Palin would have had less time for book tours and television, I suppose. Lots of things would be different. We tend to forget how busy the Obama Administration has been. Of course, one person’s achievement is another person’s annoyance. Or evidence of a socialist conspiracy.
Hoffman I met smarter 13 year old Jews at Bar Mitzvahs 50 yrs ago on L.I. Grow up .
says “don’t travel no further than”.Where did you learn to speak English?
Mata,a great Navy wife,and I go way back at F.A. I believe your rantings are relatively new.
Semper Fi
Yes, rich… they will indeed decide. However I’m not so confident as you that voters will reward Obama with another four, considering the anemic, government supported “recovery summer” of last year is crashing down around their ears, in the double dip housing market (which you and I have discussed before, and you know that’s what I always believed would happen), and unemployment that is unlikely to show any substantial relief during a campaign year.
It will not help Obama should Bernanke launch QE3, since now even economists who’ve been bullish are started to see it was more bulls*#t instead. It’s also somewhat bizarre that we need to root for EU countries’ failures since that’s the only way the dollar rallies… and it’s having a hard time doing that even under their woes. That means we’re not only guaranteed continued high prices across the board, but still remain ever fragile to our reserve currency status.
I know you’re unlikely to be a fan of anything that happens to appear on Heartland’s blog, but they found Jim Lakely’s article from their social blogs contribution so insightful historically, they reproduced his piece, “The ‘Recovery’ from The Great Recession is not Sustainable”, on their main blog. The included three charts on GDP growth, unemployment and homeownership, all with recessions marked in grey areas, show this is not only a fake bolstered “recovery” that was unsustainable, but was compounded by the government’s desire to “help”.
Notice exactly when the surge of home ownership began… 1995. Coincidently the time that Clinton and his Treasury Sec’y, Robert Rubin, rewrote the CRA regulations and the push for the GSE’s to lower lending standards got going. By 1998, the unnatural increase in home prices started shooting straight up as well. Ultimately, as I’ve repeatedly said, it was the overvalue of homes that sealed our fate on housing. Even now, the tax credits for purchases and loans done over the past couple of years are just new adds to the ever growing toxic assets in home ownership.
I have no clue what voters will do in 2012. I also have an extreme distrust of what the GOP will attempt to foist upon us as an alternative. But I know one thing…. pulling the ballot in 2012 for one of two candidates – both of whom are absolutely guaranteed to be extremely distasteful to their own respective parties – is going to be the mother of all mothers “holding your nose” elections for all US citizens… regardless of their party affiliation.
@Greg, it appears you are again trafficking in that parallel universe argument = truth bit again. Didn’t I warn you to keep your day job, and not depend upon your tarot card abilities? LOL
Mata I agree with much of what you say. The unsustainable run up in real estate created a false boom.We saw it as realtors.People were using their homes as piggy banks taking LOC’S to buy all kinds of things they didn’t need.Lending practices were loose,appraisers were reckless the greater fool concept similar to the dot -com fiasco was in full swing.The crash was inevitable.Here in S. Cal so many Real Estate related jobs were lost.
The Dem Congress pushed greater Home Ownership and the Bush Admin strongly endorsed the concept.
It’s a good concept,socially correct and a worthy goal.But “greed is good” was in full swing and greed brought us down.
Neither Bush nor Obama are the culprits.Both are good men with great families and I believe strong moral values.
Greed on Wall Street, and in the Mortgage Industry (as you know I’ve worked in and observed both over many years) spread throughout America and the ensuing crash was deafening.
rich, I will agree that I actually hold at least Bush and Obama not so culpable in the housing crash. I will not give Congress that pass. People tend to be generic in the blanket blame of deregulation or regulation. Regulations, or deregulations, have effects. And in the case of housing, both regulation and deregulation had negative effects. All are under the control of a blind and corrupt Congress (both parties).
As far as Presidents, Bush, at least, recognized the dangers of the GSE’s fragile position and eminent danger and attempted to do something. Not enough of a corrupt Congress, under GOP control, would take a stand against the minority Dems because too many are on the lobbyist take. Obama is post crash, and post Congressional regulations since he’s effectively a nobody on the political stage who was packaged and elected by stagers. Now Clinton? He most certainly holds culpability, and definitely Robert Rubin. Of course, putting the nation on the road to a housing crash wasn’t enough for Rubin. He had to travel to Citibank, and wreak havoc there as well.
But here’s the thing that irks me… this vague reference to “wall street” when, in fact, “wall street” is made up of shareholders of publicly traded companies…. teachers, firemen, normal Joe Blow working class citizens who are involved if, not directly, with 401Ks as those evil “speculators”. If there is a “wall street” to be held accountable, it’s the financial institutions themselves.
Unfortunately, between them ecstatically being noodged into easy money lending, and then being blessed with 0 rates, topped with no risk opportunities post bailout, the only part of “wall street” that was rewarded was the same who deserved none. And this is only a small portion under Bush/Paulson (half of the original TARP), and the balance under Obama.
So I do have criticism for the “cures” begat by Congress, and then implemented by both POTUS.
@Greg:
****FACEPALM****
Commrade Greg-So much stupid contained in one person.
1) No stimulus spending would have been good. All it did was put us massively in debt
2) Unemployment compensation? Greg must be psychic to predict what the GOP would do on the issue.
3) Oh yes, that confrontational stance cost us the Cold War…um wait…
4) No dimbulb, GM would still be around, unemcumbered by union parasites and likely building better, and more profitable cars.
5) Ah yes, NK and Iran have shown themselves to be sooo peaceful, sane, and open to talking out their differences with us. (roll eyes)
Greg, if you want to be lemming you are free to do so (preferably in another country), but don’t expect those of us that are sane and capable of facing reality to be one or approve of such behavior.
@rich wheeler: What did I hit a nerve in your perfect little world Wheeler? Suck it up boy! little liberal pansey! For your information I speak six languages fluently, and you can not master even one! Kuyah Black! Kag delah? See if you can figure this one out! Ey techlo Shaad do!
Bah nun! in my watch baby boy! And when you die they will say Yamach shemo! Now with all of your intellect How many languages are here bozo! Just like these issues you have not the faintest idea! How many generation has your poor family been here? Poor because you have learned nothing! I read your rantings and you probably come from some poor ass communist country and I am sure you have no comprehension of the words Semper Fi ! You were most likely someones desk clerk! By the way I have three engineering degrees, what do you do for a living? sell used cars? The space and time you use of others here is a total waste…In short you do not deserve the answers they take the time to give you! It is obvious in your replies, the evidence speaks for itself! FYI I am a 5th generation Virginian, we have given more generals and presidents than any other State, and I have served this country in places you don’t even know exist!
@rich wheeler: So who made a $10 billion dollar bail out for the bankers? Numb nuts! I suppose you could dig that out of your pocket! yea! Who was the candidate who said he was going to take from the rich and redistribute to the poor? Oh! hell I guess BP and the mortgage companies are also part of what is called “poor” yeah like poorly managed and richly benefited! Greatest ecological disaster in the century contributed to your hero! 26 billion dollars in tourism lost last year in the Gulf Coast region. Great Job Obamination!
Hoffman You’re a wimp.C’mon out to San Clemente Marine Corps Monument by the pier and this old jarhead Captain will kick your ass then buy you a beer.Anytime bigshot.
fyi When referencing distance farther is correct. I assume with all your degrees you’re better at math.
Semper Fi
@rich wheeler: It is not my math ole boy! It is the math of people who don’t have the time to talk to liberals like you! I got you out ranked anyway! Why would any true Marine want to live in a State that even refuses them to land in their Airports when coming home from serving this country? The statue is not alive, but you supposedly are! So come alive Marine your country needs you! Revive what is left and join the real battle to turn this country around! We need to take it back from the God hating administration who is killing everything you served for! Remember we took an oath to protect this country from both foreign and domestic enemies! We have domestic enemies in the White house with the Kenyan and Jihadist Hillary! This wimp has already sent more terrorist than you can imagine to the great recycle bin from Laos, El Salvador, Guatemala, Colombia, Peru and Lebanon! I do not know what you did in the Corp, but I will be happy to introduce you to them when we get to the great Marine reunion and I will save the Ass kicking for the people who really deserve it! I do not claim to be a bigshot this is just the hand life has dealt me! but like a good marine I did not cry or whine… I stayed true to my oath and did my job! If you are ever in the Gulf Coast or in Peru, Bahrain or Israel look me up! Every Marine is my brother and every Israeli is my family!
Hoffman It’s CORPS.You claim you were an OFFICER OF MARINES?
@rich wheeler: Find life elsewhere! I just finished a 16+ hour day! I thought you were worthy of an answer….my mistake! It was just a typo error.. get real or get out! Or maybe you are just suffering from Cali-fornication or old age and can’t help yourself!
I’ m sorry Mac but any Marine that can’t spell Marine Corps is the one suffering from something.
‘ The Kenyan and Jihadist Hillary in the White house” That provides a clue.
@rich wheeler: Another cheap shot! just like all the rest of you liberals you only offer cheap criticism and never answer anything! In short “empty”
@rich wheeler: The three latest polls all ending 6/5, has his average approval rating at 48%. When you figure in the older polls, the latest of which ended 5/30, his approval stands at 50.1% which means according to the latest polls there is a downward trend. One of the latest polls to come out ABC/Wash Post, which is usually favorable to him, paints a bleaker picture as well. Good try using the older polls to pad his approval numbers! Remember, 2012 is a long way off in the world of politics and anything can happen between now and then. The OBL kill is already becoming a moot point for his approval ratings. People vote their pocket books and for most of us, they are a lot lighter since he took office.
http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/obama-economy-polls/2011/06/07/id/399059
another vet The good news (and the bad news?) is Romney is the only Repub.who is close to BHO in the polls. Who’s your pick for POTUS? Please don’t tell me it’s too early.Fred Thompson said that in 08 and it cost him the nomination.
That’s not what cost Thompson the nomination, rich. First, he never had much support from the start. It didn’t help he missed the first debate after his Sept declaration. Had lackluster energy and made a few gaffes. Showed him down in the southern states, that he really needed. Withdrew in January after four months of a half hearted attempt.
Had he hit the road with aggression, or what Palin refers to as “fire in the belly”, it might have been different. But Thompson’s charm was an easy going style. Unfortunately, “easy going” in a brutal presidential primary doesn’t always translate to enough press and name recognition.
Don’t care about polls. Too early. People are getting into the race. Republicans will have to listen to the lip service, weigh it against their records, and then make a decision.
Why, pray tell, do you keep asking? So that you can have someone identify a target just so you can tear it apart today? Of what possible interest is it to you?
Mata I believe if Thompson had come in well before S. Carolina primary and had campaigned hard there and in Fla. and Texas , with his very smart and beautiful wife Jeri,Mac would have been stopped cold.
As a political junkie ,like yourself, I am simply interested in the process and in who individual F.A. posters are supporting for POTUS.
rich, you’re only half right.
Your correct part was “campaigned hard”. He didn’t, which was his flaw. The SC primary wasn’t until January 19th, and a Sept declaration is ample time for any candidate with heart to gain momentum. I really liked Thompson, as did johngalt. However he simply didn’t demonstrate enough “fire in the belly” to get anywhere for support.
As far as your perpetual queries on who the FA community individuals support… well, that may change from day to day because we are so early in the game. Right now many are jockey’ing for early poll position. Romney’s busy trying to reinvent himself as something akin to a conservative, but will find that uphill for those of us who know his history both on healthcare and on wind power in MA. As time goes by, someone who looks good, or not so interesting at the beginning, may fare well in debates down the line. So asking us this early in the game seems like an invitation for someone, like yourself, to start early in the “he/she can’t win” or another negative right out of the gate. While it may be entertaining fodder for you, I have to wonder how the Democrats who were strongly behind John Edwards felt when he suspended his campaign early 2008, after announcing so ungodly early (about the same time the professional campaigner, Obama, did) in Dec 2006.
oh what a difference time can make, eh?
Frankly, starting this early in campaigns drives me nuts. We just go over one. I’d like a bit of reprieve from the mudslinging before we have to go thru this crap again.
@MataHarley: You ask…”Why, pray tell, do you keep asking?” Just like all liberals it is a record with a broken needle type of thing! But the fact remains “You can’t fix stupid!” It is much like the little charity boxes you see around when they have only one coin in them they make a lot of noise! If you notice there are many of the Obama worshipers in here that they enjoy shooting out a one line response to entangle you into giving a explanatory response and never answer more than 2% percent of the questions that are presented! they lack the ability to analyze and present as you know very very few of the Obama defenders have any objectivity to them! They remind me of Parrots who were trained to say “Obama is great!” “Obama is great!” “Obama is great!” “Obama is great!” Like I said you can’t fix stupid!
@MataHarley:
I have to agree with your comments about why Fred Thompson failed in his bid. I favored him, and still like him, but he didn’t seem to really be in the race when he needed to be. I pretty much wanted anyone but McCain or Romney at the time.
@rich wheeler:
Can we conservatives here assume that you will be voting for Obama again?
John Galt I was very impressed with Romney’s CNN interview yesterday.I will vote for a man who I believe can keep his BIG HEAD in the game. The Tea Party gals are unimpressive and devisive. I ‘ll watch Paul. Like you I am a strong believer in The Fair Tax he expouses.
I want a smart energetic POTUS,strong on civil rights,human rights,protector of our environment.
A defender of free speech and a strong military.Like a majority of Americans I still want a Uniter.
Let the Games Begin
@rich wheeler: It’s not too early to tell you my pick for 2012- it’s whoever runs against Obama. As for the my selection for the Republican nominee, it IS too early. What makes you think the field is set? Check out Ike in ’52, Humphrey in ’68, and Clinton in ’92. All late comers. Ike didn’t throw in until March ’52! I think your elation with the polls every time Obama goes over 50% shows that perhaps you are the one worrying too much, too early. You seem to be telling us that we may as well throw the towel in and the field isn’t even set yet.
Make no mistake, should Obama be defeated in 2012, I will not worship the ground the new President walks on and treat him/her like the Second Coming the way Obama’s die hard supporters seem to worship him. I believe worshiping another human being is not healthy especially if that person is a politician. Politicians who are blindly worshiped have a tendency to take their followers and everyone else over the cliff.